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Ukraine’s post-war economic story will not initially be written by startups or fintech. It will be written in fields, furnaces, mines, pipelines, and ports (and drone production).
Russian missiles continue pounding Ukraine’s energy infrastructure despite President Vladimir Putin’s unilateral declaration of a ceasefire on May 9th. Earlier, Russian Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak announced the suspension of Kazakh crude oil supplies via the Druzhba pipeline to Germany starting May 1st. This pipeline, which became operational in the 1960s, runs from Tatarstan, Russia, and branches through Belarus and Ukraine to supply Germany and Poland via the northern branch, and Slovakia and Hungary via the southern branch. While Novak claimed the move to stop the flow of oil from Kazakhstan contracted by Germany was due to “technical possibilities,” the PCK Schwedt refinery near Berlin, which supplies most of Berlin’s fuel and relies on Kazakhstan for 17% of its crude supplies, will be hit hardest. In seeking to wean themselves from Russian oil, the Germans made an error—they continued to depend on Russian infrastructure for delivery. Germany was also addicted to the Russian gas way past the 2014 Russian invasion of Ukraine, low cost and ease of access being too tempting to give up despite geopolitical dependence.
The world is fighting a two-front energy war. One front runs through the Strait of Hormuz, where Iran and the United States are locked in a standoff. My old acquaintance, International Energy Agency Executive Director Fatih Birol, called this the worst energy shock in history, more severe than the 1970s oil crisis and the Ukraine war combined. The second front runs through the heart of Europe, where Ukrainian drones are systematically dismantling Russia’s oil export infrastructure while Moscow, stung and furious, ispunishing its neighbor and ally, Kazakhstan, and its former energy customer, Germany, for it.
In the Middle East, Iran’s theocratic government is facing an abrupt leadership change as U.S. and Israeli forces launch coordinated military operations, including Operation Epic Fury and Operation Roaring Lion. The conflict has raised concerns among analysts about regional security and potential disruptions to global energy markets. Tehran’s strategic ties with China and Russia further complicate the situation, influencing both military dynamics and international energy flows.
The U.S./Israel-Iran war is not just a confrontation with the Shia theocratic dictatorship in Iran and the Iranian proxies, like the Houthis and Hezbollah, involved in combat operations. Iran’s patrons and backers, primarily China and Russia, factor heavily in the mix. And there is no greater backer of Iran than Russia.
After U.S.-Israeli combat operations began against Iran on Saturday, February 28th, global energy prices surged as the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps announced that passage through the Strait of Hormuz was “not allowed.” This narrow body of water (the navigation channel is only two-miles wide) moves 20%-30% of the world’s supply of crude oil and liquified natural gas every day, including the majority of exports from major hydrocarbon-producing countries in the Persian Gulf. Commercial vessels are now avoiding passage through the Strait. On Monday, Iran announced that any ship trying to pass would be attacked. If these disruptions persist through a prolonged blockade, they will seriously threaten global energy supplies.
President Donald Trump promised to reconsider tariffs on India if New Delhi ceases purchasing Russian crude oil. Targeting Moscow’s second-largest crude oil buyer strikes directly at the Kremlin’s financial underbelly in its war of attrition against Ukraine. While this leverage may prove consequential as peace talks are limping, some in Washington worry that pressure on India is strengthening those in New Delhi arguing for “strategic autonomy”, including the India’s Foreign Minister S Jaishankar. Speaking to the media in at the Munich Security Conference, he refused to a give a clear answer to the question whether India is cutting its Russian oil purchases. In the meantime, a political row exploded in New Delhi as the Congress-led opposition has accused Narendra Modi’s government of “selling out under pressure”. Overplaying Washington’s hand could reduce future avenues for cooperation to contain China in Southeast Asia or the Middle East with Indian support, through the I2U2 and other frameworks.
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The Russia-Ukraine war has been brutal to the Russian energy sector. New problems are emerging, and old issues are accumulating as Russia enters 2026. Losing Syria in December of 2024 and Venezuela in January 2026 exposes Russia’s global ambition as an emperor with no clothes. Ukraine’s bloody slog comes at a huge cost.
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Exporting energy has long been recognized as a money-making machine for Moscow. It has not only filled the Kremlin’s war chest but also generated immense personal wealth for Russian leaders and affiliated oligarchs. But in 2025, the picture of Russian energy became much more complicated. The Russian energy sector now functions not only as a strategic asset but also as a source of vulnerability exposed by war, sanctions, and asymmetric attacks.
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A year after former Syrian President Bashar al-Assad’s Ba’athist dictatorship collapsed under the blows of Ahmed El-Sharaa’s Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (Organization for the Liberation of the Levant) Islamist militia, the Kremlin, the patron of the deposed regime has not disappeared. Despite expectations, Russia has not withdrawn from Syria, but instead has retrenched itself “under new management.”
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Russia’s war machine is showing unmistakable signs of strain. After nearly four years of fiscal overreach caused by injecting trillions of rubles into the Russian economy, the Kremlin can no longer disguise its distress. American envoys met in Geneva on Sunday, November 23rd with Ukrainian officials to discuss a permanent ceasefire, however, this is no time to go easy on Moscow, as U.S. sanctions seem to be working.
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When Kazakhstan’s president Kassym Jomart Tokayev announced, during a meeting with President Trump in the Oval Office, that Kazakhstan would join the Abraham Accords, markets rejoiced, and the decision was lauded in boardrooms and policy chanceries from Washington to Beijing and from New York to Shanghai. Kazakhstan's joining transformed the process initiated by President Donald J. Trump in his first term from Arab-Israeli diplomatic normalization to a historic rapprochement between Islam and Judaism. If a Christian country such as Armenia or Cyprus joins, it will become truly Abrahamic.
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The U.S.-China competition for AI dominance is on, and one key arena where China has so far outrun the competition is the emergence of “cloud cities” or “smart cities” – mega-cities that integrate AI-run capabilities and robotics to run things more efficiently, and help to mitigate negative impacts on the environment, improving the quality of life for citizens. The negative aspect of this trend from the citizen’s eye view may involve concerns about privacy and monitoring, which has required advanced thinking and preparation in countries where individual freedom ranks high on the value scale, such as the U.S. and the EU.
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While Russia’s economic performance has been lackluster as its war economy struggles to underpin growth, a clear bright spot remains: nuclear energy. Following the Shanghai Cooperation Organization Summit, where the Power of Siberia 2 pipeline progress dominated headlines, Rosatom signed a memorandum with China National Nuclear Corporation (CNNC) on personnel collaboration, building on recent wins in Central Asia, Europe, and North Africa. Rosatom has customers lined up worldwide, but as financing problems and global competition build, the jury is out on whether they can expand on their recent success. As the United States seeks to modernize its moribund nuclear power capabilities, Russia’s Rosatom stands as both a competitor and a model.
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The spectacular displays at the 2025 Shanghai Cooperation Organization summit in Tianjin were carefully crafted to showcase the evolution of Xi Jinping’s Beijing-centric political bloc which aspires to rival Washington. The U.S. administration is embracing an “America First” agenda and using tariffs as a foreign policy battering ram. Meanwhile, President Trump may be on to something in writing “Please give my warmest regards to Vladimir Putin and Kim Jong Un as you conspire against the United States of America.”
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The U.S.-Russian confrontation is escalating. President Trump has threatened 100 percent secondary tariffs on countries buying Russian oil and other exports, promising to impose them within 50 days unless Russia and Ukraine reach a ceasefire. The Senate, led by Sens. Lindsay Graham (R-SC) and Richard Blumenthal (D-CT), is proposing a 500 percent tariff package targeting nations that purchase Russian energy resources, including oil, gas, and uranium.
Russia, meanwhile, is opening a new front in the strategic South Caucasus. Ukrainian military intelligence (HUR) recently published a military order directing reinforcements to the Russian base in Armenia, a move HUR spokesperson Andrei Yusov described as part of Moscow’s strategy to “destabilize the global security situation.”
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This edition of the Global Take features Dr. Ariel Cohen's appearance on i24 News, where he analyzes developments in the talks between Russia and Ukraine in Istanbul as President Trump visits the Middle East.
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Governments are seeking to leverage AI investment to accelerate societal and economic development and bootstrap to the next level of economic development. While some observers express concerns that the growth of AI could widen the gap between the developed world and emerging markets, it also provides an opportunity for energy-rich developing countries to technologically leapfrog. Few regions are better equipped to exploit this uranium and AI boom than the world’s largest exporter of uranium: Kazakhstan.
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The United States and Ukraine signed a long-awaited deal on April 30 to give the U.S. priority access to Ukrainian critical minerals and other natural resources. After months of acrimonious disputes and negotiations over a ceasefire/peace between Russia and Ukraine, U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent is now touting the agreement as a signal to Russia that “the Trump Administration is committed to a peace process centered on a free, sovereign, and prosperous Ukraine,” NBC reported. If that is the case, the signed agreement may be a step in the right direction. But consistent American military and diplomatic aid, in coordination with European allies, will be necessary to clinch a sustainable solution to the 11-year-old war.
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President Donald J. Trump’s efforts to attain peace between Russia and Ukraine have already prompted questions about the future of Russian energy exports, the country’s main cash cow, and whether the door will open to joint projects between Russia and the E.U or the U.S. Whatever progress is made in any negotiations, will be difficult if not impossible to go back to pre-2022 arrangements. Doing so isn’t necessarily in the E.U.’s or America’s strategic or economic interests.
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Ariel Cohen discusses the water security challenges faced by the Central Asian states and potential solutions to these issues at a panel event with The Clingendael Institute.
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Just as President Volodymyr Zelensky was preparing to arrive in Washington D.C. on Friday, February 28th to sign an unprecedented US-Ukraine agreement on strategic minerals, Vladimir Putin came up with a proposal of his own, involving joint development with the U.S. of rare earth metals, aluminum, and hydro power in Russia. It’s trolling of 99th level.
At face value, this could be seen as a step towards renormalizing U.S.-Russia trade relations. President Trump is entertaining the notion of economic rapprochement but isn’t ready to commit yet. Economic cooperation comes after the cease-fire or peace accord in Ukraine, not before. On February 27th, only a couple of days after Putin’s proposal, Trump extended wide-ranging sanctions on Russia. Meanwhile, US Russia watchers are telling this author that Putin’s offer is nothing more than a troll to counter the Trump-Zelensky mineral deal.
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Water security is an urgent issue that demands immediate attention from Central Asian governments, businesses, civil society, and their international partners. Climate change, population growth, infrastructure problems, a lack of government foresight, and the unequal distribution of precious water resources between the upstream countries (Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan) and the downstream nations (Kazakhstan, Turkmenistan, and Uzbekistan) have created a ”perfect storm” of pressing water insecurity.
The 2021 Central Asia drought, the loss of the Aral Sea, the evaporation of glaciers in the Tian Shan mountains, and the alarming shrinking of the Caspian Sea are reminders of how natural and man-made disasters have destructive consequences on Central Asia’s strained water resources.
This report addresses the status of water security across the five Central Asian countries, outlining recent developments, ongoing
challenges, and opportunities for improvement. Geopolitically, interstate tensions and the role of international politics—e.g., influence from the West, Russia, and China and tensions with Afghanistan—all will continue to affect the region’s water security. This report will address international cooperation in projects for water sharing, including the current and future role of agencies like the International Fund for Saving the Aral Sea and partners like the United States Agency for International Development, the
World Bank, and extraregional governments. The report concludes with a holistic set of policy recommendations to help improve water security in Central Asia.
Read the full report here: Central Asia needs regional and international cooperation to bolster water security - Atlantic Council
As international tensions grow, scientific developments become more crucial than ever to creating war-winning technologies. There is a reason the Manhattan Project was kept under strict security measures – and even then, there were leaks.
Beginning in the 1940s, Stalin’s USSR used intelligence to steal America’s atomic secrets and develop nuclear weapons. Throughout the Cold War, the Soviets ran a massive spying operation to gain access to submarine, computer, and space tech. In preparation for its 2022 invasion of Ukraine and as the conflict continued, Russia ramped up its intelligence gathering and influence activities around the world. Recently, concerns have once again been raised that Moscow has had an unobstructed path to obtaining information about cutting-edge nuclear technology from the European Organization for Nuclear Research (CERN).
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Russia and Iran signed a mutual defense and security cooperation pact on Jan. 17 — just days before President Trump’s inauguration. Both nations are primary opponents of the U.S., demonstrated by Russia’s war against Ukraine and Iran’s attempts to assassinate Trump, its regular proclamations of “Death to America, death to Israel!” and its backing of terrorist proxies Hamas, Palestinian Islamic Jihad, the Houthis and Hezbollah.
This new pact represents the next move in a long game to shift the global balance of power away from the U.S. and its allies. Although the new administration is coming into office with many pressing agenda items, the Moscow-Tehran partnership needs quick attention before it leads to threats, bloodshed and more war.
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