Renewable Energy Investors Receive Mixed Signals In The U.S.
The Trump Administration’s energy policies are shifting the investment priorities in American renewable energy, and not to its benefit. But the jury is still out whether the green transition can be stopped or reversed.
In the first quarter of 2025, approximately $8 billion in clean energy investments and 16 large-scale projects were cancelled – the highest drop on record and the first decline since the Biden Administration enacted the barely effective Inflation Reduction Act which strongly favored the renewables. Among the companies that changed their plans were T1 Energy, formerly known as Freyr Battery, Kore Power, and many other solar, battery, and EV manufacturers. Projections still indicate that the U.S. will continue to increase its added renewable generation capacity in 2025, with Texas leading the way, profiting regardless of subsidies.
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Trump’s Tariff Pressure Can Stimulate U.S.–Asia Energy Cooperation
U.S. President Donald Trump's Energy Dominance Council plans to host a liquified natural gas summit in Alaska on June 2, where it hopes to announce that Japan and South Korea have committed to the long-pursued Alaska LNG project to ease American gas shipments to Asia.
Since his return to the Oval Office, Trump has positioned hydrocarbons as the backbone of the U.S. energy portfolio and also as a lever for exerting America’s geopolitical influence on the global stage.
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Gloomy Days For Global Solar Power
The tariffs announced by the Trump Administration at the beginning of April have cast a shadow across international energy supply chains. The new policies were delayed for ninety days less than a week later, and the much-feared shortages and price hikes haven’t yet materialized. Nevertheless, the mood in the industry remains pessimistic.
In May, the U.S. Department of Commerce announced that companies based in Cambodia, Malaysia, Thailand, and Vietnam are dumping solar panel cells at low rates into the U.S. market while receiving subsidies from the Chinese government, setting the stage for the imposition of tariffs on all parties involved.
Trump’s Nuclear Revival: Playing Catch Up
President Donald Trump signed four executive orders on May 23rd to enhance America’s nuclear energy production capabilities. U.S. demand for electricity is projected to grow by almost 16% by 2029 after having been nearly flat for over two decades. A combination of factors is driving the need for more power, led by a jump in commercial construction, including data centers for AI-driven computing and manufacturing plants. Nuclear energy can offer a zero-emission source of stable baseload electricity even when the sun doesn’t shine and the wind doesn’t blow, but as the World Nuclear Association points out, almost all U.S. nuclear generating capacity comes from reactors built between 1967 and 1990. Nuclear sector reform in the US has been overdue since President Jimmy Carter and his successors hit the brakes on development and piled on too many regulations.
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Will Kazakhstan’s Uranium Fuel An AI Boom In Central Asia?
Governments are seeking to leverage AI investment to accelerate societal and economic development and bootstrap to the next level of economic development. While some observers express concerns that the growth of AI could widen the gap between the developed world and emerging markets, it also provides an opportunity for energy-rich developing countries to technologically leapfrog. Few regions are better equipped to exploit this uranium and AI boom than the world’s largest exporter of uranium: Kazakhstan.
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Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s Crackdown In Turkey Throttles European Energy
Befitting its status as a country bridging Europe and Asia, the Turkish government’s massive crackdown on the country’s Republican People’s Party (CHP) opposition party and arrest of Ekrem Imamoğlu, mayor of Istanbul and leader of the CHP, has immediate implications for the entire region. Recent events are raising alarm bells in Europe that Turkish chaos could hurt an already energy-hungry Europe, which depends on Türkiye’s energy transit.
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Why The EU And U.S. May Not Rescue Russia’s Energy Industry
President Donald J. Trump’s efforts to attain peace between Russia and Ukraine have already prompted questions about the future of Russian energy exports, the country’s main cash cow, and whether the door will open to joint projects between Russia and the E.U or the U.S. Whatever progress is made in any negotiations, will be difficult if not impossible to go back to pre-2022 arrangements. Doing so isn’t necessarily in the E.U.’s or America’s strategic or economic interests.
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Putin’s Trolling: A Strategic Minerals Offer For Trump
Just as President Volodymyr Zelensky was preparing to arrive in Washington D.C. on Friday, February 28th to sign an unprecedented US-Ukraine agreement on strategic minerals, Vladimir Putin came up with a proposal of his own, involving joint development with the U.S. of rare earth metals, aluminum, and hydro power in Russia. It’s trolling of 99th level.
At face value, this could be seen as a step towards renormalizing U.S.-Russia trade relations. President Trump is entertaining the notion of economic rapprochement but isn’t ready to commit yet. Economic cooperation comes after the cease-fire or peace accord in Ukraine, not before. On February 27th, only a couple of days after Putin’s proposal, Trump extended wide-ranging sanctions on Russia. Meanwhile, US Russia watchers are telling this author that Putin’s offer is nothing more than a troll to counter the Trump-Zelensky mineral deal.
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How LNG Exports Will Define U.S. Energy Policy Under Trump 2.0
President Donald Trump’s guarantee to supply liquefied natural gas to Europe furthers his broader push for U.S. “energy dominance,” marking a stark reversal of the Biden Administration’s pause on the approval of new LNG export infrastructure permits. While Trump’s approach to energy policy correctly identifies LNG as a growth driver and an essential geopolitical lever, expanding LNG exports risks impacting domestic energy prices and should be balanced with other reliable sources of energy like nuclear power to maximize its benefits and ensure long-term energy security.
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Trump’s Tariffs On Canada Put US Energy Security At Risk
In a far-reaching move set to take effect on March 4th, President Donald J. Trump imposed a 25% tariff on all foreign imports from Canada, a close ally and the US’ largest energy trading partner, as well as on Mexico.
Additionally, a 25% tariff was announced on imported steel and aluminum. Canada is the largest supplier to the U.S. for both. Aluminum and steel are vital for many products, including energy infrastructure components. Canada, understandably, is not pleased. Ottawa signaled that "everything is on the table" in response, potentially including cutting off energy supplies. Given Canada’s central role in U.S. energy security, imposing further tariffs could lead to volatility in American energy markets, price increases, and a broader reshaping of geopolitical alliances.
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Digital Transformation Can Enable The U.S. To Fight The Shadow Economy
On his inauguration day, President Donald J. Trump signed an Executive Order entitled “Designating cartels and other organizations as foreign terrorist organizations and specially designated global terrorists.” This illustrates the new administration’s emphasis on the global fight against organized crime, with a primary focus on Latin America.
In addition to historically known avenues of illicit revenue generation, such as drug and human smuggling, organized crime groups are now penetrating formal economic sectors, including the fuel industry, and engaging in illicit fuel trafficking. While the Executive Order calls for the elimination of groups such as Tren de Aragua (TdA) and La Mara Salvatrucha (MS-13), this is made far more difficult with no measures to remove their presence from lucrative sectors, such as fuel smuggling. While limited progress has been made in Latin America, an effective approach may lie in successful technological measures employed overseas.
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Texas Grid Needs Connectivity And Weatherproofing
The Texas power grid, 90 percent of which is managed by the Electric Reliability Council of Texas (ERCOT), is unique in the United States. Unlike other states, Texas operates an independent power grid with very minimal connection to the two national grids: the Eastern Interconnection and the Western Interconnection. This independence is deeply rooted in the state’s preference for minimal federal oversight, yet it has repeatedly exposed vulnerabilities that have had dire consequences for millions of Texans.
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The Year That Was: 2024 Energy Stocks - Winners And Losers
As the global energy landscape evolves, investors must assess the stability of traditional fossil fuels against the growth potential of renewable energy and advanced nuclear technologies. Some experts highlight a rising global backlash against renewables, as increasing evidence in Europe and elsewhere raises questions about long-term profitability and sustainability without government largesse. Others argue that addressing climate change is non-negotiable, making renewables a safe investment. This article also reflects the expected revival of the nuclear industry.
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Hidden Costs, Rusting Relics: Decommissioning Wind Turbines In The US
The U.S. Wind Turbine Database contains more than 74,695 wind turbines built since 1980, spread between 1,699 wind power projects in 45 states. However, thousands of wind turbines are reaching the end of their operational lifespan and need to be either repowered to make way for updated (often larger) turbines or entirely decommissioned to allow for new uses of the land they occupy. Unfortunately, there is no uniform legal framework to regulate the steps involved, nor is there an accepted industry-wide set of best practices, and the environmental costs are considerable.
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2025’s Energy Megatrends: Seeking Energy Security And Reviving Nuclear
In the run-up to President-Elect Donald Trump’s January 20, 2025, inauguration, energy markets have already begun to adjust to the new administration’s new economic policies. The incoming team’s support for the oil, gas, and nuclear industries reflects a re-evaluation of renewables stemming partly from a global shift towards energy security and reliability to hedge against the effects of the U.S.-China competition. This comes at a time when companies and states alike are seeking to secure more and cheaper energy than ever in anticipation of drastic increases in consumption for AI processing and/or higher levels of economic activity.
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A New Start: Central Asia's Nuclear Potential & Peril
The International Tax and Investment Center's Energy, Growth, and Security Program organized a panel on March 12th, 2024, discussing the rise of Central Asia's civilian nuclear industry and how to best incorporate it as a part of the energy mix across the region.
We Can No Longer Afford to Let China Do Our Rare Earth Mining
On Dec. 3, China banned exporting critical minerals such as gallium, germanium, and antimony to the United States. This came in the wake of the Biden administration's announcement of new restrictions on the sale of chips and specialized chip-making machinery and software to China the day before. This exchange is merely the latest round in the ongoing battle for the raw materials that control the future of energy and tech. China and the U.S. are in a wrestling match over mineral dominance that is more critical than the 20th-century struggle for the control of oil.
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The Blockchain Revolution In The Energy Market
Blockchain is moving beyond cryptocurrencies. By 2026, the market for blockchain in the energy sector is set to exceed $1.5 billion—a massive leap from just $127.5 million in 2018. Energy companies see immense potential in this technology, including how it can transform everything from grid management to green energy trading.
Blockchain is a digital technology that records transactions between parties and securely stores that information across a decentralized system. Multiple participants verify and record the information so it cannot be altered or tampered with. Although blockchain is best known as the key system behind cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin, it can be used for any secure transaction, and its applications in the energy sector are rapidly expanding.
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Winter Is Coming, But Russia Refuses To Stop The Energy War On Ukraine
A massive attack by Russia against the Ukrainian energy infrastructure on Sunday, November 17th may have caused the Biden Administration to green-light Ukraine’s use of the U.S. ATACMS long-range missiles. Ukraine took parts of the Kursk region during its 2024 summer offensive and is struggling to hold on in the region as some 50,000 Russian forces, bolstered by North Korean troops, fight to regain control. Biden’s OK, long awaited by Kyiv, was followed by green lights from the French and British for use of their SCALP/Storm Shadow missiles, with a range of 250 km. Yet, most military experts and analysts doubt that the addition of these long-range systems into the battle for Kursk will bring a decisive turn in the ongoing war, let alone a Ukrainian victory.
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U.S. COPing Out Of Global Climate Leadership?
Clean energy shares in the United States experienced a significant decline following Donald Trump’s election to a second term. The WilderHill Clean Energy Index fell by 6.7%, with solar companies like Sunnova Energy International Inc. and Sunrun Inc. dropping as much as 51% and 29%, respectively. The timing of this downturn is unfortunate, as green stocks plummeted while the flagship United Nations Conference on Climate Change, COP29, convened in Baku on November 11. Although it is currently unclear which Biden-era environmental initiatives Trump intends to eliminate and how those included in the Inflation Reduction Act will be affected, green technology firms are bracing for impact.
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Google’s Search For AI-Enabling Secure Energy Goes Nuclear
As Google’s AI energy needs skyrocket, the company recently inked a deal with Kairos Power, a nuclear power company started in 2016, to meet Google’s growing energy needs. The deal between the two companies includes plans to bring a small modular reactor online by 2030 and produce up to 500MW by 2035, according to a Google blog statement, the approximate annual consumption of 360,000 average American households. This deal comes as other tech giants such as Microsoft, Amazon, and Oracle make similar moves, investing heavily in nuclear startups or bringing back old reactors online as they seek to power their data centers.
Joe Biden’s Iran Oil Sanctions Failure
As Iran is spending billions of dollars funding Hezbollah in Lebanon, the Houthi militias in Yemen, Hamas and Islamic Jihad in Gaza, and Katai’b Hezbollah in Iraq, the recently released Energy Information Administration (EIA) report on Iranian petroleum exports stands out as a sobering reminder that the Obama-Biden on-and-off sanctions on Tehran have failed. In fact, as the sanctions against the Kremlin over its invasion of Ukraine suggest, sanctions alone are no panacea against aggressor states. U.S. trade policy frequently fails to stop flagrant sanctions violations.
China Bets On Leadership In The Green Tech Frontier
At the 2024 BRICS summit, China claimed that its advances in Green Tech serve as a “valuable reference” for the bloc and the globe. While Beijing talks a good game about its investments in renewables as an engine of domestic and global economic growth, the realities of China’s sluggish economy suggest otherwise.
Earlier this month, China observed Golden Week, a period with several cultural and political holidays in early October, including the 75th anniversary of the Chinese Communist Party's rise to power. Usually, such an occasion would be celebrated with much fanfare, but this time things were muted. As Golden Week approached, the Chinese economy struggled despite early stimulus measures announced by the CCP. These included outstanding mortgage rate cuts, recapitalizing banks, new measures to encourage mergers and acquisitions, and other economic stimulus provisions.
The Summit Of The Future’s Vision: Will It Help The Energy-Poor Now?
Following the latest United Nations General Assembly, the UN Summit of the Future adopted the “Pact for the Future,” a document filled with ambitious pledges to tackle climate change, peace and security, and global inequalities. Secretary General of the UN Guterres proclaimed the pact a “’once in a generation’ opportunity to renew multilateral cooperation”.
The pact revolves around accelerating the transition to renewable energy and achieving net-zero emissions by mid-century. However, this ambitious vision for the future risks losing sight of the present and does not do enough for the 760 million people worldwide – 80 percent of whom are located in Sub-Saharan Africa, who do not have access to even basic electricity. The immediate energy needs of developing countries are being sidelined in favor of long-term ideals and platitudes.
Vance And Walz On America's Energy Future
Amid the destruction of Hurricane Helene, which caused catastrophic flooding and power outages across five states, the two vice presidential candidates, Senator JD Vance (R-OH) and Governor Tim Walz (D-MN), debated the future of U.S. clean energy policies at the first (and only) vice presidential debate of the 2024 campaign in New York.
While the debate primarily focused on Hurricane Helene’s fiscal and humanitarian impact with climate change as a central topic, it quickly veered towards U.S. clean energy production, spotlighting the country’s readiness to compete globally, particularly against China’s manufacturing capabilities.
