How Oil Reveals The Cracks In Russia’s War Economy
Russia’s war machine is showing unmistakable signs of strain. After nearly four years of fiscal overreach caused by injecting trillions of rubles into the Russian economy, the Kremlin can no longer disguise its distress. American envoys met in Geneva on Sunday, November 23rd with Ukrainian officials to discuss a permanent ceasefire, however, this is no time to go easy on Moscow, as U.S. sanctions seem to be working.
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Investment Booms In Eurasia After Abraham Accords Expand
When Kazakhstan’s president Kassym Jomart Tokayev announced, during a meeting with President Trump in the Oval Office, that Kazakhstan would join the Abraham Accords, markets rejoiced, and the decision was lauded in boardrooms and policy chanceries from Washington to Beijing and from New York to Shanghai. Kazakhstan's joining transformed the process initiated by President Donald J. Trump in his first term from Arab-Israeli diplomatic normalization to a historic rapprochement between Islam and Judaism. If a Christian country such as Armenia or Cyprus joins, it will become truly Abrahamic.
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Energy Deficit Can Cloud The Future Of Russia’s Megacity
The U.S.-China competition for AI dominance is on, and one key arena where China has so far outrun the competition is the emergence of “cloud cities” or “smart cities” – mega-cities that integrate AI-run capabilities and robotics to run things more efficiently, and help to mitigate negative impacts on the environment, improving the quality of life for citizens. The negative aspect of this trend from the citizen’s eye view may involve concerns about privacy and monitoring, which has required advanced thinking and preparation in countries where individual freedom ranks high on the value scale, such as the U.S. and the EU.
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Rosatom Has Scored Major Nuclear Projects — Can It Deliver?
While Russia’s economic performance has been lackluster as its war economy struggles to underpin growth, a clear bright spot remains: nuclear energy. Following the Shanghai Cooperation Organization Summit, where the Power of Siberia 2 pipeline progress dominated headlines, Rosatom signed a memorandum with China National Nuclear Corporation (CNNC) on personnel collaboration, building on recent wins in Central Asia, Europe, and North Africa. Rosatom has customers lined up worldwide, but as financing problems and global competition build, the jury is out on whether they can expand on their recent success. As the United States seeks to modernize its moribund nuclear power capabilities, Russia’s Rosatom stands as both a competitor and a model.
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Russia’s Dramatic Pivot: Gas Pipeline Signals Subordination To China
The spectacular displays at the 2025 Shanghai Cooperation Organization summit in Tianjin were carefully crafted to showcase the evolution of Xi Jinping’s Beijing-centric political bloc which aspires to rival Washington. The U.S. administration is embracing an “America First” agenda and using tariffs as a foreign policy battering ram. Meanwhile, President Trump may be on to something in writing “Please give my warmest regards to Vladimir Putin and Kim Jong Un as you conspire against the United States of America.”
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Russia Challenges U.S. Interests in the South Caucasus
The U.S.-Russian confrontation is escalating. President Trump has threatened 100 percent secondary tariffs on countries buying Russian oil and other exports, promising to impose them within 50 days unless Russia and Ukraine reach a ceasefire. The Senate, led by Sens. Lindsay Graham (R-SC) and Richard Blumenthal (D-CT), is proposing a 500 percent tariff package targeting nations that purchase Russian energy resources, including oil, gas, and uranium.
Russia, meanwhile, is opening a new front in the strategic South Caucasus. Ukrainian military intelligence (HUR) recently published a military order directing reinforcements to the Russian base in Armenia, a move HUR spokesperson Andrei Yusov described as part of Moscow’s strategy to “destabilize the global security situation.”
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Dr. Ariel Cohen on i24: Trump's Middle East Visit and Ukraine Talks in Istanbul
This edition of the Global Take features Dr. Ariel Cohen's appearance on i24 News, where he analyzes developments in the talks between Russia and Ukraine in Istanbul as President Trump visits the Middle East.
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Will Kazakhstan’s Uranium Fuel An AI Boom In Central Asia?
Governments are seeking to leverage AI investment to accelerate societal and economic development and bootstrap to the next level of economic development. While some observers express concerns that the growth of AI could widen the gap between the developed world and emerging markets, it also provides an opportunity for energy-rich developing countries to technologically leapfrog. Few regions are better equipped to exploit this uranium and AI boom than the world’s largest exporter of uranium: Kazakhstan.
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The Ukraine Mineral Deal Might Help The U.S. Break China’s Monopoly
The United States and Ukraine signed a long-awaited deal on April 30 to give the U.S. priority access to Ukrainian critical minerals and other natural resources. After months of acrimonious disputes and negotiations over a ceasefire/peace between Russia and Ukraine, U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent is now touting the agreement as a signal to Russia that “the Trump Administration is committed to a peace process centered on a free, sovereign, and prosperous Ukraine,” NBC reported. If that is the case, the signed agreement may be a step in the right direction. But consistent American military and diplomatic aid, in coordination with European allies, will be necessary to clinch a sustainable solution to the 11-year-old war.
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Why The EU And U.S. May Not Rescue Russia’s Energy Industry
President Donald J. Trump’s efforts to attain peace between Russia and Ukraine have already prompted questions about the future of Russian energy exports, the country’s main cash cow, and whether the door will open to joint projects between Russia and the E.U or the U.S. Whatever progress is made in any negotiations, will be difficult if not impossible to go back to pre-2022 arrangements. Doing so isn’t necessarily in the E.U.’s or America’s strategic or economic interests.
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Water Challenges in Central Asia
Ariel Cohen discusses the water security challenges faced by the Central Asian states and potential solutions to these issues at a panel event with The Clingendael Institute.
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Putin’s Trolling: A Strategic Minerals Offer For Trump
Just as President Volodymyr Zelensky was preparing to arrive in Washington D.C. on Friday, February 28th to sign an unprecedented US-Ukraine agreement on strategic minerals, Vladimir Putin came up with a proposal of his own, involving joint development with the U.S. of rare earth metals, aluminum, and hydro power in Russia. It’s trolling of 99th level.
At face value, this could be seen as a step towards renormalizing U.S.-Russia trade relations. President Trump is entertaining the notion of economic rapprochement but isn’t ready to commit yet. Economic cooperation comes after the cease-fire or peace accord in Ukraine, not before. On February 27th, only a couple of days after Putin’s proposal, Trump extended wide-ranging sanctions on Russia. Meanwhile, US Russia watchers are telling this author that Putin’s offer is nothing more than a troll to counter the Trump-Zelensky mineral deal.
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Report: Water Insecurity in Central Asia: The Imperative for Regional and International Cooperation
Water security is an urgent issue that demands immediate attention from Central Asian governments, businesses, civil society, and their international partners. Climate change, population growth, infrastructure problems, a lack of government foresight, and the unequal distribution of precious water resources between the upstream countries (Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan) and the downstream nations (Kazakhstan, Turkmenistan, and Uzbekistan) have created a ”perfect storm” of pressing water insecurity.
The 2021 Central Asia drought, the loss of the Aral Sea, the evaporation of glaciers in the Tian Shan mountains, and the alarming shrinking of the Caspian Sea are reminders of how natural and man-made disasters have destructive consequences on Central Asia’s strained water resources.
This report addresses the status of water security across the five Central Asian countries, outlining recent developments, ongoing
challenges, and opportunities for improvement. Geopolitically, interstate tensions and the role of international politics—e.g., influence from the West, Russia, and China and tensions with Afghanistan—all will continue to affect the region’s water security. This report will address international cooperation in projects for water sharing, including the current and future role of agencies like the International Fund for Saving the Aral Sea and partners like the United States Agency for International Development, the
World Bank, and extraregional governments. The report concludes with a holistic set of policy recommendations to help improve water security in Central Asia.
Read the full report here: Central Asia needs regional and international cooperation to bolster water security - Atlantic Council
Russian Nuclear Energy Researchers In Europe Endanger Western Security
As international tensions grow, scientific developments become more crucial than ever to creating war-winning technologies. There is a reason the Manhattan Project was kept under strict security measures – and even then, there were leaks.
Beginning in the 1940s, Stalin’s USSR used intelligence to steal America’s atomic secrets and develop nuclear weapons. Throughout the Cold War, the Soviets ran a massive spying operation to gain access to submarine, computer, and space tech. In preparation for its 2022 invasion of Ukraine and as the conflict continued, Russia ramped up its intelligence gathering and influence activities around the world. Recently, concerns have once again been raised that Moscow has had an unobstructed path to obtaining information about cutting-edge nuclear technology from the European Organization for Nuclear Research (CERN).
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Russia and Iran’s Defense Pact is a Challenge Trump Must Confront
Russia and Iran signed a mutual defense and security cooperation pact on Jan. 17 — just days before President Trump’s inauguration. Both nations are primary opponents of the U.S., demonstrated by Russia’s war against Ukraine and Iran’s attempts to assassinate Trump, its regular proclamations of “Death to America, death to Israel!” and its backing of terrorist proxies Hamas, Palestinian Islamic Jihad, the Houthis and Hezbollah.
This new pact represents the next move in a long game to shift the global balance of power away from the U.S. and its allies. Although the new administration is coming into office with many pressing agenda items, the Moscow-Tehran partnership needs quick attention before it leads to threats, bloodshed and more war.
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A New Start: Central Asia's Nuclear Potential & Peril
The International Tax and Investment Center's Energy, Growth, and Security Program organized a panel on March 12th, 2024, discussing the rise of Central Asia's civilian nuclear industry and how to best incorporate it as a part of the energy mix across the region.
The West’s role in solving Central Asia’s water crisis
The Caspian Sea, vital to Eurasia’s economy and environment, is shrinking at an alarming rate. The declining water level in the sea is one visible consequence of a larger regional water crisis faced by the C5 nations of Central Asia—Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, and Uzbekistan. This water crisis threatens the more than 82 million people who call the largely arid region home.
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New Sanctions Against Gazprombank: Too Little, Too Late
The U.S. Treasury has announced sanctions against Russia’s Gazprombank, a lending institution inexorably linked with Russia’s state-owned gas giant Gazprom, along with fifty other small and medium-sized banks and forty securities registrars. Treasury’s Office of Foreign Assets Control (OFAC) also issued a warning of sanctions risks for financial institutions joining Russia’s System for Transfer of Financial Messages, which Moscow stood up in an attempt to work around having been excluded from the Society for Worldwide Interbank Financial Communication (SWIFT), the main global network to wire funds.
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Winter Is Coming, But Russia Refuses To Stop The Energy War On Ukraine
A massive attack by Russia against the Ukrainian energy infrastructure on Sunday, November 17th may have caused the Biden Administration to green-light Ukraine’s use of the U.S. ATACMS long-range missiles. Ukraine took parts of the Kursk region during its 2024 summer offensive and is struggling to hold on in the region as some 50,000 Russian forces, bolstered by North Korean troops, fight to regain control. Biden’s OK, long awaited by Kyiv, was followed by green lights from the French and British for use of their SCALP/Storm Shadow missiles, with a range of 250 km. Yet, most military experts and analysts doubt that the addition of these long-range systems into the battle for Kursk will bring a decisive turn in the ongoing war, let alone a Ukrainian victory.
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Russia’s Landmark BRICS Summit and the Specter of De-Dollarization
Last week saw a landmark summit of the BRICS group of nations, a nine-country economic bloc led by Moscow and Beijing, which drew representatives from 36 countries, including 22 heads of state.
Held from Oct. 22 to Oct. 24 in the Russian city of Kazan, the event focused largely on “de-dollarization”—the idea of phasing out the U.S. dollar as a reserve currency and preferred medium of global exchange.
Energy Revenue Fuels A War-Time Moscow Boom
Hundreds of billions of dollars flowing into Russia from oil and gas sales are fueling Moscow’s war effort in Ukraine, and more. Unbeknownst to some diplomats and other decision-makers, energy export revenues drive the massive geo-economic polarization between East and West, as petro and gas dollars pour into the Russian tech sector.
Russia’s capital—and especially the hi-tech/IT sectors—are the prime beneficiaries of the East-West confrontation. This has significant long-term secondary and tertiary consequences. According to the Russian news agency TASS, in 2023, public and private annual investment inflows into the capital city reached $73.5 billion and a growing. $1.7 billion in high-tech exports were projected for 2023. These geo-economic effects are still working to change the geopolitical landscape and the global balance of power of the 21st century, something many Western policymakers may not be aware of.
China And Russia Now Dominate The Global Nuclear Trade
The global competition between the West and the rest takes many forms, including in the energy area. The nuclear energy industry has long been such a battlefield. Unfortunately, the U.S. and Europe are not doing great when it comes to winning bids in the developing world.
In late May 2024, Uzbekistan signed an agreement with Russia for the sanctioned Russian State Atomic Energy Corporation (Rosatom) to build a nuclear power plant in Uzbekistan. It will be the first nuclear power plant in Central Asia, providing emission-free electricity to an energy-hungry nation. It will also give Moscow renewed leverage in a region that used the war in Ukraine as an opportunity to slip out of Moscow’s orbit. This Russian success is not fully consolidated; neighboring Kazakhstan has rebuffed Russian advances, at least for now. Astana is considering four options: from China, Russia, South Korea and France, and the issue will be voted upon in the national referendum to be held this Autumn
The Global Take | Russia | Change of Defense Minister: Sergei Shoigu Moved to Russia's Security Council
Dr. Ariel Cohen provides his commentary on BBC concerning a sudden change in Russia's defense minister and Sergei Shoigu's move to Russia's Security Council. In this interview, Dr. Cohen discusses the implications of these changes and what they could mean for the war in Ukraine.
American Deterrence Is Failing In The South China Sea
One of Beijing's enduring hobbies is accusing Washington of violating or abusing international law. This selective outrage is justifiably ignored, given China’s unwillingness to abide by international law and disregard for U.N. arbitration concerning demarcation in the South China Sea. “International law with Chinese characteristics” was easily mocked and ignored when American deterrence and international safeguards stymied Beijing’s ambitions. Unfortunately, that security architecture is unraveling.
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Despite Wars And Sanctions, Superyacht Market Continues Recent Growth
A superyacht is a status symbol and the ultimate pleasure boat. What ordinary people envisage doing on cruise ships, the super-rich do on their mega-yachts. Space and change of scenery have appealed to humans from time immemorial. However, with luxury yacht ownership requiring vast sums of disposable income, one would think that factors putting the global economy under pressure, such as inflation, Houthi terrorists and Somali pirates attacking ships in the Red Sea, sanctions following the Russian invasion of Ukraine, and before that, the COVID-19 pandemic, would slow down the demand for superyachts. Instead, despite severe disruptions, mainly because of the post-Ukraine 2022 Russian invasion sanctions, with billions sloshing around in the global economy, demand for these vessels has reached a high point, driven by changes in the tastes of the ultra-rich, innovative new uses for superyachts, and the number of buyers able to splurge on such craft.
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