21st Century Security

Revitalizing U.S. Energy Policy for the 21st Century

May 17, 2024

Achieving a green future is a worthy and necessary aspirational goal. However, realizing aspirations requires sound strategy and a willingness to learn and reformulate policies and plans in the future.

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China's New Naval Tech: Environmental Dream and Security Nightmare

May 15, 2024

The world's largest electric container ship, constructed by China’s COSCO Shipping Corporation, completed its first-ever voyage on April 22. This ship alone will save thousands of tons of carbon emissions in just a few trips, a feat that the climate-conscious worldwide should applaud. Carbon emissions from international shipping, vital for global trade, are upward-trending, contributing to global climate change, and must be addressed if we want a green future. However, a breakthrough may quickly transform into Washington's worst nightmare should the US find itself unable to compete and continue to fall behind in its shipbuilding capacity.

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The Global Take| Israel-Hamas | U.S. Reveals It Paused Shipment of Ammunition for Israel

May 13, 2024

Dr. Ariel Cohen is interviewed on BBC World News for his insight on the United States pausing shipments of ammunition to Israel. In his analysis, Dr. Cohen discusses the implications this act has for the Israel-Hamas conflict as well as the United States' credibility.

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New Quills Needed for Taiwan's 'Porcupine' Strategy Against China | Opinion

May 7, 2024

By Ariel Cohen and Wesley Hill

Avril Hines, director of national intelligence, disclosed Thursday in Congressional testimony that Russia and China are training together for a future invasion of Taiwan. The "unlimited friendship" proclaimed by presidents Xi Jinping and Vladimir Putin in Beijing in February 2022, just before the Russian invasion of Ukraine, moved closer to a potential two-front deadly conflict between the West and the Moscow-Beijing Axis.

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The Global Take|Israel-Hamas Ceasefire Talks-Bloomberg Daybreak Asia Edition|May 10, 2024

May 6, 2024

Tune into Bloomberg Daybreak Asia Edition for an insightful analysis from Dr. Ariel Cohen on the latest developments in the ongoing conflict between Israel and Hamas. Dr. Cohen provides detailed commentary on the strategic movements, international implications, and the broader geopolitical context surrounding this intense conflict.

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Elon Musk’s Hail Mary In China

May 1, 2024

Tesla was once the undisputed global leader in electric vehicles. In the earlier part of this decade, Tesla’s  Tesla0.0% stock was a certain winner, reaching an all-time high on November 4, 2021. Those days are now distant as the company grapples with mounting competition from international and Chinese rivals, with companies such as BYD dominating the market and the phone maker Xiaomi entering the fray. Chinese-owned Polestar, Volvo, as well as Hyundai, Volkswagen, and others, are presenting tangible challenges to Tesla’s position globally. It is unclear whether Elon Musk’s efforts to reverse this trend appear to be successful.

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An 'East Asian NATO' Is Forming

May 1, 2024

Washington hosted one of the most significant shifts in the world’s security architecture since the collapse of the Soviet Union. On April 11, an unprecedented trilateral summit brought together U.S. allies Japan and the Philippines, potentially setting the stage for a spectacular shift in Asia’s Sino-American balance of power.

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LNG Is Harm Reduction For Energy

April 30, 2024

Harm reduction is a helpful policy concept from the narcotics field that can be applied to energy and climate change. It recognizes that drug abuse occurs and seeks to minimize the negative consequences that drug use can bring, ideally improving (or saving) both the life of the user and of society. For example, making naloxone available to first responders helps save lives that would otherwise be lost to drug overdoses, saving families from the loss of a loved one and communities from otherwise being ravaged by multiple drug-related deaths. Across our lives, in medicine and government, sliding scales of harm are acknowledged and inform policy.

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New U.S. Solar Panel Tariff Intensifies Sino-American Green Tech War

April 23, 2024

The Sino-American trade war may be old news, but now a new battlefield is front and center: green tech. During her controversial visit to China, Secretary Janet Yellen made waves by criticizing China’s excess industrial capacity. Secretary Yellen warned the Chinese that retaliatory tariffs would be levied if this wasn’t addressed while simultaneously making the case to the rest of the world that Chinese production threatened nascent industries worldwide. These quarrels have been a hallmark of Sino-American relations for decades. What is novel is that the focus of these complaints isn’t cheap consumer goods but the cutting-edge technologies of the 21st century.

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The Global Take|Iran-Israel Exchange Attacks with Dr. Kamran Bokhari

April 19, 2024

The video provides a comprehensive overview of the recent spate of attacks between Israel and Iran, shedding light on the escalating tensions between the two nations. It examines the incidents and offers insight into the longstanding conflict and its implications for the region.

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Israel, Iran, And The Global Energy Tightrope

April 16, 2024

The long-simmering conflict between Iran and Israel erupted this weekend when Tehran launched a massive air strike against the Jewish state. Over 300 drones, cruise, and ballistic missiles were aimed at Israeli airspace on Saturday night, April 13, and early hours of Sunday the 14th. This attack was not a surprise. President Biden warned days before the attack it would likely occur, and Iran itself stated as much after Israel allegedly bombed Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps command building in Damascus, killing senior IRGC generals. Iran ignored and violated the diplomatic immunity of the U.S. Embassy in Tehran and conducted a terror attack on the Israeli Embassy in Buenos Aires, Argentina.

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STEM Education Reform Needed To Compete With China

April 11, 2024

While the Biden administration’s ongoing quest to forgive student loans has repeatedly captured headlines, a far more significant initiative, Advance Educational Equity, infused in the language of racial and economic equity, fails to address a significant American weakness: the development of Science, Technology, Engineering, and Mathematics, the fields that form the drive our modern world. These fields are the bedrock of innovation, technological advancement, and national security.

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Putin's Information War Is Absurd—and Effective | Opinion

April 10, 2024

A terror attack on a Moscow suburban concert hall killed more than 130 civilians on March 22. The Islamic State Khorasan (ISIS-K) claimed responsibility that same day, followed by body camera footage to prove it. ISIS-K is a predominantly Afghanistan-based branch of ISIS, with a massive deployment on the Afghanistan-Tajikistan border, which has a long and bloody history with Russia. After wars against Muslims in Afghanistan and Chechnya, Russian, Iranian, and Syrian forces decimated ISIS in Syria, and ISIS has retaliated a number of times against Russia's soft targets.

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American Deterrence Is Failing In The South China Sea

April 2, 2024

One of Beijing's enduring hobbies is accusing Washington of violating or abusing international law. This selective outrage is justifiably ignored, given China’s unwillingness to abide by international law and disregard for U.N. arbitration concerning demarcation in the South China Sea. “International law with Chinese characteristics” was easily mocked and ignored when American deterrence and international safeguards stymied Beijing’s ambitions. Unfortunately, that security architecture is unraveling.

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Ukraine Needs An Economic Victory

March 21, 2024

For Ukraine, winning on the battlefield is not enough, as Kyiv must ensure that the country’s economy stays afloat. If exports continue to slump, Kyiv could lose its ability to finance the war effort and sustain its population even further. Thus, maintaining the flow of its agricultural exports is vital.

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To Defend Democracy, Time To Revamp America’s Military-Industrial Base

March 16, 2024

America’s defense industrial base is not ready for the dangerous global environment in which the U.S. and the West find themselves. For the White House, the Pentagon, and the U.S. Congress, continuing to neglect this situation is no longer an option. The Center for Strategic and International Studies recently conducted and reported on a series of U.S.-China wargames —in nearly all of them, U.S. forces ran out of some precision-guided munitions within a week.

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Biden’s Waffling On LNG Can Hurt Mexico – And The US Too

March 12, 2024

With over half a dozen Liquefied Natural Gas  GAS-0.7%export projects underway in Mexico, stakeholders are watching anxiously to see if US politics will force them to stop. In January, President Joe Biden issued an executive order pausing the approval of new LNG export permits for countries that do not have a Free Trade Agreement with the US. This decision sparked outrage among industry stakeholders and politicians, who viewed it as a political ploy to appease environmentalists and gain their support in the 2024 Presidential election.

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Are Drones Putting Global Peace In Danger?

February 29, 2024

Three recent wars highlighted the use of drones in 21st-century warfare. Houthi and Iranian attacks on Saudi oil infrastructure and military in Yemen brought the war between Iranian proxies and the UAE-Saudi coalition to a stalemate by 2015. Azerbaijan used drones massively against Armenia in 2020 and 2023, and a deluge of drone-focused combat footage flooded the internet after Russia’s February 2022 re-invasion of Ukraine. Ukrainian songs cheering on the Turkish Baykar company’s Bayraktar drone went viral as drones devastated Russian armor. The Kremlin is playing catch-up quite successfully. The Russian military used swarms of drones, many of them Iranian-made, in attacks against Ukrainian civilian infrastructure targets.

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The US Must Boost Homeland Resilience In The 21st Century

February 22, 2024

On February 15th, 2024, the White House confirmed that Russia is attempting to deploy a nuclear spaceborne anti-satellite weapon. While the White House was quick to qualify that there is no immediate nuclear threat to the homeland, little doubt remains that Russia’s pursuit of this weapon, banned under international treaties, is a dire threat. The deployment of spaceborne weapons capable of disrupting the nuclear triad by attacking America’s communications or even launching warheads would represent a watershed event in the developing conflict between the US and its allies, and Russia, China, and their fellow travelers, such as Iran and North Korea. Moscow’s move risks bringing an arms race into space. This demands every technological, military, diplomatic, and legal response America can muster to maintain strategic deterrence.

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Can Europe Count On US LNG?

February 20, 2024

The US House of Representatives appears to be so dysfunctional that Mike Turner, the Chairman of the House Intelligence Committee, had to go public to respond to a major national security threat from new Russian anti-satellite weaponry. Meanwhile, the other Mike, Speaker of the House Mike Johnson, is delaying a vote on crucial foreign aid to provide means for Israel, Taiwan, and Ukraine to defend themselves.

Energy, specifically the Biden Administration’s liquified natural gas (LNG) future infrastructure development pause/ban, is also on the Congressional agenda. The recent White House decision is one of the worst in a string of failed energy decisions, including the cancellation of the Keystone XL pipeline from Canada’s oil sands to the Gulf of Mexico.

Read the full article here.

Joe Biden’s LNG Policy Fiasco

February 8, 2024

Congressional hearings scheduled for February 6 and 8 expose the Biden administration’s massive energy policy blunder. This misstep will impede American energy production, undermine economic growth, endanger the hard-earned U.S. status as the world’s largest liquefied natural gas (LNG) exporter, and threaten Washington’s strategic credibility among friends and foes. The hearings are set to unite a strange assortment of political bedfellows, including liberal democrats determined to support Ukraine and conservative Republicans determined to expand LNG exports. In late January, Energy Secretary Jennifer Granholm announced a series of new measures aimed at the U.S. LNG sector. Projects already completed or near completion, including several large export terminals in Texas and Louisiana, will be put on hold indefinitely.

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The World Is Going Into The Red From The Red Sea Crisis

February 7, 2024

The Houthis, an Iranian-backed proxy terrorist group in Yemen, trained and equipped by the theocratic dictatorship in Tehran, have unleashed chaos on the global supply chain and sent shockwaves through international markets. Now that the US is attacking Iranian targets proxies in Syria and Iraq while the UK and US are bombing Houthis in the Red Sea targets. The cost to the global economy is ticking upwards.

Nearly 30 percent of global container shipping navigates through the Suez Canal via the Red Sea, with 15 percent of global trade passing through the Red Sea, mostly destined for Asia. This traffic includes not only strategic resources like oil and gas but also everyday goods and commodities that keep the global economic engine humming.

Read the full article here.

Xi And The Red Sea: Protect Iran Or China’s Economy?

February 2, 2024

A US bombing campaign against Iranian proxies, which hit more than 85 targets in response to a recent drone attack in Jordan that killed three Americans and injured dozens, threatens a regional conflagration. This crisis began after the Houthi attacks out of Yemen on commercial shipping in the Red Sea disrupted the supply chain, raised maritime insurance and transport costs, and threatened a global recession.

Amidst the deluge of international condemnation, one actor’s silence speaks volumes: China’s. Outwardly, China and President Xi Jinping are putting on an excellent poker face. However, this cannot hide China’s unenviable dilemma: its ambitions for global leadership require expanding influence in the Middle East, while simultaneously China’s economy and the legitimacy of the Chinese Communist Party are threatened by Iran’s truculence.

Read the full article here.

The U.S. Is Losing the Nuclear Energy Race to Russia and China

January 25, 2024

Even as Russia remains under unprecedented Western economic sanctions, the U.S. finds itself dependent on one Russian vital import: enriched uranium. The U.S. is the largest producer of nuclear energy in the world, but it has allowed its civilian nuclear infrastructure to languish since Jimmy Carter and Ronald Reagan’s presidencies in the 1970s and 1980s.

While the U.S. has coasted on its laurels, with nuclear energy production not changing much in over 30 years, Russia continues its gradual climb upward and exports many reactors, while China is investing heavily in civilian nuclear tech and boosting its atomic power generation at home. Beijing plans to build 24 new nuclear power plants by 2030, bringing the total up to 60, overtaking the U.S. with its old reactor fleet. For comparison, the U.S. has 93 operational nuclear power plants in total, and in the same period as China’s building spree, the U.S. added 2 with none under development now.

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U.S. And China Vie For Copper As Demand And Prices Soar

January 23, 2024

The world is running short of copper, and companies and countries are scrambling. This essential metal, a staple of civilization going back to the bronze age, is the lifeblood of existing energy infrastructure and cutting-edge technology. Unfortunately, it faces a projected supply shortfall by 2025 with projections showing a 20% price jump by May 2027. Annual demand will surge to 36.6 million metric tons by 2031, up from 25.3 million in 2021.

This vulnerability isn’t merely an economic inconvenience; it’s a geopolitical powder keg. The U.S. finds itself in an increasingly high-stakes scramble for global copper supplies against China. If this competition isn’t managed the same way the competition for crude oil is, competition for copper could further destabilize the already rocky international system.

Read the full article here.