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By Ariel Cohen
Last week, Congress launched the bipartisan Congressional Russia Caucus, which is chaired by Congressmen Tom Price (R-GA) and Dennis J. Kucinich (D-OH). The creation of the caucus could not be timelier, as the Obama Administration seems to have made unrequited concessions to Russia in missile defense, strategic arms talks, and the sale of Russian arms to Iran and Venezuela. Meanwhile, the U.S. said little regarding its violation of Ukrainian and Georgian sovereignty.
MOSCOW - Is the Obama Administration, busy pushing the “reset button” with Russia is about to suffer a geopolitical setback in Ukraine? When talking to the security experts here, it sure looks like it.
Ukraine is the key to making Russia an empire and, some here believe, a superpower once again.
MOSCOW - In meetings with Prime Minister Vladimir Putin, Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov and the leading Russian foreign policy experts one thing becomes blatantly clear: the Obama Administration did not receive any quid-pro-quo for significant concessions it provided to Russia as a part of its “reset button” policy.
By Ariel Cohen
The Obama administration has managed to open a wide gap between itself and some of America’s most reliable allies, those of Central Europe. In the recent Open Letter to the Obama Administration from Central and Eastern Europe, some of the most magnificent freedom fighters of the region, including former presidents Vaclav Havel of the Czech Republic and Lech Walesa of Poland, have warned that the U.S. should not take their countries and peoples for granted.
By Ariel Cohen
The Kremlin has launched an ambitious project to restore Moscow’s past glory on the African continent. Policy makers in the U.S. and Europeneed to understand that it’s happening -- and formulate an effective response -- before they find their own relationships with Africa changing in significant and problematic ways.
By Ariel Cohen
This year’s St Petersburg Economic Forum provided the backdrop for a deep division in the Russian leadership between those who, whether for pragmatic or ideological reasons, want integration with the West, and those who want to continue Russia’s trajectory as a petro-state. Unfortunately, the latter seem to be winning.
By Ariel Cohen
Cold and rainy days at the St. Petersburg Economic Forum earlier this month followed each other like waves on the Baltic Sea. The economic forecasts pushed by Russian leaders, foreign dignitaries and gurus were just as bleak.
Russians believe this is a “W”-shaped recession, and, as President Dmitry Medvedev said, “It is too early to uncork the Champagne.” Yet the forum also highlighted a deepening rift between the approaches and the rhetoric of the Russian leadership.
By Ariel Cohen
The economic glitterati have descended on Russia’s "second capital." President Dmitry Medvedev, vice premiers and ministers, CEOs of Intel, Nissan, Coca-Cola and other Forbes 500 companies, and oligarchs are rubbing shoulders with superstar pundits such as Thomas L. Friedman and Nuriel Rubini. All have flocked to the St. Petersburg International Economic Forum.
By Ariel Cohen
The economic and political megastars have descended on Russia’s "second capital" the 13th St Petersburg International Economic Forum. Here were Russian President Dmitry Medvedev; the presidents of Armenia and Azerbaijan locked in their eternal peace process; Russian vice premiers Igor Shuvalov and Igor Sechin (aka "the two Igor Ivanoviches"); and even the enigmatic former PM Victor Zubkov, who chaired a special grain congress.
By Ariel Cohen
The 1990s were a boom decade for Western energy companies tapping into Caspian oil and gas. Three important oil pipelines were built — the Caspian Pipeline Consortium (CPC), Baku-Supsa to the Black Sea, and the Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan (BTC) to the Mediterranean — as well as the Baku-Tbilisi-Erzurum (BTE) pipeline transporting gas to Turkey.
By Ariel Cohen
The world’s leading experts who gathered at Columbia University’s Harriman Institute for the conference, "The Architecture of Energy Export System of the Caucasus and Central Asia," believe that future uncertainties jeopardize western control of much of Eurasian energy.
By Ariel Cohen
At this week’s G-20 summit in London, President Obama met with Russian President Dmitry Medvedev for the first time. The two men share the burden of improving much-frayed relations between their two nations.
By Ariel Cohen
President Obama and Russian President Dmitry Medvedev will meet Wednesday on the sidelines at the Group of 20 summit. Ironically, that’s one day after the trial of former Russian oilman Mikhail Khodorkovsky opens in Moscow. This trial symbolizes the deterioration of the rule of law in Russia.
While the two leaders - both former law professors - will have their hands full with economic and security matters, the rule of law also should figure prominently on their bilateral agenda. A healthy legal system is necessary to protect the rights of foreign and domestic investors and to facilitate the development of civil society and human rights.
Russia’s track record under communism was abysmal, and even before that it was problematic. Under Mr. Medvedev, who is attempting to turn the fight against corruption into a personal crusade, there may be changes for the better.
During the Boris Yeltsin presidency, the Russian courts, despite their corrupt practices and lack of judicial sophistication, slowly inched toward more independence. In 2002-03, however, a reversal began. The rulers increasingly use “telephone justice” - senior state officials call upon judges and tell them how to decide cases under the guise of protecting “paramount state interests.”
The “siloviki” - bosses of security services - increasingly have been involved in hostile takeovers, including of intellectual property such as lucrative trademarks like Stoli vodka. Most of all, they have been going after oil, metals and minerals.
The 2003-05 Yukos case was a watershed. The most successful and transparent Russian oil company was taken over under the pretext of multibillion-ruble tax arrears. Yet many government officials clearly stated that its owner, Mr. Khodorkovsky, was perceived as a political threat because of his support of liberal political parties and civil society.
The persecution of Yukos undermined the notion of justice being universal because it selectively targeted a politically inconvenient opponent. Loyal Russian oligarchs - though involved in unsavory business practices - were not prosecuted. The oligarchs and politicians quickly got the message that, in the words of the Borg in “Star Trek,” “Resistance is futile.”
After the Yukos affair, Russian and Western oil companies came under tremendous pressure from the Russian government, which used the state bureaucracy to renegotiate earlier contracts or to boot competitors out of the country. The victims included Exxon, Shell, British Petroleum, Hermitage Capital and the Russian companies Rusneft and Mechel.
Mr. Khodorkovsky was sentenced in 2005 and was eligible for parole last year. Instead, on Tuesday, he and his partner Platon Lebedev will face a new trial - and a new rap sheet. The trial is widely believed to be a political vendetta.
This may be a chance for Mr. Medvedev, who spoke with concern aboutRussia’s “legal nihilism,” to act. As the kangaroo court gets under way, some Russian experts hope Mr. Medvedev may order an impartial trial or pardon Mr. Khodorkovsky. If, however, the West fails to save Mr. Khodorkovsky and Mr. Lebedev from life sentences, it would also surrender the chance for a more law-abiding state to the “siloviki” power brokers.
At the summit, Mr. Obama also should bring up the October 2006 murder of crusading journalist Anna Politkovskaya, whose likely killers were acquitted by a Moscow jury in February. The prosecutors never even presented the court the names of those suspected of ordering her murder or the suspected gunman.
The police also haven’t made arrests in the murder of human rights lawyer Stanislav Markelov, who was gunned down a stone’s throw from the Kremlin along with journalist Anastasia Baburova in February. The murders of others, including the defenestration of Kommersant Daily’s military correspondent Ivan Safronov, the poisoning of Novaya Gazeta’s deputy editor Yuri Shchekochikhin and the fatal 2004 shooting of Paul Klebnikov, an American of Russian descent who was editor in chief of Russian Forbes, all remain unresolved.
Without fundamental legal reform, a fight against corruption and a return to judicial independence, Russia will continue to linger at the bottom of the Transparency International Corruption Index and the Heritage Foundation’s Index of Economic Freedom. If Russia doesn’t return to internationally recognized legal practices, investments are likely to slow, and capital will continue to flee.
The administration should appeal to Mr. Medvedev to stop what he himself has called law enforcement’s “nightmarish practices,” start reforming the legal system, ban the secret police and law enforcement bosses from engaging in expropriations and extortion, and fight corruption.
Mr. Obama also should ask that Mr. Medvedev order renewed investigations of the Politkovskaya and Markelov cases and ask for the release of Mr. Khodorkovsky. These measures would be a strong signal to the United States, to the Western business community and to the Russian people that a clean break with the lawless past is under way and that Russia may be joining the community of civilized nations.
By Ariel Cohen, Ph.D.
The Russian and Eurasian Policy Project was inaugurated to assist policymakers in the legislative and executive branches who will formulateU.S. policies toward Russia and Eurasia. The project’s task force is composed of leading experts on Russia and Eurasia who have extensive policy experience in Russian and Eurasian affairs and national security in both Republican and Democratic Administrations.
By Ariel Cohen
On April 1, President Barack Obama will meet for the first time with Russian President Dmitry Medvedev at the G-20 summit in London. The two world leaders are expected to discuss a broad range of issues on the global and U.S.-Russian bilateral agenda, including U.S. plans forAfghanistan, Iran, and missile defense in Europe.
Testimony By Ariel Cohen
Testimony before Senate Foreign Relations Committee
Hearing on "Prospects for Engagement with Russia"
Delivered Thursday, March 19, 2009
"Barack Obama and Joe Biden will address the challenge posed by an increasingly autocratic and bellicose Russia by pursuing a new, comprehensive strategy that advances American national interests without compromising our enduring principles."
By Ariel Cohen
Barack Obama and Joe Biden will address the challenge posed by an increasingly autocratic and bellicose Russia by pursuing a new, comprehensive strategy that advances American national interests without compromising our enduring principles.
By Ariel Cohen
Vice President Joe Biden suggested at the Munich international security conference on Feb. 7 that America push "the reset button" on relations with Russia. But the Obama administration shouldn’t allow Moscow to pocket gains it has recently made in Eurasia. A "carrots-and-flowers" approach to the Kremlin won’t work.
By Ariel Cohen
As the dust over the August 2008 Russian-Georgian war settles, the extent of Russia’s geopolitical gain in South Caucasus and the Black Sea is becoming clearer.
Besides the naval base in the Abkhazian port of Ochamchire, of which we wrote recently, Moscow intends to restore the former Soviet air base Bombora in the Gudauta district of Abkhazia.
By Ariel Cohen
Russia plans to establish a Black Sea naval base at the Abkhaz port of Ochamchire.
Ochamchire is some 60 kilometers southeast of the Abkhaz capital ofSukhumi, near the cease-fire line with Georgia. If permanently stationed there, Russian ships essentially would control the Georgian territorial waters all the way to the Turkish border.
By Ariel Cohen
Moscow continues to pursue a Sukhoi-based fifth-generation fighter. After five years of effort, Russia finally found an international partner for the development project. In 2007 India entered an agreement to jointly develop a fifth-generation fighter based on the Sukhoi.
By Ariel Cohen
Moscow continues to pursue a Sukhoi-based fifth-generation fighter. After five years of effort, Russia finally found an international partner for the development project. In 2007 India entered an agreement to jointly develop a fifth-generation fighter based on the Sukhoi.
By Ariel Cohen & Owen Graham
On January 1, 2009, Russia’s state monopoly OAO Gazprom began reducing gas supplies to Ukraine. Moscow and Kiev had failed to negotiate the price for natural gas, and the initial reduction affected six additional countries: Czech Republic, Turkey, Poland, Hungary, Romania, and Bulgaria. As problematic as this was, the crisis has extended beyond these initial victims. Russia is losing its reputation as a reliable supplier of gas to Europe.
By Ariel Cohen
WASHINGTON, Jan. 7 (UPI) -- Russia held joint naval exercises withVenezuela late last year to demonstrate its growing strategic reach and political clout, particularly in Latin America, which many consider the traditional U.S. sphere of influence.
WASHINGTON, Dec. 19 (UPI) -- As UPI reported, at the end of November Russia successfully test-launched its new-generation land- and sea-based ballistic missile designed to penetrate U.S. missile defense systems such as the one planned for deployment in Poland and the Czech Republic. The new Russian missile can be equipped with up to 10 warheads, including decoys, to overwhelm or mislead American sensors.
