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Interstate relations are normally governed by self-interest and restraint but the ongoing war in Ukraine, when coupled with Russia’s escalatory bent, have rendered predictions about a return of political and energy stability precarious, if not impossible.
The Cipher Brief recently spoke with Ariel Cohen, director of the Energy Growth and Security Program at the International Tax and Investment Center, about the spillover of the war into a global energy crisis and what that means for 2023, when Cohen says we may experience “the toughest circumstance in Europe probably since World War II.”
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The nationalization of industry isn’t the only thing Boric promised. According to Boric’s plan, the new, state-owned company is more than simply the long arm of the government collecting profit from a natural resource. It bets on an emerging technology called the Direct Lithium Extraction process (DLE). While DLE performed well in controlled environments, it is still unclear whether commercial use will succeed.
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While Putin may no longer see the utility in showing unity with Russia’s business elite, going from “unshakable unity” in March 2022 to imploring “patriotism over profit” in March 2023, this does not mean they are unimportant. After being banned from traveling to most Western nations, these oligarchs lost 97 billion dollars and counting. Sanctions deeply hurt the Russian economy and even resulted in some non-energy oligarchs risking their lives publicly calling for peace.
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The West must understand the groundswell of anti-Russian sentiment that is sweeping Central Asia while understanding the structural constraints facing these governments. An Atlantic Council event “How can Kazakhstan and Central Asia power and feed the world?”, for a forthcoming report by Margarita Assenova, Ariel Cohen, and Wesley Alexander Hill elucidates many of these problems and solutions.
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Power production will remain CO2 positive no matter how many wind turbines or solar panels we install until fusion is cracked. Long-term storage methods are required to fill energy baseload gaps in renewable generation, creating solutions for key technological and economic challenges surrounding the renewable energy transition.
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On its one-year anniversary of invading Ukraine, Russian gas sales were halved compared to before the war. Russia hoped that Xi Jinping’s visit to Moscow would allow for some relief. Xi did deliver some flowery language, stating “Right now there are changes – the likes of which we haven't seen for 100 years – and we are the ones driving these changes together” when describing relations with Russia. Xi also emphasized the importance of energy in an earlier open letter, writing that “China is ready to work with Russia to forge closer partnership in energy cooperation.”
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The OPEC+ cartel of oil-producing nations led by Saudi Arabia and Russia and chaired by Alexander Novak, Russia’s Deputy Prime Minister and Minister of Energy, is going to remove nearly 1 percent of total global oil production from the market in an apparent effort to increase prices. Despite earlier signals that OPEC+ would make no further reductions to oil production this year, the recent announcement was framed as a “precautionary measure” to ensure stability in the energy market. With oil prices surging 6.3% on Monday, to $85 a barrel for Brent, the Federal Reserve and other central bankers across the globe trying to get inflation under control, have been thrown a curveball.
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The Green icon Greta Thunberg seems to be taking a pro-nuclear stance. The Swedish climate activist once decried nuclear energy as being “extremely dangerous, expensive, and time-consuming”. Her views seem to have changed in tandem with recent trends in public opinion as she recently argued that Germany shutting down its nuclear plants was a ‘mistake’. Greta, alongside other climate activists, emphasized that the alternative to nuclear would be coal, a most polluting energy source.
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The shift of technologies from the cutting edge to the mundane defines technological revolutions. We are amid such a revolution. As Electric Vehicle (EV) technology matures, electric cars are becoming cheaper and their customer base in advanced post-industrial economies is. continuously expanding. That expansion is also happening internationally, with the Global South joining the race for cheap EVs. This market growth is not just the fulfillment of the technological potential of EVs, but a great environmental gain as well.
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Earlier this month, Iran and Saudi Arabia agreed to restore diplomatic ties after seven years and signed a China-brokered agreement in what is being termed a breakthrough deal for the region. How does this impact and alter America’s geopolitical stature in the region? What are the first and second-tier consequences of weakening the U.S. presence and position in the Gulf in favor of Washington’s main geopolitical rival?
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On March 19th, 2023, Kazakhstan held competitive elections for its lower house – the Mazhilis – to decide the political direction of the young democracy established after the collapse of the Soviet Union. Despite some reported problems, the parliamentary elections were the freest in the country’s history and a vital step forward for Kazakhstan’s democratization and political pluralism.
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The possibility of such an attack is growing as EMP technology is evolving. The Commission to Assess the Threat to the United States from EMP Attacks, alongside military officials, warned years ago of the possibility of balloon-based EMP attacks. Given that our grid infrastructure is weak, aging, and lacks resilience, EMP attacks could become the choice weapons of America’s enemies, and not just China.
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A Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) allows a country to impose a price on carbon emitted during the production of goods in the country of origin as import fees, thus incentivizing greener manufacturing. This has been a perennial aspiration of environmentalists for decades that once languished in obscurity but is now rapidly becoming policy. Now, this step forward in climate policy may be legislated with bipartisan support in the US Congress, with far-reaching implications not just for the environment but the international economy.
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Concerns over food security and dependency on Russian foodstuffs force African states to remain distant from the conflict. Now in addition to this food dependency, Russia has begun augmenting its diplomatic playbook in Africa with changes in its energy diplomacy and military power projection.
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Over the last year, the West imposed sanctions on Moscow, cut back its purchases of Russian hydrocarbons, and sent military support to Ukraine. But the world’s largest democracy, and one of the United States' biggest allies in Asia, India, hasn’t done any of that. Rather, India has seized the opportunity to purchase cheap Russian energy to bolster its ailing economy. Surprisingly, US Secretary of the Treasury Janet Yellen has pointed out that “India is welcome to purchase as much oil as it wants”, as it gets Russia oil at a large discount, up to 30 percent and more.
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Ukrainian intelligence has reported that Russian energy giant Gazprom is establishing its own private military company (PMC). The rationale for an energy company establishing a security force is at least vaguely plausible given the need to defend fixed assets in trouble spots. Western energy companies like Exxon and BP do the same. However, Gazprom is not establishing a private army to guard a few remote wells or pipelines, or even to be sent to Ukraine. Gazprom’s move is likely about control over valuable energy resources inside of Russia, but more generally, a scramble for power.
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Many people take the security of our national grid for granted. They should not.
Since the days of the Soviet threat during the Cold War, the US grid was in the scope of foreign militaries. In addition to China and Russia, Iran and North Korea drew contingency plans to destroy our sources of electricity. Yet, it is not only foreign governments that target our electric lifelines.
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Clean hydrogen has long been a promising but unrealized green energy source. A bipartisan infrastructure bill introduced last year suggests allocating 7 billion dollars to create clean hydrogen hubs.
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Elon Musk was acquitted by a US district court over a tweet that forced him to resign as Tesla’s executive chairman in 2018. Now, fresh off his victory in acquiring the very same Twitter for an inflated price, Elon Musk and Tesla were slammed by a historically low 2022 earnings report which prompted a 70% decline in stock in 2022. This earned Elon Musk the dubious distinction of having the largest net worth decline in history — $200 billion — and prompted critical evaluation of his abilities to simultaneously run Tesla and Twitter. In January 2023, Tesla’s stock subsequently climbed 38% in a single month. Tesla’s stock roller coaster has prompted premature panic concerning the long-term viability of the Electric Vehicle (EV) industry and misplaced attacks on EV technology.
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Historically, nations to Europe’s East and South (and the Middle East) supplied the necessary energy to the West. Over the last two decades, the European dependence on imported natural gas went up by almost 20%, from 65.7% to 83.6%. Before the war in Ukraine started, Germany imported 60% of its gas from Russia.
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Kevin McCarthy's quest to become Speaker of the House ended after 15 votes with many concessions granted to the hardline, America first, Freedom Caucus within the GOP House delegation that prevented his unchallenged ascent. The extent of these concessions took weeks to emerge and drew controversy. Notably, Marjorie “Jewish space lasers” Taylor Greene received seats on the powerful Homeland Security and Oversight committees.
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After 2022-2023’s unusually warm winter, Europe may be winning its energy struggle with Russia, but a lasting solution for energy-hungry Europe has not arrived yet. While Europe’s ad-hoc responses to Russian embargos have succeeded in changing one of the cornerstones of its economy, they are neither systematic nor sustainable.
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If left to market forces, commodities and industries tend to be more efficient and grow faster. This Economics 101 maxim now enjoys solid bipartisan support rejuvenating the supply chain, manufacturing, and utilization of solar panels in renewable power plants to fuel the energy transition of the 21st century.
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The invasion in Ukraine was supposed to be long over by now – by Kremlin’s count. After the first three days, Russia’s “short victorious war” would end with a Quisling government in and a parade through Kyiv which would have cemented Russian President Vladimir Putin’s legacy and the Russian empire redux of Eastern Orthodox Slavs: Russia, Ukraine, and Belarus, or as the czarist lingo went, “the Great, Little and White Russia”.
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