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03-18-2002
The US government is putting the best face possible on Uzbek President Islam Karimov’s visit to Washington. Officials from the State Department, National Security Council and the Pentagon stress that Karimov promised to improve Uzbekistan’s human rights record, adding that they believe Karimov is sincere in his desire to promote civil society in the Central Asian nation.
Karimov ended his US visit on March 14 with several stops in New York, including a brief visit to the downtown site where the World Trade Center buildings once stood. The same day in Washington, officials gave Karimov’s performance high marks. The Uzbek leader has faced widespread criticism in recent years for a crackdown on basic rights in Uzbekistan. But Bush Administration officials insisted that Karimov recognized domestic rights conditions in Uzbekistan needed to improve. The Uzbek leader also admitted that his government had to relinquish total control over the economy.
"He is not stupid," one US official said. "He delivered a surprisingly intelligent speech to the business community; and his remarks to President Bush were quite sincere - unless he deserves an Oscar for acting."
Some advocates have worried that by stepping up aid to Uzbekistan after joining the war on terrorism, the United States would reward Karimov’s repressive rule. One official, speaking on background, disputed that notion. "He understands that he has a problem with human rights, and he openly said so. He owes the United States his security, if not his survival," the official said. "I don’t think he will string us on and lead us by the nose."
Karimov certainly seemed humbled, according to note-takers, at his meetings with President George W. Bush and Secretary of State Colin Powell. The Uzbek leader repeatedly voiced appreciation for the Americans’ respectful and low-key tone, say government officials with knowledge of the meetings. Karimov gave a clear-cut promise to "improve behavior" in the future.
"If only anyone explained these things to me this way before," Karimov reportedly lamented, "we would be along the way to implement these reforms... These issues are our responsibility. We will follow through on what we signed. I understand that Uzbekistan needs it, not the United States."
US officials said both Bush and Powell stressed to Karimov that without significant improvements on human rights and economic liberalization, the US Congress will not be receptive to further allocations of economic and security assistance.
US officials suggest that Karimov has already moved to fulfill his pledge to improve the country’s democratic climate. Prior to arriving in Washington, the Uzbek government registered a human rights organization, and released over 800 political prisoners from prison. Human rights organizations have praised Karimov’s recent moves, but say they alone do not comprise a liberalization trend.
Karimov’s actions follow a big increase in American aid. In the current supplemental 2002 US assistance budget, Uzbekistan is about to receive over $155 million - $83.5 million above the aid allocated prior to the September 11 attacks. The US Export-Import Bank also inked a fresh $55 million credit facility for small and midsize Uzbek businesses during Karimov’s visit. About one-half the aid total will consist of security assistance, including communications gear for the Uzbek military and programs aimed specifically at improving border patrols. The remaining half of aid would be devoted to a wide variety of socio-economic areas, including programs to combat the spread of HIV/AIDS, the environmental rehabilitation of the Aral Sea basin and improvements in social services in the Ferghana Valley, Central Asia’s agricultural heartland and center of radical Islamic sentiment.
In Washington, Karimov also reached out to the international financial institutions, such as the World Bank and the International Monetary Fund (IMF), after repeatedly snubbing these organizations’ advice for years. The IMF closed its offices in Uzbekistan in 2001, citing frustration over the Karimov government’s reluctance to carry out essential reforms, including the convertibility of the local currency, the som.
The Bush Administration officials who deal with Uzbekistan on a daily basis told EurasiaNet that they understand that they must pursue human rights and political liberties in the name of security. Without security, there will be no investment; but without investment, there will be no economic development. However, they also stressed that in the middle of the war on terrorism, security takes the front seat.
Karimov remains concerned about national security and in Washington held meetings with top defense department officials. Indeed, the centerpiece of his visit was the signing of a Declaration of Strategic Cooperation. The Pentagon has taken a lead in cooperating, training and supplying the Uzbek military. Despite the rumored death of Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan leader Juma Namangani during the anti-terrorism campaign in Afghanistan, Karimov is anxious to keep building the Uzbek military’s capacity.
Even if the IMU cannot reconstitute, Hizb-ut-Tahrir, a radical Islamist party, which advocates the overthrow of Karimov’s regime, could help foment anti-government unrest. The Strategic Cooperation pact includes a promise by Americans to "regard with grave concern any external threat" to the Uzbek government. Hizb-ut-Tahrir already causes grave concern both for the Karimov regime and for the US government, American diplomats stressed.
Because of these concerns, some in the US human rights community recognize that in order to pursue specific liberalization measures, or to get notorious cases of persecution reversed, it may be worthwhile to work through the Pentagon. "The US military has a unique channel of communication with the Karimov regime," says one congressional staff member who is deeply involved in promoting democracy in Uzbekistan.
However, the Pentagon is primarily focused on future geopolitical engagement in Uzbekistan, irrespective of the human rights climate. In their meeting, Karimov and Secretary of Defense Donald Rumsfeld discussed the future of American bases in Central Asia. The US government’s official position is that it does not seek permanent bases in Central Asia. At the same time, officials say they want access to former Soviet facilities for an indefinite period - at least as long as the war on terrorism is continuing. Such a formula is vague enough to keep everyone in the region nervous, but it avoids a direct clash with Russia over regional spheres of influence. In October 2001 Russia requested - and conducted - consultations with the United States over the future of Central Asia. The second round of consultations will take place in Moscow in April.
According to sources present at Karimov’s talks with Bush, Powell and Rumsfeld, the Uzbek ruler’s main worry - and warning - was about Iranian meddling in Afghanistan. Karimov apparently believes that Tehran will try to undermine stability there by exploiting centuries-old ethnic rivalries, in order to undermine the United States and its allies. If that scenario were to materialize, the United States would need to act as a more solicitous friend to players throughout the region, including Karimov himself. As one American diplomat said, "if you thought politics make strange bedfellows, try war - it makes stranger ones."
02-19-2002
Reports that al Qaeda fighters, possibly including Osama bin Laden himself, have found refuge in Georgia are stoking pressure for outside military intervention. Top Russian officials are once again hinting that Moscow may feel compelled to intervene militarily to contain Islamic radicals in Georgia. Georgian President Eduard Shevardnadze is categorically opposed to Russian intervention in the Pankisi Gorge, but he has indicated that he would consider a Georgian-US joint operation.
The top US diplomat in Georgia, Philip Remler, helped focus attention to the brewing crisis in the Pankisi with an announcement that al Qaeda fighters had infiltrated the region. Georgian leaders have not disputed Remler’s assertion.
In recent days, Russian officials have fueled concerns with speculation that bin Laden may be among those on the loose in the Pankisi Gorge - a claim that Georgian officials deny.
Since mid-January Georgian security have attempted to crack down on criminality in the Pankisi area. But the February 17 kidnapping of four Georgian police officers on duty in the region underscores the weakness of the state’s authority.
Russian Defense Minister Sergei Ivanov warned that Georgia’s chaotic conditions warranted the launch of an immediate anti-terror offensive. If Georgia is incapable of conducting such operations, Ivanov hinted the Russian military could take matters into its own hands.
"On the one hand, it is, of course, sovereign Georgia’s business," Ivanov told the Interfax news agency. "On the other, [should we really] sit and wait and see how tensions mount there and how this region is turning into a mini Chechnya, or mini Afghanistan?"
The prospect of Russian intervention clearly does not appeal to Georgian officials. Shevardnadze on February 18 described the idea of a Russian operation in the Pankisi area as "unacceptable."
At the same time, Shevardnadze announced that Tbilisi was considering a joint security operation with the United States. "As for the possibility of a future joint action with the U[nited] S[tates] special forces in the Pankisi Gorge, we haven’t yet had systematic discussions on that," Shevardnadze confessed. "But, if it becomes necessary, we have been and remain ready for dialogue."
In his announcement about the presence of Islamic radicals in Georgia, Remler indicated that Washington was willing to enhance security cooperation with Georgia. The timing of his comments, some analysts believe, may have been designed to forestall a Russian military move in Georgia.
Most regional analysts and policy makers have known that the Pankisi Gorge has served as a haven for Chechen separatists and other Islamic radicals since the first Chechen war (1994-1996). The Chechen fighters and terrorists connected with Afghanistan are allied with the radical Chechen field commanders Shamil Basaev, Ruslan Gelaev and Khattab.
The Kremlin has complained for years that the Shevardnadze government has covered up the Pankisi situation. According to a March 2001 report by the popular Georgian TV channel Rustavi-2, Pankisi has become a supply base to which the Georgian Ministry of State Security has transported Turkish aid to the Chechen separatists. According to the Georgian Minister of State Security Valery Khaburdania, the radical pan-Turkist Grey Wolves were the conduit of assistance to the Chechens.
In the past, Moscow’s complaints about the flow of aid to Chechens via the Pankisi did not draw any reaction from Washington. Senior officials in the US Department of State now say they are facing a dilemma on Pankisi. On the one hand, securing independence and territorial integrity of Georgia is at the top of the US agenda for the Caucasus. On the other hand, improving relations with Russia, especially concerning the conduct of anti-terrorism operations, has become a strategic priority.
According to the Georgian official, Azeri security officials tipped off Georgian authorities about the terrorist penetration. Georgian security officials announced February 9 that two foreigners with apparent ties to Khattab had been arrested.
On July Fourth, President Donald Trump signed the “One Big, Beautiful Bill” into law, introducing significant changes that will dramatically reshape America’s energy landscape. The newly minted OBBB Act leaves businesses and policymakers trying to determine its potential impact on jobs, investment, and the nation’s position in the global energy race.
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Telling the BBC that he is “disappointed but not done with Vladimir Putin,” President Donald Trump has threatened 100% tariffs against Russia, including secondary tariffs against countries that help dodge sanctions on the Kremlin’s energy exports., The U.S. Senate is considering a bill to give the president the ability to impose additional “sledgehammer” measures with up to 500 percent secondary sanctions. Under pressure, Moscow is expanding its hydrocarbon exports by boosting LNG shipments to the Asian markets from Siberia’s Yamal Peninsula. On June 26th, the Russian tanker Iris docked at Arctic LNG 2 terminal, a joint venture between Russia’s Novatek, Chinese CNPC and CNOOC, and Mitsui and JOGMEC, marking the first departure from the sanctioned facility since October 2024.
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As countries around the world seek stable, abundant, and reliable baseload power, nuclear energy is becoming an increasingly appealing choice. While large and expensive conventional nuclear reactors (1GW per unit and larger) are not for every market. Small Modular Reactors, downscaled versions of conventional nuclear reactors capping out at 300 MW with lower startup and transmission costs and micro-reactors (up to 20 MW), provide utilities, companies, and governments that previously could not commit to large-scale nuclear projects the option to include nuclear in their energy strategies.
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For the Trump administration, critical minerals are a global policy priority. President Donald J. Trump is trying to get China to relax bans on rare earth minerals desperately needed for American industries, including defense and tech. From Greenland to Ukraine, the U.S. is signaling interest and engagement, be it intent to acquire or a comprehensive energy and minerals agreement. In Africa, the U.S. brokered a peace agreement between the Democratic Republic of the Congo and Rwanda, amid conflict over critical minerals on the border of the two countries. This presents opportunities for American investment, driven by a global security strategy by from a president who has notably scaled back from U.S. engagement abroad.
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The Trump Administration’s energy policies are shifting the investment priorities in American renewable energy, and not to its benefit. But the jury is still out whether the green transition can be stopped or reversed.
In the first quarter of 2025, approximately $8 billion in clean energy investments and 16 large-scale projects were cancelled – the highest drop on record and the first decline since the Biden Administration enacted the barely effective Inflation Reduction Act which strongly favored the renewables. Among the companies that changed their plans were T1 Energy, formerly known as Freyr Battery, Kore Power, and many other solar, battery, and EV manufacturers. Projections still indicate that the U.S. will continue to increase its added renewable generation capacity in 2025, with Texas leading the way, profiting regardless of subsidies.
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The Trump Administration used the Defense Production Act as the basis for an executive order issued March 20, 2025 to sharply increase U.S. critical minerals production. Government agencies were given their marching orders, including directives to:
This executive order came on the heels of the creation of the National Energy Dominance Council, chaired by Secretary of the Interior Doug Bergum, in mid-February. The Trump team appears to be in a big hurry. The pressure is on. There are good reasons for this, and the key driver may be China.
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Today, disparate Trump policies —more muscular American diplomacy, less soft power, higher tariffs, and the quest for cheap energy — are being tested together in Venezuela. The pro-Russia, pro-China, and pro-Iran far left Maduro regime in Caracas has long been a thorn in the side of the United States in the often-neglected Latin American theater.
The first Trump Administration focused heavily on applying pressure to the country to minimize its benefits from oil exports in the U.S. American economy. Now, early in President Trump’s second term, he is reviving efforts to weaken the Chavista dictatorship by imposing secondary tariffs of 25% on all imports from countries that buy Venezuelan oil, starting on April 2nd. Additionally, on March 29th, the U.S. informed foreign partners of Venezuela’s state-owned oil company, Petroleos de Venezuela (PVDSA), that it plans to revoke authorizations issued by the Biden Administration for them to export Venezuelan oil and byproducts, putting further pressure on Venezuela’s ability to export.
While such measures will have certainly gotten Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro’s attention, targeting that country’s most profitable industry may be insufficient to implement the president’s agenda.
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The Trump Administration is skeptical about green energy, to put it mildly. The remarks of U.S. Energy Secretary Chris Wright at CERAWeek 2025, the most influential energy conference in the U.S., summarized one of the key reasons, "Beyond the obvious scale and cost problems, there is simply no physical way that wind, solar, and batteries could replace the myriad uses of natural gas." While this statement highlights one of the limits to scaling renewables, there are still several reasons for U.S. industry to make a concerted effort to remain at the forefront of battery storage. Although currently unable to support a wholesale energy transition, battery storage can help reduce electricity costs, compete with rivals technologically, and ensure that Chinese interests are excluded when batteries are powering critical infrastructure and industries.
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Over three years after Russia invaded Ukraine, some European countries were still reliant on Russian gas. While the war in Ukraine compelled most of the European Union to diversify its energy imports and avoid buying gas from Moscow, certain countries, whether motivated by domestic politics or geography, such as Slovakia, Austria, and Hungary, continued buying. In January 2025, Ukraine stopped allowing the transit of Russian gas to the EU via the Urengoy–Pomary–Uzhgorod pipeline (also known as the Brotherhood pipeline) after its contract expired. This has pushed Europe to continue decoupling from Gazprom.
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The U.S. Supreme Court heard oral arguments earlier this month regarding the legality of the Nuclear Regulatory Commission’s intent to license a high-level nuclear waste storage site in West Texas. This is a case with potentially seismic consequences. The suit, initiated by the state of Texas and Fasken Oil, a local company, alleges that the NRC is overstepping its authority by licensing the new facility. The storage of nuclear waste has been a controversial topic in the United States for decades. This court case may decide the future of America’s civilian nuclear program and its green ambitions.
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The Trump Administration is escalating military operations against the Houthi pirates and terrorists and focusing on the future of the Iranian nuclear program. If hostilities in the Middle East are affecting oil production and transportation, especially in the Persian Gulf, and specifically in the Strait of Hormuz, oil prices may be affected.
Simultaneously, the White House is eager to show the world that its energy strategy represents a bold, dramatic shift. Energy Secretary Chris Wright delivered keynote remarks on the opening day of S&P Global’s annual CERAWeek conference, dismissing Biden’s “myopic” focus on climate change and underscoring the Trump team’s commitment to reindustrialization over deindustrialization.
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The 29th annual UN Climate Change Conference begins on November 11th in Baku, Azerbaijan. Many environmentalists are pessimistic about the conference, with the choice of Azerbaijan as the host country, China’s negotiation strategies, and the American election results.
A major Russian military buildup on the border with Ukraine has recently sparked fears of a potentially dramatic escalation in the simmering seven-year conflict between the two countries. Although tensions have eased somewhat following Moscow’s April 22 announcement of troop withdrawals, the threat of a new Russian offensive remains.
