Each new crisis in Iran revives fears of a repeat of 1979, when Iranian oil production collapsed by 80 percent, removing 7 percent of supply from the global market and triggering a historic energy shock. Today, with Iran’s Supreme Leader, the Iranian Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC), including its bloody volunteer Basij militia, killing the citizens en masse, and with President Donald Trump weighing his options, events in and around Iran are prompting similar anxieties. But the conditions that turned Iran’s 1979 upheaval into a global oil shock no longer exist. Leadership change in Iran — as very recently advocated by Trump — would create short-term market disruption, but these risks are manageable.
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The rise of AI, the shift from renewables to fossil fuels and nuclear, and other changes in Trump Administration policies indicate that 2026 will continue to reshape U.S. energy. The growing focus on energy as a national security instrument is driving a chain reaction, shifting priorities across sectors, easing restrictions, and prioritizing the expansion of conventional energy infrastructure. In 2026, nuclear energy and reactor development, as well as grid build out, will be at the forefront, generating winners and losers in capital markets.
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With acting President of Venezuela Delcy Rodrigues coming to Washington on Tuesday, January 13th, all eyes are on whether the Chavista regime can negotiate its way out of the crisis caused by the rendition of its leader, Nicolás Maduro, by the U.S. military on January 3rd.
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The Russia-Ukraine war has been brutal to the Russian energy sector. New problems are emerging, and old issues are accumulating as Russia enters 2026. Losing Syria in December of 2024 and Venezuela in January 2026 exposes Russia’s global ambition as an emperor with no clothes. Ukraine’s bloody slog comes at a huge cost.
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Exporting energy has long been recognized as a money-making machine for Moscow. It has not only filled the Kremlin’s war chest but also generated immense personal wealth for Russian leaders and affiliated oligarchs. But in 2025, the picture of Russian energy became much more complicated. The Russian energy sector now functions not only as a strategic asset but also as a source of vulnerability exposed by war, sanctions, and asymmetric attacks.
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As 2025 draws to a close, the Trump White House, Department of Energy, Department of Interior, the EPA, and numerous other federal agencies involved in regulating energy and the environment have shifted away from the Biden Administration’s emphasis on “green transitions” and expensive renewables, and towards an approach that prioritizes conventional energy sources and energy security. The climate change assumptions of the Obama-Biden era that guided U.S. energy policy since 2008 are no longer influential. Today, energy security is paramount, and economic efficiency takes precedence over other concerns, with federal efforts to decarbonize and move toward a clean energy economy being replaced by initiatives that expand oil and gas production and accelerate the development of traditional energy sources — hydrocarbons and nuclear.
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On December 8, 2025, Turkish troops entered northern Syria from Afrin, Ras al-Ain, and the northern Aleppo countryside a year after their chosen candidate, the Islamist militia Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), ended the Syrian civil war, ousting Ba’athist dictator Bashar al-Assad and installing HTS founder and leader Ahmad al-Sharaa as Syria’s interim president. Until recently, HTS was recognized as a terrorist organization by the United States, the U.N. Security Council, Canada, Turkey, and other countries. While current reporting frames the convoy’s entry primarily in terms of Turkey’s ongoing security posture in northern Syria, this is an insufficient understanding of Ankara’s escalation. A clearer picture emerges if one analyses Turkey’s Islamist policies, neo-Ottoman imperial aspirations, as well as energy security strategy.
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A year after former Syrian President Bashar al-Assad’s Ba’athist dictatorship collapsed under the blows of Ahmed El-Sharaa’s Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (Organization for the Liberation of the Levant) Islamist militia, the Kremlin, the patron of the deposed regime has not disappeared. Despite expectations, Russia has not withdrawn from Syria, but instead has retrenched itself “under new management.”
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Prince Mohammed bin Salman recently wrapped up a successful visit to the White House, boosting the 80-year-old strategic relationship between Saudi Arabia and the U.S. The desert kingdom’s quest for technological progress was front and center. Yet, making Saudi Arabia a global leader in AI remains challenging.
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Russia’s war machine is showing unmistakable signs of strain. After nearly four years of fiscal overreach caused by injecting trillions of rubles into the Russian economy, the Kremlin can no longer disguise its distress. American envoys met in Geneva on Sunday, November 23rd with Ukrainian officials to discuss a permanent ceasefire, however, this is no time to go easy on Moscow, as U.S. sanctions seem to be working.
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The U.S.-China competition for AI dominance is on, and one key arena where China has so far outrun the competition is the emergence of “cloud cities” or “smart cities” – mega-cities that integrate AI-run capabilities and robotics to run things more efficiently, and help to mitigate negative impacts on the environment, improving the quality of life for citizens. The negative aspect of this trend from the citizen’s eye view may involve concerns about privacy and monitoring, which has required advanced thinking and preparation in countries where individual freedom ranks high on the value scale, such as the U.S. and the EU.
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The British Anglo American and Canadian Teck Resources mining companies announced an agreement on one of the most significant mining mergers in recent history that will create a new giant with a combined market value exceeding $53 billion. The all-share deal is expected to close within 18 months, pending regulatory approval, and will establish Anglo Teck as one of the top five global copper producers. This marks a tectonic shift in global mineral supplies with major geopolitical implications.
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Faltering energy security and unstable rare earths supply chains have prompted Europe to think creatively about securing its energy and strategic mineral supply. Brussels has decided to aim for the stars, literally, by putting its sights on the moon. In a European Commission report published on September 9th, the EU noted that to meet its energy needs, there may be a growing emphasis on advanced mining technologies, including space mining, which could start with the Moon.
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While Russia’s economic performance has been lackluster as its war economy struggles to underpin growth, a clear bright spot remains: nuclear energy. Following the Shanghai Cooperation Organization Summit, where the Power of Siberia 2 pipeline progress dominated headlines, Rosatom signed a memorandum with China National Nuclear Corporation (CNNC) on personnel collaboration, building on recent wins in Central Asia, Europe, and North Africa. Rosatom has customers lined up worldwide, but as financing problems and global competition build, the jury is out on whether they can expand on their recent success. As the United States seeks to modernize its moribund nuclear power capabilities, Russia’s Rosatom stands as both a competitor and a model.
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President Trump has repeatedly criticized solar and wind, most recently in at the U.N. General Assembly, calling them “a joke” and the “scam of the century.” Congressional Republicans passed the One Big, Beautiful Bill, which put the brakes on federal clean energy subsidies by terminating investment and production tax credits for wind and solar projects not in service by the end of 2027, with a “beginning of construction” deadline of July 4, 2026.
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The spectacular displays at the 2025 Shanghai Cooperation Organization summit in Tianjin were carefully crafted to showcase the evolution of Xi Jinping’s Beijing-centric political bloc which aspires to rival Washington. The U.S. administration is embracing an “America First” agenda and using tariffs as a foreign policy battering ram. Meanwhile, President Trump may be on to something in writing “Please give my warmest regards to Vladimir Putin and Kim Jong Un as you conspire against the United States of America.”
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A report on the Consumer Price Index published in early August of this year found that the cost of electricity in the United States is rising at more than double the rate of general inflation. American households have seen their electricity bills rise 30% since 2021. This is contributing heavily to rising cost-of-living concerns across the country. At the center of these price hikes is the AI revolution, and the sector’s projected expansion means the increased costs are unlikely to level off any time soon.
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Turkey sits at the intersection of Europe, Russia, the Caucasus, and the Middle East—a prime geopolitical piece of real estate in the Eastern hemisphere. As Europe and the U.S. seek to reduce reliance on Russian energy corridors as well as Iranian oil and gas, Ankara is moving quickly to position itself as the key transit hub linking Asia and Europe. Lacking significant reserves of its own, Turkey is leveraging its geographical position, including Russia/the Black Sea, the Caucasus, Iraq, post-war Syria, and access to Europe. President Recep Tayyip Erdogan is balancing alliances to expand his country’s regional influence.
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The Texas power grid, long isolated from the rest of the country’s interconnections to avoid federal oversight, has its share of long and near-term problems, such as a projected 8.3% shortfall by 2027 as demand increases, and limited weatherproofing.
Though the Texas legislature and the Electric Reliability Council of Texas, the independent state grid operator, have taken important steps to more consistently inspect plants and transmission stations as well as plan for increased demand, challenges remain. For instance, severe storms this past May led to widespread outages. Resolving these issues is not easy. The path forward is slow and expensive, with no easy solutions or shortcuts in the offing. This web of problems is why Texas-based Fermi America’s announcement of its HyperGrid project this past June led to an outburst of optimism.
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Qatar has warned that it may stop exporting liquefied natural gas to the European Union in response to the Brussels corporate sustainability due diligence directive, which entered into force on July 25th, 2025. The CSDDD requires large companies to remedy environmental harm and human rights concerns (such as forced labor) in their supply chains or incur fines. The rules apply to both EU and non-EU companies with a yearly turnover greater than €450 million. Notably, the rules will not take full effect until 2027 and will be implemented gradually through 2029 based on company size.
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There is broad scientific consensus: man-made climate change is real, dangerous, and accelerating. Addressing it demands urgency and pragmatism. The viable resources available—natural gas, nuclear power, and renewables—must be deployed strategically. Triage, not idealism, must guide the response.
In his Financial Times article, Stanford Professor Bård Harstad contends that natural gas, although cleaner than coal, risks confining the world to extended hydrocarbon dependence. However, by dismissing gas as just a short-term solution, Harstad misses the fundamental principle of triage: stabilizing the patient before recommending long-term treatment.
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This past Sunday, President Donald J. Trump and European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen announced preliminary terms of a trade deal between the U.S. and the EU from the Trump Turnberry golf resort in Scotland. A key component of the agreement is a pledge from the European Union to purchase $750 billion worth of energy exports from the U.S. over the next three years. The deal also involves commitments by the EU for European companies to invest $600 billion in a number of U.S. industries. In return, the EU received only a maximum 15% tariff on most of its exports rather than the 30% many had feared. However, announcement of the “big ticket” items averted what many had feared would devolve into a trade war as Trump’s declared August 1 deadline for 30% tariffs to kick in loomed.
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The Trump Administration’s energy policies are shifting the investment priorities in American renewable energy, and not to its benefit. But the jury is still out whether the green transition can be stopped or reversed.
In the first quarter of 2025, approximately $8 billion in clean energy investments and 16 large-scale projects were cancelled – the highest drop on record and the first decline since the Biden Administration enacted the barely effective Inflation Reduction Act which strongly favored the renewables. Among the companies that changed their plans were T1 Energy, formerly known as Freyr Battery, Kore Power, and many other solar, battery, and EV manufacturers. Projections still indicate that the U.S. will continue to increase its added renewable generation capacity in 2025, with Texas leading the way, profiting regardless of subsidies.
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U.S. President Donald Trump's Energy Dominance Council plans to host a liquified natural gas summit in Alaska on June 2, where it hopes to announce that Japan and South Korea have committed to the long-pursued Alaska LNG project to ease American gas shipments to Asia.
Since his return to the Oval Office, Trump has positioned hydrocarbons as the backbone of the U.S. energy portfolio and also as a lever for exerting America’s geopolitical influence on the global stage.
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The tariffs announced by the Trump Administration at the beginning of April have cast a shadow across international energy supply chains. The new policies were delayed for ninety days less than a week later, and the much-feared shortages and price hikes haven’t yet materialized. Nevertheless, the mood in the industry remains pessimistic.
In May, the U.S. Department of Commerce announced that companies based in Cambodia, Malaysia, Thailand, and Vietnam are dumping solar panel cells at low rates into the U.S. market while receiving subsidies from the Chinese government, setting the stage for the imposition of tariffs on all parties involved.