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There are many stories of Western oil-company adventures in Russia. Some of them end well, and some of them end badly.
By Ariel Cohen
The National Interest, June 11,2012
By Ariel Cohen and Anton Altman
Total, Europe’s third largest oil company, announced last Friday that they have made a major gas discovery in the Caspian Sea.
The discovery, made in the Absheron block off the coast of Azerbaijan, is thought to have large pockets of gas spread over a 270-square-kilometer field and holds about 350 billion cubic meters of natural gas and 45 million metric tons of gas condensate, according to SOCAR, the state oil company of Azerbaijan.
By Ariel Cohen and Anton Altman
Last week, oil giant ExxonMobil announced an agreement with Russia’s state oil company, Rosneft, to explore for oil in the Arctic continental shelf in the Kara Sea. America’s largest oil company is taking the place of BP (British Petroleum), whose dealings with Rosneft earlier this year collapsed.
Ariel Cohen and Anton Altman
The accelerated melting of the polar icecaps and recent Russian announcement that the Northern Sea Route (NSR) is now “ice-free” beg the question of whether or not the passage is already a commercially viable option. The Heritage Foundation examined Russia’s ambitious plans for the “last frontier” in the High North in great detail.
By Ariel Cohen & Anton Altman
A report released last week by the Baker Institute at Rice University, “Shale Gas and U.S. National Security,” focused on the foreign policy benefits of this domestically produced fuel. The authors undertook the study in light of the tremendous growth in discoveries of natural gas from shale in North America and the technological innovations that made it possible.
By Ariel Cohen
Tensions are rising in the eastern Mediterranean between Israel and Lebanon, this time over roughly 430 square miles of contested waters that contain considerable underwater gas reserves. Iran, Hezbollah and Syria are all interested in a war withIsrael, each for their own reasons. Tehran and Damascus want to save the embattled regime of Bashar Assad.
Ariel Cohen and Michaela Bendikova
The United States lacks effective energy policy responses in the event of a major oil crisis. This was the conclusion reached at a recent simulation by Securing America’s Future Energy. Little surprise here: We arrived at the same conclusion in three energy simulation exercises conducted at The Heritage Foundation in 2007,2008, and 2010.
By Ariel Cohen & Anton Altman
Tensions are rising between Israel and Lebanon, this time over underwater gas reserves. After months of debate, Israel’s cabinet approved last week a proposed maritime border that overlaps with a competing Lebanese claim, creating a sliver of some 430 square miles in dispute.
By Ariel Cohen
Last Friday, the United Arab Emirates acknowledged that [2] damage sustained by a Japanese supertanker on July 28, 2010, in the Persian Gulf, was the result of terrorism——not a “huge wave” as was announced earlier. The attack demonstrated the increasing danger of maritime terrorism against critical energy infrastructure. Prior to this , both UAE and Iran discounted the possibility of a terrorist attack.
By Ariel Cohen
During the past decade, the Arctic re-emerged as an area of vital U.S. interest. In addition to the oil and gas bonanza, two strategic maritime routes cross the region: the Northern Sea route along the northern coast of Eurasia and the Northwest Passage along the northern coast of Canada.
By Ariel Cohen
President Hugo Chavez recently announced that Venezuela will purchase dozens of Russian tanks and other arms, signaling growing military ties between the two countries -- and trouble ahead in the hemisphere.
The deal comes amid tensions with Colombia as Mr. Chavez continues to support the narco-terrorism of the Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia (FARC) and as he campaigns against the United States using Colombian facilities for anti-drug efforts in the Andes.
By Ariel Cohen
There are voices in the Obama Administration who believe that the Kremlin is able and willing to exert pressure on Iran to prevent it from acquiring nuclear weapons. However, perceived geopolitical and economic benefits in the unstable Persian Gulf, in which American influence is on the wane, outweigh Russia’s concerns about a nuclear-armed Iran.
By Ariel Cohen
While Azerbaijan had a bumper year in 2008, the Caucasus at large suffered a shock as Russian tanks rolled into Georiga. This was only one symptom of a deteriorating security situation in Eurasia and the Middle East. With the gas war and the Gaza clash, people shudder as to what else may be coming.
By Ariel Cohen
Despite feverish negotiations with participation of the European Union, Russia and Ukraine failed to agree on resolution of the gas dispute between them. Mutual disdain escalated haggling and acrimony between leaders in Moscow and Kiev to hysterical pitch.
WASHINGTON, Dec. 19 (UPI) -- As UPI reported, at the end of November Russia successfully test-launched its new-generation land- and sea-based ballistic missile designed to penetrate U.S. missile defense systems such as the one planned for deployment in Poland and the Czech Republic. The new Russian missile can be equipped with up to 10 warheads, including decoys, to overwhelm or mislead American sensors.
By Ariel Cohen & Owen Graham
The global financial crisis has caused a massive slide in energy prices, down to $40-$50 a barrel of NYMEX light sweet crude from the July 2008 highs of $147. While oil prices, along with other commodities, are expected to continue their fall in the short term, over the medium to long term, economic recovery is likely to generate growth in demand, and oil prices are expected to recover as energy markets tighten.
By Ariel Cohen
The Arctic is quickly reemerging as a strategic area where vital U.S. interests are at stake. The geopolitical and geo-economic importance of the Arctic region is rising rapidly, and its mineral wealth will likely transform the region into a booming economic frontier in the 21st century.
By Ariel Cohen
Steadily and stealthily, a natural gas cartel has emerged over the last seven years. On October 21 in Tehran, the Gas Exporting Countries’ Forum (GECF) agreed to form a cartel. Russia, Iran, and Qatar announced that they intend to form a yet–unnamed group to "coordinate gas policy." The Group of Three (the "troika") will meet quarterly to coordinate and exercise control over close to two–thirds of the world’s gas reserves and a quarter of all gas production.
By Ariel Cohen
The forthcoming Russian anti-air craft system in Iran may precipitate an early Israeli strike- or promote the posture of mutually assured destruction (MAD) between Israel and Iran. Both options look bad.
In March 2009, Russia will deploy modern S-300 long-range anti-aircraft missiles in Iran. By June 2009, they will become fully operational, as Iranian teams finish training with Russian instructors, according to U.S. and Russian
By Ariel Cohen
Lord George Robertson, deputy chairman of TNK-BP’s board and former secretary-general of Nato, has blasted BP’s Russian partners at a closed-doors luncheon meeting at the Nixon Center in Washington on Thursday, July 25.
By Ariel Cohen
Oil demand appears in unexpected places, where there was very little demand in the recent past. The oil thirst is mounting in the Persian Gulf, Russia, even in Africa, due to expanding wealth, booming construction projects, and growing populations. Government fuel subsidies, typical in energy exporting countries, are increasing demand for gasoline. No wonder that the oil prices are going up, up and away.
By Ariel Cohen
U.S. Secretary of the Treasury Henry (Hank) Paulson is heading to Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Kuwait and the United Arab Emirates, to ask the oil producers to pump more oil to get gasoline prices down. He will also ask their Sovereign Wealth Funds, the ships of the line and aircraft carriers of the 21st century geo-economics, to pump more cash into the ailing U.S. banking system, which is already suffering in the aftermath of the sub-prime crisis.
By Ariel Cohen
The announcement by Gazprom CEO Alexei Miller that his company is aiming for the largest market capitalization in the world is an unmistakable indicator how the global financial tectonic plates are shifting. Russian and Chinese energy and telecommunication companies are leading the global Fortune 100 list; India’s Tata and Mittal Steel have become true multinationals.
The Real World: Runaway Oil
05-23-2008
Many oil producing countries benefit greatly from the rising oil prices. Oil at $135 a barrel brings them windfall profits and allows social and economic development unlike anything people can remember.
By Ariel Cohen
Caspian gas producers will come under the increasing pressure from the troika of the founders of the natural gas cartel which has emerged stealthily and steadily over the last seven years. The governments inBaku, Ashgabat, Astana and Tashkent– the four smaller Eurasian gas exporters -- need to coordinate their policy to keep their sovereignty in the face of the growing clout by Moscow and Teheran.
