Join Mailing List
Thank you! Your submission has been received!
Oops! Something went wrong while submitting the form.
A dangerous escalation is unfolding in the Strait of Hormuz, with Iran and the United States exchanging fire and taking steps that could lead to a potential military clash. Mere hours after the seizure of an unidentified oil tanker and her 12 crew by Iran’s Republican Guard Corps (IRGC) Thursday, an Iranian drone was reportedly downed by a U.S. amphibious assault ship in the Strait just a few kilometers away. The ‘defensive action’ taken by the USS Boxer comes almost one month after Iran shot down a US drone over the Strait. The U.S. may have used a new direct energy weapon fired via 'anti-drone buggy' to disable the drone, a BBC embedded journalist reported from the U.S. naval vessel.
The U.S.-China trade war is escalating. With Tuesday’s threat by President Donald J. Trump to impose additional sanctions on Beijing and recent aggressive exercises by the People’s Liberation Army Navy (PLAN) in the Taiwan Strait (following U.S. arms sales to Taiwan), it is easy to see how the economic quarrel between the U.S. and China could turn into a military one. But that’s not all.
The global energy landscape is changing, and fast. But how rapidly and to what extent is still up for debate. Answers to these critical questions translate to hundreds of billions of dollars in investment decisions, city planning programs, and environmental costs. Beyond profits, millions of livelihoods are at stake.
Ukraine has an energy security problem the size of the Dnipro river. This is despite boasting the third largest hydrocarbon endowment in Europe (after Russia and Norway) and a rapidly growing renewables sector. It also has an impressive, albeit aging, Soviet-era nuclear reactor fleet, and enough power generation capacity to be a net exporter of electricity in 2018. Yet the country is still unable to wrest energy-self sufficiency from Russia's iron grip. Until it does, it will not be able to enjoy true economic and political independence.
Baku. 13 February. REPORT.AZ/ "Should the U.S. government issue a weak response for the violation by Vitol, it could send a message to other oil companies that violating sanctions for the sake of profit is worth the risk," Ariel Cohen, PhD, Senior fellow, the Atlantic Council and founding principal, International market analysis LTD, said.
The long-anticipated global market correction may now be upon us. Worldwide stocks extend their losses over the weekend, leaving little room for optimism of a macroeconomic rebound. Chinese goods-exports growth slowed to 5.4% year-over-year in November, down from 15.6% in October. S&P futures are now down 10% on the year and the Dow Jones is still 2,400 points below its October high.
Some say nuclear energy is the stepdaughter of the energy industry. Many investors beg to differ. On November 14, Kazatomprom (KAP), the state-owned uranium production company of Kazakhstan made history by becoming the first initial public offering of a large Kazakh company in more than a decade.
A U.S. economic sledgehammer is falling on the Islamic Republic of Iran and global energy markets couldn’t care less – at least for now. Brent crude oil futures are up a meager $0.62 from their $72.61 open – bringing the benchmark to $73.23 just 12 hours into the first official day of renewed sanctions. Brent’s American cousin, West Texas Intermediate (WTI), is trading up $0.56 to $63.70 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange.
The market for energy storage is rapidly gaining momentum around the world. The growing cost-competitiveness of carbon-free energy sources, coupled with improving technology and more environmentally conscious government policies are driving a demand boom for batteries in both the transportation and utility power sectors. But just how big is this boom expected to be?
Ukraine is Russia’s gateway into European gas markets. Of the 193 billion cubic meters (bcm) Russia’s state-owned Gazprom pumped westward in 2017 – nearly 40 percent of Europe’s total supply – 93 bcm transited via Ukraine. Moscow, however, wants to change that, diminishing Ukraine’s transit role. Kyiv, on the other hand, hopes to maintain the current arrangement, as transit revenues contribute some USD 2-3 billion annually.
Few days earlier, the Armenian side has approved the deal with Russia on weapons supply to Armenia through a $200 million deal. The Armenian government approved the first $ 100 million loan package, which will be extended to Armenia for 20 years.Some experts viewed it as another provocation by Yerevan ahead of the peace talks, while others argued that the deal hardly gives Armenia more power than those of Azerbaijan.
Is $100 a barrel (bbl) inevitable? Brent crude is now trading at $82/bbl, a four-year high, and most analysts believe it won’t stop there. The geopolitical and global financial climate is certainly hospitable to rising oil prices: Saudi Arabia's Jamal Khashoggi crisis, the specter of Iran sanctions, turmoil in heavy oil-producing states like Venezuela and Libya, and strong economic growth in China and India are driving a 1.5 million barrel per day (b/d) rise in global oil demand.
With North Korea wreaking havoc by testing nuclear weapons and missiles, and with Iranian nuclear program becoming once again the focus of U.S. foreign policy, Washington is searching for solutions to both crises. It is important to keep in mind that there are alternative, safer nuclear energy policies. Pyongyang and Tehran should take note and consider pursuing peaceful nuclear options.It can be done.
With world headlines focused on North Korea’s nuclear tests, Russia’s ties to the Trump administration and landmark elections in France, it’s easy to forget about three ethnic conflicts that show no sign of going away in 2017.The ongoing civil war in Yemen, the continuing massacre of Rohingya Muslim refugees in Myanmar and escalating bloodshed in South Sudan — the world’s newest country —
BBC March 20, 2017
Newsweek
March 1, 2017
By Ariel Cohen
This article first appeared on the Atlantic Council site.As Lt. Gen. H.R. McMaster takes over President Donald Trump’s National Security Council, conducting a bottom-up review and developing a Russia policy at the NSC, Pentagon and State Department should be a top priority for the administration.Russia has resumed a quasi–Cold War posture.
Komsolmolskaya Pravda"Американский политолог: Батальоны НАТО в Прибалтике – это ловушка"By Aleksei DenisenkovJanuary 25, 2017 Название дискуссии, которая прошла накануне в БФУ имени Канта, звучала угрожающе: «Россия и НАТО у красной черты. Почему на Западе считают, что Третья мировая война начнется в Прибалтике».
Regnum January 25, 2017 "Мы можем ожидать переориентацию прибалтийских элит", 25 января 2017, 10:47 — REGNUM С победой Дональда Трампа переориентация элит Прибалтики может иметь место, если эти элиты почувствуют, что ни США, ни ЕС — прежде всего, Германия — особенно их не поддерживают.
24 Vesti Kaliningrad"Большая часть военных НАТО вернётся из Прибалтики и Польши обратно на свои базы"
January 24, 2017
Telekanal Khabar"А.Коэн: Казахстан стал центральным игроком в процессе урегулирования ситуации в Сирии"
January 21, 2017
Forbes
Exxon's Sanctioned Russian Oil Deal Threatens Rex Tillerson As Trump's Secretary Of State
Kenneth Rapoza
December 15, 2016
President-elect Donald Trump wants him. But many Russia-phobic Republicans rind arguably not a single Democratic in the Senate will vote for Exxon CEO Rex Tillerson as Secretary of State.Tillerson announced his retirement Wednesday as CEO of Exxon after 41 years at the oil giant following Trump's nominating him to replace John Kerry at the State Department.
Ariel Cohen, Ph.D., and Ivan Benovic
October 2016
Executive Summary
Concluding its first four years in power, the Georgian Dream coalition government has reformed and changed many aspects of Georgia’s public life. The coalition has not only continued along the path toward reforms initiated by Mikheil Saakashvili’s.
Huffington Post
April 1, 2016
By Ariel Cohen
As Russia has boycotted the global Nuclear Security summit hosted by President Barack Obama in Washington, DC,
March 31-April 1, 2016, questions arise as to the second nuclear superpower’s policies and capabilities. Can Moscow afford to stay out in the cold, when the leaders of over 50 countries decide most urgent questions of international relations — nuclear security and terrorism —
Atlantic Council
March 25, 2016
By Ariel Cohen
Falling oil prices are a major challenge for oil revenue-dependent markets, including Venezuela, Russia, and Iran. But closer to the United States, Canada, which is heavily dependent on oil exports, is also suffering.Estimated Canadian oil reserves sit at 172 billion barrels. Russia, in comparison, only has approximately eighty billion barrels in reserves.
