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During the opening months of the Second World War, things moved slowly first in the period that became known as the Phony War, or Sitzkrieg in German. Following the fall of Poland in September 1939, and before Germany invaded Denmark and Norway in April 1940, the absence of sustained military operations created the illusion of normalcy. The conflict had not yet escalated, though the belligerents were planning, repositioning, replenishing, and preparing for the next phase. Despite the belligerents’ massive wartime potential, populations and policymakers were lulled into a false sense of control.
The United States has struggled with the disposal of spent nuclear fuel for decades. As AI data centers are popping up like mushrooms after a summer shower, the country’s electricity supply faces a massive projected shortage, and scaling up nuclear power production is a must. The lack of a nationwide system for reprocessing or disposing of spent nuclear fuel is a burden that slows the industry and hinders U.S. industrial development. It is a drag on America’s GDP growth.
As AI drives rising energy demand, the Trump Administration is exploring an unconventional energy source: surplus nuclear-weapons-grade plutonium from the Cold War. In May 2026, the Department of Energy, under its Surplus Plutonium Utilization Program, selected five companies—Oklo, Flibe Energy, Exodys Energy, SHINE Technologies, and Standard Nuclear— to examine whether the excess plutonium can be converted into fuel for advanced nuclear reactors. The initiative provides an opportunity for the country to turn what has long been regarded as a costly disposal challenge into a source of domestic energy. We know the physics works. The question is whether it can be made economically viable.
The announcement that Washington and Tehran have agreed to end hostilities and restore commercial access to the Strait of Hormuz has had a massive impact on markets. Crude futures dropped sharply.
Since June 7, Iran and its proxy, the Houthi rebels (with their rallying cry, “God is great, death to America, death to Israel, a curse upon the Jews, victory to Islam”), have launched more than 30 ballistic missiles at Israel, prompting the Israelis to retaliate with airstrikes, and setting the stage for renewed hostilities and escalating instability in the region. Iran’s Parliamentary Speaker, Mohammad Baqer Ghalibaf, said Iran’s response was tied to the U.S. naval blockade and alleged Israeli counterattacks against Hezbollah in Lebanon, and threatened further action against U.S. and Israeli targets. While the attacks have escalated tensions in the Middle East and exposed the fragility of diplomatic efforts, they also highlight the growing economic constraints shaping Iran’s position. Some analysts say that Iran wants a deal to lift the U.S. blockade and allow the export of oil already loaded on tankers stuck in the Gulf.
Warfare in the Persian Gulf is hitting markets well beyond oil and gas. Disruptions near the southern Iranian coastal city of Bandar Abbas and the near-blockade of the Strait of Hormuz — through which roughly one-third of globally traded fertilizer moves — are forcing buyers to rethink sourcing strategies that had been established for decades. Fertilizer prices track the cost of natural gas, one of their principal production inputs, meaning energy shocks ripple directly into the agricultural markets
Ukraine’s post-war economic story will not initially be written by startups or fintech. It will be written in fields, furnaces, mines, pipelines, and ports (and drone production).
As the world watches the next act in the U.S.-Iran drama with bated breath, the headlines write themselves: the worst oil disruption in history, a fifth of global supply at risk, and Brent crude close to $110. The International Energy Agency has warned that the ongoing Iran War represents an unprecedented supply shock. Yet before declaring this the ultimate energy crisis, it is worth asking a simple question: compared to what?
Canada’s first-ever Investment Summit is scheduled for mid-September. The aim is to attract global capital for “nation-building” projects across energy, infrastructure, and critical minerals, demonstrating Ottawa’s efforts to expand the country’s role as a global energy supplier.
Russian missiles continue pounding Ukraine’s energy infrastructure despite President Vladimir Putin’s unilateral declaration of a ceasefire on May 9th. Earlier, Russian Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak announced the suspension of Kazakh crude oil supplies via the Druzhba pipeline to Germany starting May 1st. This pipeline, which became operational in the 1960s, runs from Tatarstan, Russia, and branches through Belarus and Ukraine to supply Germany and Poland via the northern branch, and Slovakia and Hungary via the southern branch. While Novak claimed the move to stop the flow of oil from Kazakhstan contracted by Germany was due to “technical possibilities,” the PCK Schwedt refinery near Berlin, which supplies most of Berlin’s fuel and relies on Kazakhstan for 17% of its crude supplies, will be hit hardest. In seeking to wean themselves from Russian oil, the Germans made an error—they continued to depend on Russian infrastructure for delivery. Germany was also addicted to the Russian gas way past the 2014 Russian invasion of Ukraine, low cost and ease of access being too tempting to give up despite geopolitical dependence.
The world is fighting a two-front energy war. One front runs through the Strait of Hormuz, where Iran and the United States are locked in a standoff. My old acquaintance, International Energy Agency Executive Director Fatih Birol, called this the worst energy shock in history, more severe than the 1970s oil crisis and the Ukraine war combined. The second front runs through the heart of Europe, where Ukrainian drones are systematically dismantling Russia’s oil export infrastructure while Moscow, stung and furious, ispunishing its neighbor and ally, Kazakhstan, and its former energy customer, Germany, for it.
Investors in Saudi Arabia, Qatar, and the United Arab Emirates who accumulated trillions from decades of oil sales have long been deploying sovereign wealth funds into Western assets. Their money has gone into technology, sports, infrastructure, real estate, and entertainment. That strategy was built on a simple premise: petrodollar revenues generated at home could be channeled abroad into stable, high-return sectors.
Oil prices collapsed from $119.54 in the Asian intra-day trade on March 9th to $89.88 on April 17th, after Iran announced that, following a ceasefire in Lebanon, it would keep the Strait of Hormuz open for the duration of the ceasefire. While no one knows exactly what will happen next as far as the conflict goes, it is safe to say that oil prices will continue to be on a roller coaster ride in response to developments.While from the President’s point of view, his Administration may be bobbing and weaving as it fights a determined, mendacious, and fanatical Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, to many observers, the dance looks more like zigzagging between fear of the economic and political backlash from rising energy prices and the need to terminate Tehran’s nuclear ambitions once and for all.
On April 4th, President Donald Trump posted on Truth Social: “Remember when I gave Iran ten days to make a deal or open up the Hormuz Strait. Time is running out…” Markets have been recoiling amid instability in the Middle East, and it does not appear that jittery investors will experience any relief in the near term. However, this is more than a short-term shock reaction. It signals a deeper shift.
In the wake of American and Israeli strikes against Iran on February 28th, Tehran reacted swiftly, attacking energy infrastructure, water desalination plants, and other soft targets across the Middle East as well as moving to close the Strait of Hormuz. Closure of the vital Strait has long been foreseen by security experts, including this author, who warned about the Iranian regime’s intentions in a 2007 Congressional testimony, but it still shocked markets. Crude oil prices jumped from approximately $70 dollars a barrel to just over $110 a barrel as the crisis entered its second month.
In March 2026, Cuba experienced nationwide blackouts affecting the island’s population of over 10,000,000 and bringing routine economic activity and essential services to a screeching halt. In many media narratives, this state of affairs is laid at the feet of the U.S. energy embargo on the island, often in the context of American policy towards Latin America.
The U.S./Israel-Iran war is not just a confrontation with the Shia theocratic dictatorship in Iran and the Iranian proxies, like the Houthis and Hezbollah, involved in combat operations. Iran’s patrons and backers, primarily China and Russia, factor heavily in the mix. And there is no greater backer of Iran than Russia.
The U.S.–Israeli strikes on Iran that began on February 28th quickly escalated tensions across the Persian Gulf, prompting a range of Iranian attacks against energy infrastructure throughout the region and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz. The Strait, a narrow water passage bordered on the north by Iran through which ships can transit from the Persian Gulf to the Gulf of Oman and the open Arabian Sea/Indian Ocean, accounts for 20% of daily global oil and liquefied natural gas flows. Predictably, global markets reacted immediately. Major equity indexes tumbled on Monday, while gas prices soared. By Thursday, Brent crude approached$84 a barrel, its highest level since July 2024, while West Texas Intermediate climbed roughly 8%, nearing $77 per barrel. Historically speaking, these are manageable increases.
After U.S.-Israeli combat operations began against Iran on Saturday, February 28th, global energy prices surged as the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps announced that passage through the Strait of Hormuz was “not allowed.” This narrow body of water (the navigation channel is only two-miles wide) moves 20%-30% of the world’s supply of crude oil and liquified natural gas every day, including the majority of exports from major hydrocarbon-producing countries in the Persian Gulf. Commercial vessels are now avoiding passage through the Strait. On Monday, Iran announced that any ship trying to pass would be attacked. If these disruptions persist through a prolonged blockade, they will seriously threaten global energy supplies.
Since U.S. President Donald Trump took office in 2025, he has launched a full-scale attack on renewable energy, repeating the “climate hoax” accusation many times. The attacks on wind turbines became particularly loud. However, what this really means is not the end of clean energy, but new winners and losers in Trump’s energy economy, with China’s global domination of the renewable industries looming large.
Following last month’s dramatic capture of former Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro, the Trump Administration is now shifting into high gear to expand the footprint of Western companies in Venezuela’s oil sector. Through the Office of Foreign Assets Control (OFAC), a series of new Venezuela General Licenses (GLs) have been published, including GL 50, which authorizes companies, including BP, Chevron, Eni, Repsol, and Shell to begin oil production operations in Venezuela. These new authorizations come just after U.S. Energy Secretary Chris Wright visited some of the South American nation’s oil-producing facilities, accompanied by its Chavista acting president, Delcy Rodríguez.
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On January 21, 2026, U.S. President Donald Trump announced a framework for a potential deal over Greenland after meeting with NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte. “We have formed the framework of a future deal with respect to Greenland and, in fact, the entire Arctic Region,” Trump wrote. This agreement prompted the U.S. president to back down from earlier threats to impose tariffs on the exports of eight European countries, which were scheduled to take effect on February 1st.
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President Donald Trump promised to reconsider tariffs on India if New Delhi ceases purchasing Russian crude oil. Targeting Moscow’s second-largest crude oil buyer strikes directly at the Kremlin’s financial underbelly in its war of attrition against Ukraine. While this leverage may prove consequential as peace talks are limping, some in Washington worry that pressure on India is strengthening those in New Delhi arguing for “strategic autonomy”, including the India’s Foreign Minister S Jaishankar. Speaking to the media in at the Munich Security Conference, he refused to a give a clear answer to the question whether India is cutting its Russian oil purchases. In the meantime, a political row exploded in New Delhi as the Congress-led opposition has accused Narendra Modi’s government of “selling out under pressure”. Overplaying Washington’s hand could reduce future avenues for cooperation to contain China in Southeast Asia or the Middle East with Indian support, through the I2U2 and other frameworks.
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Japan’s 2026 election results signal a major energy shift for the country. Sanae Takaichi of the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) reclaimed her position as Prime Minister of Japan, winning by a landslide during the snap general election. She effectively gave her party control of the lower house with a two-thirds supermajority without any coalition obligations. With control over three-quarters of the chamber, 352 seats out of the 465, the ruling party will be able to overridevetoes by the upper house. The ability to push its policies will provide the LDP with certainty over its proposed energy and industrial policies.
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The vision for a rebuilt Gaza that Jared Kushner unveiled at the World Economic Forum in Davos this January is nothing if not audacious. A “New Gaza,” defined by skyscrapers and high-tech data centers, aims to replace a century of terrorism and wars — and grievance politics with the promise and logic of the free market.
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