21st Century Security

Federal Reserve Warns Of Climate Risks, In Historic First

November 11, 2020

Days after Joe Biden’s contentious presidential win, the U.S. Federal Reserve – known as one of America’s most conservative institutions – acknowledged for the first time the financial risks of climate change in its biannual financial stability report. In comments attached to the publication, Fed Governor Lael Brainard said the following:

“Acute hazards, such as storms, floods, or wildfires, may cause investors to update their perceptions of the value of real or financial assets suddenly…slow increases in mean temperatures or sea levels, or a gradual change in investor sentiment about those risks, introduce the possibility of abrupt tipping points or significant swings in sentiment.”

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Biden’s Energy Policy Outlook

November 9, 2020

The historic win of the Presidency by Joe Biden will massively change U.S. policies, foreign and domestic. It is too early to project the scope of that transformation. Without a doubt, Biden’s energy policy will differ from that of his predecessor.

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Plugging Into The Future: The Electric Vehicle Market Outlook

October 26, 2020

At Thursday’s presidential debate, former Vice President Joe Biden pledged to transition the U.S. economy “away from the oil industry.” This goal cannot be achieved without the electrification of road transport, which accounted for almost 70% of America’s oil consumption in 2019. Market forces and green government policies are accelerating this shift in the United States and around the world.

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The Global Take | Post-VP Debate

October 9, 2020

In this video series, Dr. Ariel Cohen discusses current events happening around the world. The discussion in this video will focus on the recent Vice-Presidential debate between Vice President Mike Pence and Senator Kamala Harris.

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The Global Take | Tik Tok, Belarus, & Navalny

September 25, 2020

In this video series, Dr. Ariel Cohen discusses current events happening around the world. The discussion in this video will focus on possible Tik Tok sanctions, the events in Belarus, & the poisoning of Russian opposition leader Alexei Navalny. Thank you for watching and be sure to subscribe for more updates on currents events happening around the world.

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China holds the cards in US-EU poker

July 15, 2020

Energy’s geopolitical and geo-economic importance means it is always at risk of becoming a pawn in wider strategic conflict. The standoff between Beijing, Washington and much of Europe—complicated by China’s ongoing crackdown on civil liberties in Hong Kong—is no different

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Moscow Sends Combat Jets, Escalates Involvement In Oil-Rich Libya

May 28, 2020

United States Africa Command (U.S. AFRICOM) announced via twitter Wednesday that Russia has sent at least 14 combat jets to Libya, flown by Russian pilots, in an effort to bolster the Kremlin’s Libyan National Army (LNA) allies in the oil-rich nation.

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Oil Prices May Recover Before 2021

April 29, 2020

Developments in the oil market over the past two months have been catastrophic. From the price war between Saudi Arabia and Russia, the collapse of demand caused by the coronavirus pandemic, historic (but ultimately unsuccessful) OPEC+ cuts, to negative prices, the prospects of a crude market rebound seem dim.

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Oil Plummets Over 300% To Almost -$40 A Barrel In Historic Collapse

April 20, 2020

In a historic collapse, U.S. oil prices plummeted over 300% on Monday as traders unloaded their positions ahead of the May contract expiration Tuesday. Of all the unpredictable economic swings in financial markets that have occurred since the onset of the global pandemic, Monday’s oil wipeout is without a doubt the most jaw-dropping.

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THE COVID-19 DISASTER HAS BEEN DECADES IN THE MAKING—AND BOTH REPUBLICANS AND DEMOCRATS ARE TO BLAME | OPINION

April 17, 2020

Human history is replete with unanticipated catastrophic events that come like a bolt from the blue. During World War II, both Nazi Germany's attack on the Soviet Union (Operation Barbarossa) and the Japanese attack on Pearl Harbor came as strategic surprises. Then as now, intelligence warnings were ignored.

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COVID-19: The leadership failure

April 17, 2020

Unanticipated events with global consequences have always been a part of human history. During World War II, both Nazi Germany’s attack on the Soviet Union (Operation Barbarossa) and the Japanese attack on Pearl Harbor came as strategic surprises.

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Iran Most Likely To Damage A Saudi Oil Facility: Cohen (Radio)

January 7, 2020

Ariel Cohen, Senior Fellow at the Atlantic Council and Founding Principal of International Market Analysis, and David Wainer, Bloomberg International government reporter, react to Secretary of State Mike Pompeo’s press conference and the escalation with Iran.

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The Strategic Upside Behind Russia’s $55 Billion ‘Power Of Siberia’ Pipeline To China

December 6, 2019

Beijing and Moscow, which saw the first shipments of Russian natural gas to China via the much-awaited Power of Siberia pipeline.  The $55 billion project is Russia’s most significant energy undertaking since the collapse of the Soviet Union, part of a larger $400 billion deal to supply China with 38 billion cubic meters of natural gas (bcm) per year for 30 years.

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Making History: U.S. Exports More Petroleum Than It Imports In September and October

November 26, 2019

In its latest Short Term Energy Outlook, the US Energy Information Agency (EIA) published preliminary data that, once confirmed, would represent a turning point in American energy history.

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A Breakthrough In American Energy Dominance? U.S. Navy Patents Compact Fusion Reactor

October 30, 2019

President Donald Trump’s energy dominance narrative – fueled by the prolific production of oil and gas from America’s Shale Gale – recently got a boost from the United States Navy. The US Naval Air Warfare Center Aircraft Division filed a patent for a compact fusion reactor (CFR) last month, one that claims to improve upon the shortcomings of the Lockheed Martin Skunkworks CFR that uses similar “plasma confinement” technology.

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Expert: U.S. weak response for Vitol's violation could send message to other oil companies

February 14, 2019

Baku. 13 February. REPORT.AZ/ "Should the U.S. government issue a weak response for the violation by Vitol, it could send a message to other oil companies that violating sanctions for the sake of profit is worth the risk," Ariel Cohen, PhD, Senior fellow, the Atlantic Council and founding principal, International market analysis LTD, said.

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US requests UN Security Council meeting to discuss crisis in Venezuela

February 1, 2019

Atlantic Council senior fellow Ariel Cohen and Fox Business foreign policy analyst Walid Phares on the widespread protests against Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro and how the U.S. has called for a UN Security Council meeting to discuss the crisis in Venezuela.

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LOOK ON THE BRIGHT SIDE: THE TRUMP-PUTIN SUMMIT COULD HAVE BEEN WORSE

October 23, 2018

What exactly happened in Helsinki? Washington—from Congress to the administration to the media—has been left scratching their heads. Trump’s dealing with Russia is like vaudeville meets a spy thriller—Monty Python meets Tom Clancy.

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TRUMP MUST STAND UP TO PUTIN—BUT HE NEEDS EUROPE'S HELP

October 23, 2018

On July 16, Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin are to meet in Helsinki, Finland, for what promises to be an historic summit—one likely to define the course of U.S.-Russian relations for many years to come. Following on the heels of the July 12 NATO summit in Brussels, the outcome of these U.S.-Russia talks may affect the unity, and even the survival, of the West.

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NATO Should Stand Up Black Sea Command Before It’s Too Late

October 23, 2018

At its summit in Warsaw on July 8 and 9, NATO should take urgent steps to protect its allies and partners on its southeastern flank. Bulgaria, Romania, and Turkey, as well as Ukraine and Georgia, are all under severe pressure from Russia and require NATO assistance.

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As Russia and Iran Strengthen Ties, U.S. Should Support Key Ally Georgia

October 23, 2018

As the US is engaged in pre-election navel-gazing, Russia is not taking a summer nap. The Kremlin never sleeps, and especially not in August, and not during the Olympic season. The Beijing Olympics in 2008 coincided with the Russia-Georgian conflict, and the Ukrainian crisis developed during the Sochi Winter Olympics.

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Germany and the US need a new beginning in their security relationship

October 23, 2018

In the snow-covered, fairy-tale city of Munich, global security leaders gathered for their yearly conclave, the Munich Security Conference, the Davos of foreign policy and power.However, instead of Bavarian glory, tension was in the air. This participant repeatedly saw speakers talking past each other, creating an impression that this was not a dialogue about the fate of the world, but an absurdist theater spectacle by Eugene Ionesco.

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Russia's Nord Stream II Pipeline Is Ukraine's Worst Nightmare

October 23, 2018

Ukraine is Russia’s gateway into European gas markets. Of the 193 billion cubic meters (bcm) Russia’s state-owned Gazprom pumped westward in 2017 – nearly 40 percent of Europe’s total supply – 93 bcm transited via Ukraine. Moscow, however, wants to change that, diminishing Ukraine’s transit role. Kyiv, on the other hand, hopes to maintain the current arrangement, as transit revenues contribute some USD 2-3 billion annually.

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Dr. Cohen on BBC News: Trump in China

November 9, 2017

Kazakhstan is opting for nuclear engagement, not deterrence

October 23, 2017

With North Korea wreaking havoc by testing nuclear weapons and missiles, and with Iranian nuclear program becoming once again the focus of U.S. foreign policy, Washington is searching for solutions to both crises. It is important to keep in mind that there are alternative, safer nuclear energy policies. Pyongyang and Tehran should take note and consider pursuing peaceful nuclear options.It can be done.

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