21st Century Security

Saudi-Iranian Crisis, China’s Economic Slide Set Stage for Perfect Storm in the Oil Market

January 5, 2016

The Atlantic Council

January 5, 2016

By Ariel Cohen

The deepening rift between Saudi Arabia and Iran may have dire consequences for global oil markets because the kingdom’s Eastern Province, where the Shia are in the majority, produces most of its oil. Production would suffer if Iran were to foment unrest among this population.

Continued

Russia's Quarrel With Turkey Is Distracting—and Dangerous

December 3, 2015

The National Interest

December 3, 2015

By Ariel Cohen

De-escalation is crucial in order to restore focus on the Syrian war itself.As the world’s leaders gathered for the COP 21 climate change summit in Paris, a more immediate and grave threat should have preoccupied their attention. Two regional powers, Russia and Turkey, have come to blows for the first time since the end of the Cold War.

Continued

Dr. Cohen on US-Russian anti-ISIS cooperation and Syria (Russian)

November 18, 2015

Dr. Cohen on RBK comments on anti-ISIS cooperation between US and Russia

November 18, 2015

REPORT: Developing a Western Energy Strategy for the Black Sea Region and Beyond

November 18, 2015

Atlantic Council

November 18, 2015

By Dr. Ariel Cohen

In Developing a Western Energy Strategy for the Black Sea Region and Beyond, Senior Fellow at the Atlantic Council's Dinu Patriciu Eurasia Center and Global Energy Center Ariel Cohen addresses the urgent need for a European policy on Black Sea energy following Russia's annexation of Crimea.

Continued

A 'Cold War 2.0' playing out in the Middle East

November 3, 2015

Putin's government tries to establish a security belt stretching from Iraq to the Mediterranean, expert tells the "Post.The US is facing a "Cold War 2.0" against Russia in places such as Ukraine, the Baltic states, and Syria as President Vladimir Putin’s government tries to establish an external security belt stretching from Iraq to the Mediterranean.

‍Jerusalem Post

November 3, 2015

By Ariel Ben Solomon

Continued

Dr. Cohen on elections in Azerbaijan (Video)

November 2, 2015

i24 News Azerbaijan

November 2, 2015

Trial by turbulence in Turkey

October 30, 2015

As the maelstrom of mayhem in the Middle East – from Benghazi to Baghdad and from Tripoli to Tikrit – expands, Turkey, a pillar of U.S. Middle East policy, is facing tough tests from without and within. Sunni-Shi’a strife combined with the rise of ISIS is erasing the post-World War I borders in the Levant, driving a flow of millions of refugees into Europe.

The Hill

October 30, 2015

By Ariel Cohen

Continued

Ariel Cohen: Georgia Could Become an Energy Exporter

October 29, 2015

Georgia Today, like many of our Readers, was interested in the groundbreaking announcement by a US independent oil and gas exploration and production company Frontera Resources over discovery of an estimated 3.8 trillion cubic meters of gas in the Georgian region of Kakheti early this month.To give a qualified analysis around the topic, Georgia Today exclusively interviewed Dr. Ariel Cohen.

Georgia Today

October 29, 2015

By Zviad Adzinbaia

Continued

War in Syria: Time for America to Get Tough on Russia

October 15, 2015

The National Interest

October 15, 2015

By Ariel Cohen‍

Last week, Russia hit Syria with 26 Kalibr cruise missiles fired from its warships in the Caspian Sea. The strikes mirrored the U.S. Tomahawk missile strikes against Iraq and Afghanistan of the past decade. This is the first time Russia is using military force outside the Soviet perimeter since the collapse of the USSR, returning to play global power politics. If Russia stumbles into a Cold War—or worse—it may be costly, if not fatal.

Continued

Dr. Ariel Cohen on the September 2015 clashes on and around Temple Mount in Jerusalem

September 14, 2015

TRT World September 14, 2015

Why Russia keeps pumping crude even as oil prices plummet

September 8, 2015

Russia – despite serious economic headwinds, and Western energy sanctions – is scrambling make sure it retains its status as a global leader in oil and gas.The persistent collapse of oil prices has been chalked up to a game of chicken between US shale producers and the Saudi-led Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries.

The Christian Science Monitor

September 8, 2015

By Cristina Maza, Staff writer

Continued

Russia from Ukraine to Syria: Helping the Cat Down the Tree

September 8, 2015

Russia’s military involvement in Syria and Ukraine obligates the United States and its European allies to bring the Kremlin back to Earth and recognize that such adventures cannot be sustained indefinitely. Russia simply does not have the money and human resources to do so in view of low oil prices and birth rates. It will find itself increasingly isolated if it supports Syria’s Assad regime and separatists in the Donbas.

The Atlantic Council

September 8, 2015

By Ariel Cohen

Continued

Expert tells ‘Post’: Moscow "has definitely raised the quality of equipment it is sending" to Syria

September 7, 2015

Russia’s recent military buildup in Syria has sparked concern in Western capitals as Vladimir Putin again appears to be shrewdly calculating that the West will not significantly counter his moves.The Russian president’s annexation of Ukraine’s Crimea region last year was not strongly resisted by the Europeans or Americans.

The Jerusalem Post

September 7, 2015

By Ariel Ben Solomon

Continued

A More-Interesting-Than-Usual Panel on the Iran Deal

September 5, 2015

It’s Saturday night of Labor Day weekend. If you’re anything like me, rather than having some barbecue and a beer, or watching baseball, or watching tennis, or watching football (etc), or reading a book, you’re probably wondering: “How could I learn a little bit more about the JCPOA with Iran, aka ‘the deal’?”You’ve come to the right place.

The Atlantic

September 5, 2015

By James Fallows

Continued

Iran Nuclear Agreement (VIDEO)

September 4, 2015

Iran Nuclear Agreement C-SPAN

September 4, 2015

Panelists talked about the strengths and weaknesses of the Iran nuclear agreement.

Watch

No more Montenegrin pork? Russia adds 4 countries to list of import bans

August 13, 2015

The ban includes meat, fish, dairy products, fruit, and vegetables. While some analysts have suggested that the economic consequences could be dire, others have scoffed that it's purely political.Russia has added Albania, Montenegro, Liechtenstein and Iceland to a list of countries from which it has banned most food imports in retaliation for Western sanctions over the Ukraine crisis.

The Christian Science Monitor

August 13, 2015

By Cristina Maza, Staff writer

Continued

Moscow’s Veto of MH17 Tribunal: A Blunder of Potentially Huge Proportions

August 5, 2015

On July 29, Russia vetoed a draft UN resolution seeking to set up a tribunal to prosecute those responsible for shooting down a Malaysia Airlines jumbo jet more than a year ago.By exercising its Security Council veto against the resolution, Moscow has lost control of the process, committing a possible error that may ultimately lead to convictions of rebel leaders and Russian officials.

By Ariel Cohen

Newsweek and the Atlantic Council

August 5, 2015

Continued

How Russia Could Become a Food Superpower

July 15, 2015

ARIEL COHEN: Russia could be a food superpower, given its vast soil and water resources. It still may become one, but the question is whether the food will be Western or Chinese.

The Wall Street Journal - The Experts

Jul 15, 2015

By Dr. Ariel Cohen

Continued

Earth to Russia. Come Back to Reality

July 15, 2015

Vladimir Zhirinovsky, Vice Speaker of the Duma and leader of the ultra-nationalist Liberal Democratic Party, has announced that in 2016, Russian flags will fly over Kyiv, Riga, Tallinn, and Vilnius. Zhirinovsky is known to fly trial balloons on the Kremlin’s behalf. One cannot tell whether this is information warfare, a mere bluff to unsettle NATO, or a real signal. Credit: Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty.

Atlantic Council

July 15, 2015

By Dr. Ariel Cohen

Continued

China's “One Belt – One Road” Mega-project Will Boost Eurasian Natural Gas Opportunities

June 29, 2015

The efforts of China to ensure its economic development and preeminence include the creation of the “New Silk Road” - the enormous system of infrastructure mega-projects to stretch from the Pacific to the Atlantic. If completed, it will be the largest infrastructure undertaking ever built. Natural gas features prominently in the plan.

By Ariel Cohen

Natural Gas Europe

June 29th, 2015

Continued

Hey, Remember Me? It’s Europe: The Transatlantic Alliance is in Trouble

June 25, 2015

Estonian President Toomas Hendrik Ilves cautioned at the Bratislava Global Security Forum on June 20, 2015, that the West should not stress the differences between old and new Europe, but find ways to unite Central and Eastern Europe with Western Europe."We lived next to Russia for 500 years—listen to what we have to say," Polish President Bronislaw Komorowski said at the Bratislava Global Security Forum on June 20. He's right.

By Arial Cohen

The Atlantic Council

June 25, 2015

Continued

Turkey threatens the major prospects for Eastern Med gas supply

June 22, 2015

As Europe seeks to diversify its sources of natural gas as an alternative to the politically sensitive Russian supply, a massive off-shore gas source in the Mediterranean is ready for exploration and drilling. There are game-changing stakes at play.Unfortunately, the Turkish leadership has threatened to use force to stop this from happening.

By Ariel Cohen

Security Europe

June 2015

Continued

US should act in Mideast now to avoid messier cleanup later, says expert

June 11, 2015

Ariel Cohen: Iran going nuclear would lead to Saudis following suit.By decreasing its footprint in the Middle East at a time of growing threats, the US is putting off what inevitably will turn out to be much costlier interventions down the road, a prominent US-based expert tells The Jerusalem Post.

By Ariel Ben Solomon

The Jerusalem PostJune 11, 2015

Continued

Beyond Oil and Gas: Kazakhstan Bets its Future on Reform

June 8, 2015

Recent events in Ukraine and Russia’s anti-Western rhetoric and military posture force European energy consumers to look for alternatives for Russian hydrocarbons. One of the possible suppliers of both oil and gas could be Kazakhstan, which boast the largest hydrocarbon resources in the oil-rich Caspian basin.Kazakhstan is among the top 15 countries in the world when it comes to essential oil reserves...

By Dr. Ariel Cohen

Natural Gas Europe

June 08, 2015

Continued

Father of Recovering Kremlin Critic Vladimir Kara-Murza Says His Son Was Poisoned

June 5, 2015

Vladimir Kara-Murza has regained consciousness in a Moscow hospital after falling gravely ill on May 26, and the Russian opposition leader's father now says his son was poisoned."After the assassination of Boris Nemtsov, the collapse and severe, life-threatening medical condition of Kara-Murza raised suspicions among his friends that he may have been deliberately poisoned,"

By Melinda Haring

The Atlantic Council

June 4, 2015

Continued