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In 2025, artificial intelligence underwent a transformative shift from scientific advancement to practical economic force multiplier. As technological capabilities developed, AI use rose exponentially. Much of the discourse around the new technology focuses on the major players and their political struggles. China and the U.S. see AI in geopolitical terms, as a tool to transform their military capabilities and shape the international order. AI is also defining great power rivalries and is increasingly embedded in the national security policies of countries large and small around the world. Emerging markets are facing a major challenge in dealing with articifial intelligence.
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Russia’s war machine is showing unmistakable signs of strain. After nearly four years of fiscal overreach caused by injecting trillions of rubles into the Russian economy, the Kremlin can no longer disguise its distress. American envoys met in Geneva on Sunday, November 23rd with Ukrainian officials to discuss a permanent ceasefire, however, this is no time to go easy on Moscow, as U.S. sanctions seem to be working.
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President Trump is definitely changing the course of American foreign policy, trying to pull China’s allies away from Beijing. It may not work as well as he hopes. After Moscow rebutted his entreaties to cease fire in Ukraine, the White House began trying to woo Islamabad. Despite Pakistan’s tumult with India and Afghanistan, President Trump has moved to deepen ties with the nuclear-armed Muslim power.
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The British Anglo American and Canadian Teck Resources mining companies announced an agreement on one of the most significant mining mergers in recent history that will create a new giant with a combined market value exceeding $53 billion. The all-share deal is expected to close within 18 months, pending regulatory approval, and will establish Anglo Teck as one of the top five global copper producers. This marks a tectonic shift in global mineral supplies with major geopolitical implications.
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While Russia’s economic performance has been lackluster as its war economy struggles to underpin growth, a clear bright spot remains: nuclear energy. Following the Shanghai Cooperation Organization Summit, where the Power of Siberia 2 pipeline progress dominated headlines, Rosatom signed a memorandum with China National Nuclear Corporation (CNNC) on personnel collaboration, building on recent wins in Central Asia, Europe, and North Africa. Rosatom has customers lined up worldwide, but as financing problems and global competition build, the jury is out on whether they can expand on their recent success. As the United States seeks to modernize its moribund nuclear power capabilities, Russia’s Rosatom stands as both a competitor and a model.
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The spectacular displays at the 2025 Shanghai Cooperation Organization summit in Tianjin were carefully crafted to showcase the evolution of Xi Jinping’s Beijing-centric political bloc which aspires to rival Washington. The U.S. administration is embracing an “America First” agenda and using tariffs as a foreign policy battering ram. Meanwhile, President Trump may be on to something in writing “Please give my warmest regards to Vladimir Putin and Kim Jong Un as you conspire against the United States of America.”
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Turkey sits at the intersection of Europe, Russia, the Caucasus, and the Middle East—a prime geopolitical piece of real estate in the Eastern hemisphere. As Europe and the U.S. seek to reduce reliance on Russian energy corridors as well as Iranian oil and gas, Ankara is moving quickly to position itself as the key transit hub linking Asia and Europe. Lacking significant reserves of its own, Turkey is leveraging its geographical position, including Russia/the Black Sea, the Caucasus, Iraq, post-war Syria, and access to Europe. President Recep Tayyip Erdogan is balancing alliances to expand his country’s regional influence.
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This past Sunday, President Donald J. Trump and European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen announced preliminary terms of a trade deal between the U.S. and the EU from the Trump Turnberry golf resort in Scotland. A key component of the agreement is a pledge from the European Union to purchase $750 billion worth of energy exports from the U.S. over the next three years. The deal also involves commitments by the EU for European companies to invest $600 billion in a number of U.S. industries. In return, the EU received only a maximum 15% tariff on most of its exports rather than the 30% many had feared. However, announcement of the “big ticket” items averted what many had feared would devolve into a trade war as Trump’s declared August 1 deadline for 30% tariffs to kick in loomed.
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The U.S.-Russian confrontation is escalating. President Trump has threatened 100 percent secondary tariffs on countries buying Russian oil and other exports, promising to impose them within 50 days unless Russia and Ukraine reach a ceasefire. The Senate, led by Sens. Lindsay Graham (R-SC) and Richard Blumenthal (D-CT), is proposing a 500 percent tariff package targeting nations that purchase Russian energy resources, including oil, gas, and uranium.
Russia, meanwhile, is opening a new front in the strategic South Caucasus. Ukrainian military intelligence (HUR) recently published a military order directing reinforcements to the Russian base in Armenia, a move HUR spokesperson Andrei Yusov described as part of Moscow’s strategy to “destabilize the global security situation.”
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U.S. President Donald Trump's Energy Dominance Council plans to host a liquified natural gas summit in Alaska on June 2, where it hopes to announce that Japan and South Korea have committed to the long-pursued Alaska LNG project to ease American gas shipments to Asia.
Since his return to the Oval Office, Trump has positioned hydrocarbons as the backbone of the U.S. energy portfolio and also as a lever for exerting America’s geopolitical influence on the global stage.
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The tariffs announced by the Trump Administration at the beginning of April have cast a shadow across international energy supply chains. The new policies were delayed for ninety days less than a week later, and the much-feared shortages and price hikes haven’t yet materialized. Nevertheless, the mood in the industry remains pessimistic.
In May, the U.S. Department of Commerce announced that companies based in Cambodia, Malaysia, Thailand, and Vietnam are dumping solar panel cells at low rates into the U.S. market while receiving subsidies from the Chinese government, setting the stage for the imposition of tariffs on all parties involved.
This edition of the Global Take features Dr. Ariel Cohen's appearance on i24 News, where he analyzes developments in the talks between Russia and Ukraine in Istanbul as President Trump visits the Middle East.
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Governments are seeking to leverage AI investment to accelerate societal and economic development and bootstrap to the next level of economic development. While some observers express concerns that the growth of AI could widen the gap between the developed world and emerging markets, it also provides an opportunity for energy-rich developing countries to technologically leapfrog. Few regions are better equipped to exploit this uranium and AI boom than the world’s largest exporter of uranium: Kazakhstan.
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Dr. Ariel Cohen joins Belsat TV to discuss President Donald Trump's impact over the first 100 days of his second term in office.
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The United States and Ukraine signed a long-awaited deal on April 30 to give the U.S. priority access to Ukrainian critical minerals and other natural resources. After months of acrimonious disputes and negotiations over a ceasefire/peace between Russia and Ukraine, U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent is now touting the agreement as a signal to Russia that “the Trump Administration is committed to a peace process centered on a free, sovereign, and prosperous Ukraine,” NBC reported. If that is the case, the signed agreement may be a step in the right direction. But consistent American military and diplomatic aid, in coordination with European allies, will be necessary to clinch a sustainable solution to the 11-year-old war.
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President Donald J. Trump’s efforts to attain peace between Russia and Ukraine have already prompted questions about the future of Russian energy exports, the country’s main cash cow, and whether the door will open to joint projects between Russia and the E.U or the U.S. Whatever progress is made in any negotiations, will be difficult if not impossible to go back to pre-2022 arrangements. Doing so isn’t necessarily in the E.U.’s or America’s strategic or economic interests.
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Just as President Volodymyr Zelensky was preparing to arrive in Washington D.C. on Friday, February 28th to sign an unprecedented US-Ukraine agreement on strategic minerals, Vladimir Putin came up with a proposal of his own, involving joint development with the U.S. of rare earth metals, aluminum, and hydro power in Russia. It’s trolling of 99th level.
At face value, this could be seen as a step towards renormalizing U.S.-Russia trade relations. President Trump is entertaining the notion of economic rapprochement but isn’t ready to commit yet. Economic cooperation comes after the cease-fire or peace accord in Ukraine, not before. On February 27th, only a couple of days after Putin’s proposal, Trump extended wide-ranging sanctions on Russia. Meanwhile, US Russia watchers are telling this author that Putin’s offer is nothing more than a troll to counter the Trump-Zelensky mineral deal.
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In a far-reaching move set to take effect on March 4th, President Donald J. Trump imposed a 25% tariff on all foreign imports from Canada, a close ally and the US’ largest energy trading partner, as well as on Mexico.
Additionally, a 25% tariff was announced on imported steel and aluminum. Canada is the largest supplier to the U.S. for both. Aluminum and steel are vital for many products, including energy infrastructure components. Canada, understandably, is not pleased. Ottawa signaled that "everything is on the table" in response, potentially including cutting off energy supplies. Given Canada’s central role in U.S. energy security, imposing further tariffs could lead to volatility in American energy markets, price increases, and a broader reshaping of geopolitical alliances.
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As international tensions grow, scientific developments become more crucial than ever to creating war-winning technologies. There is a reason the Manhattan Project was kept under strict security measures – and even then, there were leaks.
Beginning in the 1940s, Stalin’s USSR used intelligence to steal America’s atomic secrets and develop nuclear weapons. Throughout the Cold War, the Soviets ran a massive spying operation to gain access to submarine, computer, and space tech. In preparation for its 2022 invasion of Ukraine and as the conflict continued, Russia ramped up its intelligence gathering and influence activities around the world. Recently, concerns have once again been raised that Moscow has had an unobstructed path to obtaining information about cutting-edge nuclear technology from the European Organization for Nuclear Research (CERN).
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President Trump has floated the idea of relocating Gazans to other Muslim countries so that reconstruction can get underway and recently noted that he is “not confident” in the durability of the current ceasefire deal between Israel and Hamas while underscoring Gaza’s potential. “Some beautiful things could be done with it …,” he said, cautioning against allowing Hamas to prevail. “They didn’t exactly run it well. It was run viciously and badly.”
The president’s insights are compelling. Hamas continues to violate the ceasefire terms by refusing to release hostage Arbel Yahud, provide updates on all hostages and account for the Bibas family, which includes two captured little boys, Kfir, 2, and Ariel, 5, along with their mother, Shiri.
The Gaza Strip desperately needs a complete break from the tunnel-infested terrorism haven it became under Hamas. At the same time, Israel cannot tolerate any repeat of the murderous chaos that terrorists wreaked on Oct. 7, 2023. Nor can it countenance a continuation of the shelling and attacks on Israelis that Islamist terrorist organizations have conducted from the strip since 2006.
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Russia and Iran signed a mutual defense and security cooperation pact on Jan. 17 — just days before President Trump’s inauguration. Both nations are primary opponents of the U.S., demonstrated by Russia’s war against Ukraine and Iran’s attempts to assassinate Trump, its regular proclamations of “Death to America, death to Israel!” and its backing of terrorist proxies Hamas, Palestinian Islamic Jihad, the Houthis and Hezbollah.
This new pact represents the next move in a long game to shift the global balance of power away from the U.S. and its allies. Although the new administration is coming into office with many pressing agenda items, the Moscow-Tehran partnership needs quick attention before it leads to threats, bloodshed and more war.
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On Dec. 3, China banned exporting critical minerals such as gallium, germanium, and antimony to the United States. This came in the wake of the Biden administration's announcement of new restrictions on the sale of chips and specialized chip-making machinery and software to China the day before. This exchange is merely the latest round in the ongoing battle for the raw materials that control the future of energy and tech. China and the U.S. are in a wrestling match over mineral dominance that is more critical than the 20th-century struggle for the control of oil.
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The Caspian Sea, vital to Eurasia’s economy and environment, is shrinking at an alarming rate. The declining water level in the sea is one visible consequence of a larger regional water crisis faced by the C5 nations of Central Asia—Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, and Uzbekistan. This water crisis threatens the more than 82 million people who call the largely arid region home.
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The U.S. Treasury has announced sanctions against Russia’s Gazprombank, a lending institution inexorably linked with Russia’s state-owned gas giant Gazprom, along with fifty other small and medium-sized banks and forty securities registrars. Treasury’s Office of Foreign Assets Control (OFAC) also issued a warning of sanctions risks for financial institutions joining Russia’s System for Transfer of Financial Messages, which Moscow stood up in an attempt to work around having been excluded from the Society for Worldwide Interbank Financial Communication (SWIFT), the main global network to wire funds.
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Clean energy shares in the United States experienced a significant decline following Donald Trump’s election to a second term. The WilderHill Clean Energy Index fell by 6.7%, with solar companies like Sunnova Energy International Inc. and Sunrun Inc. dropping as much as 51% and 29%, respectively. The timing of this downturn is unfortunate, as green stocks plummeted while the flagship United Nations Conference on Climate Change, COP29, convened in Baku on November 11. Although it is currently unclear which Biden-era environmental initiatives Trump intends to eliminate and how those included in the Inflation Reduction Act will be affected, green technology firms are bracing for impact.
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