Russia’s New Scramble for Africa

07-02-2009

The Kremlin has launched an ambitious project to restore Moscow’s past glory on the African continent. Policy makers in the U.S. and Europe need to understand that it’s happening -- and formulate an effective response -- before they find their own relationships with Africa changing in significant and problematic ways.

Russian President Dmitry Medvedev and more than a hundred Russian businessmen last week visited Egypt, Nigeria, Namibia and Angola on the longest tour of Africa a Russian leader has undertaken since the collapse of the Soviet Union. Unlike President Obama, who is going to Africa next week for a brief stop to talk about global warming, Mr. Medvedev and his team targeted oil, gas, diamonds and uranium. Mr. Medvedev is trying to score points before his G-8 meeting with Western leaders in Italy July 8-10.

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The Triumph of the Petro-state

06-19-2009

This year’s St Petersburg Economic Forum provided the backdrop for a deep division in the Russian leadership between those who, whether for pragmatic or ideological reasons, want integration with the West, and those who want to continue Russia’s trajectory as a petro-state. Unfortunately, the latter seem to be winning.

Clearly, the vice premier and chairman of Rosneft, Igor Sechin, Putin’s overseer of the energy sector, isn’t among the champions of US-Russian relations. His speech stole President Dmitry Medvedev’s thunder, causing some to speculate whether Putin deliberately sent Sechin to upstage the Russian president. Moreover, Putin himself did not deign to show up in the forum, preferring instead to berate the once richest man in Russia and uber-oligarch, Oleg Deripaska, on national TV. This makes for much better national politics and brings more popularity than any wonky speech at the Forum.

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Russian Paradox Forum

06-17-2009

Cold and rainy days at the St. Petersburg Economic Forum earlier this month followed each other like waves on the Baltic Sea. The economic forecasts pushed by Russian leaders, foreign dignitaries and gurus were just as bleak.

Russians believe this is a “W”-shaped recession, and, as President Dmitry Medvedev said, “It is too early to uncork the Champagne.” Yet the forum also highlighted a deepening rift between the approaches and the rhetoric of the Russian leadership.

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Russia’s Commodities Strategy

06-09-2009

The economic glitterati have descended on Russia’s "second capital." President Dmitry Medvedev, vice premiers and ministers, CEOs of Intel, Nissan, Coca-Cola and other Forbes 500 companies, and oligarchs are rubbing shoulders with superstar pundits such as Thomas L. Friedman and Nuriel Rubini. All have flocked to the St. Petersburg International Economic Forum.

Russians are all smiles after the purchase of 2 percent of Facebook, and state-owned Sberbank’s participation in acquisition of the General Motors Corp.’s German subsidiary Opel. The public discourse is all about diversification, innovation and coping with the global crisis. Mr. Medvedev says he wants innovation-based growth. But privately, many sotto voce discussions turn to the question: What is Russia’s global strategy?

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Russia’s Real Strategy Evident "near abroad"

06-09-2009

The economic and political megastars have descended on Russia’s "second capital" the 13th St Petersburg International Economic Forum. Here were Russian President Dmitry Medvedev; the presidents of Armenia and Azerbaijan locked in their eternal peace process; Russian vice premiers Igor Shuvalov and Igor Sechin (aka "the two Igor Ivanoviches"); and even the enigmatic former PM Victor Zubkov, who chaired a special grain congress.

Here also were ministers, the CEOs of Intel, Nissan, Coca Cola and other Forbes 50 companies, and oligarchs rubbing shoulders over canapés and mojitos in the Egyptian hall of the exquisite Hermitage museum with super-star pundits such as Thomas Friedman and economist Nouriel Roubini.

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