ARTICLES
The Manas Base and Challenges to the U.S. Presence in Kyrgyzstan
07-27-2010Countering Turkey’s Strategic Drift
07-26-2010A Hard Look at the Obama-Medvedev Summit
06-23-2010Congressmen Talk Turkey
06-21-2010What’s at Stake in Kyrgyzstan?
04-14-2010The Obama administration has been caught flat-footed once again—this time in Kyrgyzstan. The administration didn’t anticipate the spring riots escalating and sweeping away corrupt President Kurmanbek Bakiyev and his clan. The U.S. was perceived as being too close to Mr Bakiyev, yet it did not move fast enough to distance itself from him and recognize the temporary government led by Roza Otunbayeva.
While Ms. Otunbayeva—who has served as Kyrgyzstan’s foreign minister three times, as well as its ambassador to Washington and London—is a moderate, she is also close to Moscow. Once in office, she immediately sent her deputy to meetings in the Kremlin. One likely topic at those talks was the future of America’s Manas base—no small annoyance to Russia, which also has a military outpost in Kyrgyzstan.
Full textAfter Ukraine Elections: What Is Next for U.S. Policy?
02-12-2010On February 7, Ukrainians elected former Prime Minister Victor Yanukovych as president, a defeat for current Prime Minister Yulia Tymoshenko. The first round of elections, held on January 17, appeared to be free and fair. The U.S. embassy and OSCE concluded that the second round of runoff elections were free and fair as well. Ukrainian courts may review some of Tymoshenko’s vote-counting-related challenges, but according to Ukrainian experts, these claims are unlikely to change the outcome of the election.
Despite Yanukovych’s promises to improve ties with Moscow, the U.S. should develop its relations with the newly elected Ukrainian administration. The U.S. should also support the territorial integrity and sovereignty of Ukraine in the face of potential future Russian provocations, such as in the Crimea. It should also support NATO-Ukraine Commission efforts to develop relations with Kyiv, while encouraging key European states (Germany, France, and Italy) to accelerate Ukraine’s EU accession process.
Full textWhat Russia needs Most: Civil Society Engagement, Not Appeasement
02-12-2010Biden Should Treat Poland with Respect
10-21-2009A Policy Agenda for the U.S.-Russia Congressional Caucus
10-01-2009Unrequited Concessions In Chess Is Bad Policy
09-14-2009MOSCOW - In meetings with Prime Minister Vladimir Putin, Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov and the leading Russian foreign policy experts one thing becomes blatantly clear: the Obama Administration did not receive any quid-pro-quo for significant concessions it provided to Russia as a part of its “reset button” policy.
Since January of this year, the Obama Administration has resumed the START strategic arms talks, and is trying to complete them before the current nuclear weapons agreement expires on December 9th.
It looks like it will abandon ballistic missile deployment against Iran in Poland the Czech Republic, and adopt an inferior system instead. The Administration also signaled that it will listen to Russian ideas about reshaping European security architecture and at least for now it will not seriously push for Georgia and Ukraine to join NATO.
Full textAuthoritarian Arms
08-20-2009President Hugo Chavez recently announced that Venezuela will purchase dozens of Russian tanks and other arms, signaling growing military ties between the two countries -- and trouble ahead in the hemisphere.
The deal comes amid tensions with Colombia as Mr. Chavez continues to support the narco-terrorism of the Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia (FARC) and as he campaigns against the United States using Colombian facilities for anti-drug efforts in the Andes.
Full textA Warning From Good Friends
07-22-2009The Obama administration has managed to open a wide gap between itself and some of
The authors of the Open Letter, who are among
The Russian Handicap to U.S. Iran Policy
04-22-2009There are voices in the Obama Administration who believe that the Kremlin is able and willing to exert pressure on Iran to prevent it from acquiring nuclear weapons. However, perceived geopolitical and economic benefits in the unstable Persian Gulf, in which American influence is on the wane, outweigh Russia’s concerns about a nuclear-armed Iran. The Kremlin sees Iran not as a threat but as a partner or an ad-hoc ally to challenge U.S. influence.
Full textTurkey’s Dangerous Shift
04-10-2009After attending three summits - of the Group of 20 richest countries, NATO and the European Union - President Obama ended his European trip in
In his speeches, Mr. Obama emphasized that
Russia and Eurasia: A Realistic Policy Agenda for the Obama Administration
03-27-2009The Russian and Eurasian Policy Project was inaugurated to assist policymakers in the legislative and executive branches who will formulate
The international security challenges confronting the Obama Administration are vast. In the coming years, President Barack Obama will need to deal with the troop redeployment from
The Oil-Price Roller Coaster : Global Challenges for The Obama Administration
12-18-2008The global financial crisis has caused a massive slide in energy prices, down to $40-$50 a barrel of NYMEX light sweet crude from the July 2008 highs of $147. While oil prices, along with other commodities, are expected to continue their fall in the short term, over the medium to long term, economic recovery is likely to generate growth in demand, and oil prices are expected to recover as energy markets tighten.
Moreover, lower oil prices are likely to impede the massive investment needed to meet rising demand by 2030, delay introduction of energy-saving technologies, and make alternative fuels less competitive. The tight credit environment will also make it more difficult for energy firms to obtain the necessary funding for financing the capital-intensive growth in production capacity, especially necessary for expensive and difficult offshore production, exploration and development, and heavy oil, oil sands, or oil shale production.
Full textOPEC Redux: Responding to the Russian-Iranian Gas Cartel
10-28-2008Steadily and stealthily, a natural gas cartel has emerged over the last seven years. On October 21 in
The Real World: Iran and US Elections
06-06-2008Iran is emerging as a key issue in the U.S. 2008 presidential campaign. In his speech to the pro-Israel American Israel Public Affairs Committee – AIPAC – Democratic Sen. Barack Obama pushed all the right buttons, from keeping Jerusalem united as the capital of Israel, to calling for resurrection of the Jewish-African-American coalition from the 1960s.
Yet, Obama did not budge from his diplomatic strategy on dealing with the Iranian nuclear threat. He confirmed that he will sit down with the ayatollahs despite the fact that every diplomatic effort to stop the Iranian nuclear program has failed so far.
Full textThe Real World: Beirut a Blow to Bush
05-16-2008As U.S. President George W. Bush travels to the Middle East, Lebanon’s survival as a multi-ethnic, multi-denominational state is at stake. Hezbollah, the Lebanese Shiite movement’s "made in Iran," army demonstrated its force by occupying the capital, Beirut.
Fierce fighting is reported in Tripoli in the north of the country and in the mountain districts of the Chouf and Aley east of Beirut. More than 80 people have been killed and 128 wounded in fierce fire fights. Iran and Syria are quickly changing the balance of power in the eastern Mediterranean, while the West and moderate Arab states appear almost paralyzed.
Full textThe West Should Unite in Support of Georgia
04-30-2008In the last few days,
The Real World: The US-Turkey Kurdish Dilema
02-28-2008
U.S. Secretary of Defense Robert Gates was in Ankara this week asking his Turkish counterparts to limit the scope and length of their operation against the Kurdish rebels in Iraq. U.S. decision makers are worried that continued violence in Iraqi Kurdistan could destabilize the region and spill over into the other Kurdish-populated areas of the Middle East.
Turkey’s leaders, including Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan, Defense Minister Vecdi Gonul and chief of staff of the Turkish military, Gen. Yasar Buyukanit, have not committed to a withdrawal date. In the meantime, Operation Gunes, aimed at destroying the Kurdish Workers’ Party – the PKK, who are viewed by Ankara as a terrorist outfit – in northern Iraq, is continuing in difficult mountainous terrain and amid winter storms.
Full textCentral Asia: A Major Worry for US Intelligence Agencies
02-28-2008Central Asia is a major area of concern for US intelligence agencies, according to an annual threat assessment presented recently by Director of National Intelligence Michael McConnell.
McConnell discussed the Annual Threat Assessment -- a document representing the consensus view of 16 US intelligence agencies that covers all global security threats facing Washington -- with US senators on February 5. While Iraq remains an enduring source of concern, the reviving Islamic radical/terrorist threat in Afghanistan and in the tribal areas of Pakistan topped the list of security worries.
While the Threat Assessment is sober-minded on many points, it avoids one obvious conclusion involving Russia’s strategic intentions; by re-emphasizing military and economic power, and challenging the West, Moscow, aided and abetted by Teheran, is seeking to change the post-Communist balance of power in Europe, the Middle East, and in the world at large, and is challenging American post-Cold War hegemony. Whether it will succeed or not is a different question. It’s also up in the air whether American policy makers sufficiently comprehend the Kremlin’s capabilities and intentions, and, if they do, whether they can muster the political will that can help frustrate Russian plans.
Full textThe Real World: US Intel Russia, Iran
02-16-2008What does the U.S. intelligence community really know about the Russian-Iranian axis? On Feb. 5, John Michael McConnell, Director of National Intelligence presented his Annual Threat Assessment to the U.S. Senate Committee on Intelligence, which provided some insights.
The Real World: Great Powers, Limp Sanctions
01-25-2008A mountain of diplomacy has given birth to a molehill of sanctions.
After months of negotiations, the troika (U.S., China and Russia), as well as the EU-3, (the United Kingdom, France, and Germany) approved a draft UN Security Council resolution which will fail to introduce new significant sanctions against Iran over its uranium enrichment program.
According to Russian foreign ministry sources, the U.S. will join with other members of the diplomatic sextet to negotiate directly with Teheran – a win for President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad and other hardliners on the eve of important Iranian parliamentary elections scheduled for March.
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The Real World: Bush’s Middle East Tour
01-11-2008The Iranian National Intelligence Estimate: Winners and Losers
12-07-2007Not since the Team A – Team B debate over the Soviet threat of the 1970s has an intelligence estimate played such a major role in US foreign policy. Released earlier this week, the Iran National Intelligence Estimate (NIE) bottom line is this: whether or not Iran took a breather in doomsday weapons development in 2003, the US intelligence community is not sure whether these activities have been restarted. Those who spin this into a claim that “Iran does not have a nuclear weapons program today” are utterly misleading – deliberately or otherwise.
Full textAfter Annapolis
12-01-2007Unfortunately, with the necessary preparations on the part of the Palestinians and the Arab states for true peace nowhere in evidence, this latest iteration of the "peace process" is even less likely to succeed than its Camp David II predecessor was.
State of the Union 2007: Recognizing the Threat of Strategic Oil Dependency
01-24-2007In the State of the Union address, President Bush called a spade a shovel. Building on his earlier statement that America is “addicted to oil”, he said:
For too long, our Nation has been dependent on oil. America’s dependence leaves more vulnerable to hostile regimes and to terrorists, who could cause huge disruptions of oil shipments, raise the price of oil, and do great harm to our economy.
The President called on Congress to double the capacity of the strategic petroleum reserve and for America to provide global leadership to encourage our friends and allies to consider policies to enhance their energy security. To improve the global energy balance, America’s friends and allies should increase their production of oil, natural gas, and substitute fuels; diversify their supplies as much as possible away from unstable regions; make fuel consumption more efficient through technological innovation; and increase their Strategic Petroleum Reserves (SPRs).
Full textU.S. Strategy in the Black Sea Region
12-13-2006U.S. interests in the Black Sea area—energy transit, security, counterterrorism, proliferation of weapons of mass destruction (WMD), and the traffic in drugs, weapons, and people—have taken on particular significance since 9/11. The Black Sea basin is a strategic region bordering the Greater Middle East and a key transit route for Caspian oil. The U.S. needs a comprehensive regional policy to protect American interests and security.
The Black Sea Nexus. The Black Sea region is a patchwork of overlapping civilizations and spheres of influence.....
Full textThe U.S. Challenge at the Shanghai Summit
06-13-2006On June 15 members of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) will gather for their annual meeting at the birthplace of this Eurasian bloc—Shanghai. Since its modest economic beginnings in 2001, when it facilitated China’s return into its Central Asian backyard for the first time in almost 1,000 years, the SCO has become a Eurasian powerhouse with an increasingly strong military component. The United States should watch for anti-American developments at the SCO while exploring ways to establish a dialogue with it.
Full textReducing U.S. Dependence on Middle Eastern Oil
05-07-2006The United States is the largest oil importer in the world, bringing in 13.5 million barrels per day (mbd), which accounts for 63.5 percent of total U.S. daily consumption (20.6 mbd). [1] Oil from the Middle East (specifically, the Persian Gulf) accounts for 17 percent of U.S. oil imports, and this dependence is growing.
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The Obama administration has been caught flat-footed once again—this time in Kyrgyzstan. The administration didn’t anticipate the spring riots escalating and sweeping away corrupt President Kurmanbek Bakiyev and his clan. The U.S. was perceived as being too close to Mr Bakiyev, yet it did not move fast enough to distance itself from him and recognize the temporary government led by Roza Otunbayeva.
While Ms. Otunbayeva—who has served as Kyrgyzstan’s foreign minister three times, as well as its ambassador to Washington and London—is a moderate, she is also close to Moscow. Once in office, she immediately sent her deputy to meetings in the Kremlin. One likely topic at those talks was the future of America’s Manas base—no small annoyance to Russia, which also has a military outpost in Kyrgyzstan.
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