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Dangerous Trajectories: Obama’s Approach to Arms Control Misreads Russian Nuclear Strategy

11-09-2009
Russia still considers the United States its "principal adversary." Moscow relies on its nuclear weapons to compensate for its inferiority in conventional power relative to the U.S., NATO, and China. Russian political and military leaders are still captives of czarist and Soviet geopolitical thinking and military traditions. U.S. policymakers need to understand this background and Russia’s Soviet-style negotiating tactics when negotiating realistic and verifiable arms control agreements with Russia. The Obama Administration’s wishful thinking and unilateral concessions will not produce a better nuclear treaty.
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Are Russian Scientists Aiding Iran’s Nuclear Program?

10-08-2009

Last weekend, Israel leaked to the Sunday Times of London that Russian scientists are developing nuclear warheads for Iran. According to the leakers, that’s why Israeli prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu flew to Moscow for a “secret” visit September 7.

 

If true, this information may accelerate sanctions against Iran, or even precipitate military action to destroy the Iranian nuclear-weapons program. It may also blow President Obama’s Russia “reset” policy to smithereens.

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Is civilian control of Russia’s nuclear arsenal at risk?

12-12-2008

WASHINGTON, Dec. 12 (UPI) -- Russian generals have long felt they should be the ones to set military policy. They have trouble accepting civilian authority -- be it from President Dmitry Medvedev or Defense Minister Anatoly Serdyukov. They derisively describe the minister as a former furniture salesman and tax man, yet Serdyukov knows where the brass keep their money.

Russian Prime Minister and former President Vladimir Putin, a former intelligence officer and Russia’s "national leader," may be a different story because of his dominating personality and popularity. Yet Soviet-era military retirees already have challenged him directly.

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The Real World: Putin in Libya

04-18-2008

Russian President Vladimir Putin began a two-day visit to Libya on April 16, the first by a Russian president to the formerly shunned country. The event was hailed by Libya’s veteran leader Moammar Gadhafi as "historic, strategic and very important." Gadhafi further stated "…given that we are both producers of gas and oil, we will work together to defend our interests."

 

Energy deals and proposals featured prominently during Putin’s visit. Libya is believed to hold the largest oil reserves in Africa, having also the fourth largest reserves of natural gas.

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The Real World: The Danger of Iran’s Space Launch

02-08-2008

On Feb. 5, just a few days before the 29th anniversary of the Iranian Revolution, President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad ordered the launch of a ballistic rocket described as a "space launch vehicle," or SLV. The single-stage rocket, called the Explorer-1, was launched from a new and secret space center in northern Iran that was inaugurated that day.

Ahmadinejad did the countdown, and the group present shouted, "Allahu Akbar" – God is great. The Iranian authorities claim that the launch of the rocket was a test for a future launch of the first Iran-built satellite, the Omid (Hope). Iran’s news agency reported that the launch of the satellite would take place by March 2009, when the next Iranian year will end. Mostafa Muhammad Najjar the Iranian defense minister, announced that the Omid satellite may be launched by May or June of this year. Iran’s first satellite, the Sinah-1, was built and launched in Russia, in October 2005.

Beyond that, only deployment of missile defense systems in the Middle East and Europe, and Iran’s fear of nuclear retaliation, may prevent Tehran from imposing the experiences of the Mutually Assured Destruction policies with which the Cold War generations grew up in the East and the West.
 

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