Russian Paradox Forum

06-17-2009

Cold and rainy days at the St. Petersburg Economic Forum earlier this month followed each other like waves on the Baltic Sea. The economic forecasts pushed by Russian leaders, foreign dignitaries and gurus were just as bleak.

Russians believe this is a “W”-shaped recession, and, as President Dmitry Medvedev said, “It is too early to uncork the Champagne.” Yet the forum also highlighted a deepening rift between the approaches and the rhetoric of the Russian leadership.

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Russia’s Commodities Strategy

06-09-2009

The economic glitterati have descended on Russia’s "second capital." President Dmitry Medvedev, vice premiers and ministers, CEOs of Intel, Nissan, Coca-Cola and other Forbes 500 companies, and oligarchs are rubbing shoulders with superstar pundits such as Thomas L. Friedman and Nuriel Rubini. All have flocked to the St. Petersburg International Economic Forum.

Russians are all smiles after the purchase of 2 percent of Facebook, and state-owned Sberbank’s participation in acquisition of the General Motors Corp.’s German subsidiary Opel. The public discourse is all about diversification, innovation and coping with the global crisis. Mr. Medvedev says he wants innovation-based growth. But privately, many sotto voce discussions turn to the question: What is Russia’s global strategy?

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Russia’s Real Strategy Evident "near abroad"

06-09-2009

The economic and political megastars have descended on Russia’s "second capital" the 13th St Petersburg International Economic Forum. Here were Russian President Dmitry Medvedev; the presidents of Armenia and Azerbaijan locked in their eternal peace process; Russian vice premiers Igor Shuvalov and Igor Sechin (aka "the two Igor Ivanoviches"); and even the enigmatic former PM Victor Zubkov, who chaired a special grain congress.

Here also were ministers, the CEOs of Intel, Nissan, Coca Cola and other Forbes 50 companies, and oligarchs rubbing shoulders over canapés and mojitos in the Egyptian hall of the exquisite Hermitage museum with super-star pundits such as Thomas Friedman and economist Nouriel Roubini.

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Valdai Club Highlights Russia’s Modernization Dilemma

09-15-2008

The fifth annual Valdai Club meeting took place against the backdrop of the conflict in the Caucasus and Russia’s recognition of the secessionist republics Abkhazia and South Ossetia. The Valdai Club, of which this author is a member, brings together policy experts and journalists from Russia and the world for discussions with the Russian leadership.

Five days of meetings with Prime Minister Vladimir Putin, President Dmitry Medvedev, Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov, and First Deputy Prime Minister Igor Shuvalov, among others, indicate that the Russian leadership finds itself on the horns of a dilemma: its ambitious and confrontational foreign policy clashes with its declared domestic modernizing priorities.

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