ARTICLES
Congressmen Talk Turkey
06-21-2010Look Who’s Talking Exclusive: Middle East and Terrorism Experts Comment on the Situation in Yemen
01-11-2010Excerpt from a blog By Marianna Gurtovnik
I have asked recognized experts on Middle East and terrorism to comment on the current situation in Yemen, which I covered last week, and to share their views regarding the U.S. policy in that country and the nations surrounding it.
Full textIsrael Shopping Issue of Iran Among World Powers
12-05-2009Obama Puts Israel at Risk
05-13-2009The May 18 meeting between President Obama and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is critical for both nations. US-Israeli relations are in danger of deteriorating to the lowest point since Dwight Eisenhower ordered Israeli troops to evacuate Sinai in 1956 – an event that contributed to the 1967 Six-Day War. The summit may define relations between these two democracies for the duration of the Obama administration and beyond.
The White House seems to be intentionally slighting
Turkey’s Dangerous Shift
04-10-2009After attending three summits - of the Group of 20 richest countries, NATO and the European Union - President Obama ended his European trip in
In his speeches, Mr. Obama emphasized that
What does Iran’s new satellite-launching capability mean?
04-08-2009According to the Iranian Space Agency, the Safir-2 weighs 26 tons, is 22 meters long, 1.25 meters in diameter and can carry a satellite 155 miles into space. Documentation for this can be found at armscontrolwonk.com/file_download/153/Wright_Safir_Analysis_February_11.pdf.
Full textIran’s ICBM program presents real threat to U.S. in near future
04-03-2009The Islamic Republic of Iran produces several short-range rockets domestically, including the Shahab-1 and the Shahab-2. They are spin-offs respectively of the Soviet-built Scud-B and Scud-C. It also produces a 1,300 kilometer-range -- 780 miles -- single-stage liquid-fueled ballistic missile Shahab-3 that is a spin-off of North Korea’s relatively reliable No-dong intermediate-range ballistic missile. Details of these systems can be found at nti.org/e_research/profiles/Iran/index.html.
Iran’s ICBM program presents real threat to U.S. in near future
04-03-2009The Islamic Republic of Iran produces several short-range rockets domestically, including the Shahab-1 and the Shahab-2. They are spin-offs respectively of the Soviet-built Scud-B and Scud-C. It also produces a 1,300 kilometer-range -- 780 miles -- single-stage liquid-fueled ballistic missile Shahab-3 that is a spin-off of North Korea’s relatively reliable No-dong intermediate-range ballistic missile. (Details of these systems can be found at nti.org/e_research/profiles/Iran/index.html.)
The Real World: Gaza’s Five Rings of Fire
01-19-2009To understand the
Let’s start with a little historical perspective. Hamas is an off-shoot of the Egyptian Muslim Brotherhood and a proponent of a Sharia state. It has engaged in war crimes and crimes against humanity targeting Israeli civilians for over a decade. It started blowing up buses in Tel Aviv amid the
Turkey’s Foreign Policy Plans in 2009
01-09-2009In 2009, expect to see a more active
It’s planning to boost its foreign policy involvement in the
It’s also looking to modernize, which helps explain, for example, its aspirations for European Union membership -- always an uphill struggle. Even if the process goes slowly, many among
The Real World: ’Tsipi, King of Israel’
10-31-2008It is an Israeli thing. When a politician, say Ehud Barak, running for the office of prime minister appears at a public event, the crowd will often chant, "Ehud, King of Israel." It is a takeoff on the traditional song, "David, King of Israel," sung on Jewish holidays and celebrations.
This innocuous habit is at least 40 years old. Supporters have sung "Arik [Sharon], King of Israel," or "Yitzhak [Rabin], King of Israel" at past rallies and bar mitzvahs.
Full textCohen: Middle East Going MAD?
07-30-2008The Real World: Sand is Running Out of Israel-Iran Clock
07-25-2008In March 2009, Russia will deploy modern S-300 long-range anti-aircraft missiles in Iran. By June 2009 they will become fully operational, as Iranian teams finish training provided by their Russian instructors, a high-level Russian source who requested anonymity told the Middle East Times.
According to multiple sources, Iran is likely to produce a nuclear bomb soon, and, given the blood curdling rhetoric of its President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, may use it against Israel.
Full textThe Real World: Iran and US Elections
06-06-2008Iran is emerging as a key issue in the U.S. 2008 presidential campaign. In his speech to the pro-Israel American Israel Public Affairs Committee – AIPAC – Democratic Sen. Barack Obama pushed all the right buttons, from keeping Jerusalem united as the capital of Israel, to calling for resurrection of the Jewish-African-American coalition from the 1960s.
Yet, Obama did not budge from his diplomatic strategy on dealing with the Iranian nuclear threat. He confirmed that he will sit down with the ayatollahs despite the fact that every diplomatic effort to stop the Iranian nuclear program has failed so far.
Full textThe Real World: Beirut a Blow to Bush
05-16-2008As U.S. President George W. Bush travels to the Middle East, Lebanon’s survival as a multi-ethnic, multi-denominational state is at stake. Hezbollah, the Lebanese Shiite movement’s "made in Iran," army demonstrated its force by occupying the capital, Beirut.
Fierce fighting is reported in Tripoli in the north of the country and in the mountain districts of the Chouf and Aley east of Beirut. More than 80 people have been killed and 128 wounded in fierce fire fights. Iran and Syria are quickly changing the balance of power in the eastern Mediterranean, while the West and moderate Arab states appear almost paralyzed.
Full textThe Real World: Israel at 60
05-09-2008The 21st century will not be an easy one for
Yet, the enduring faith that prompts Jews to pray facing
Turkey’s Constitutional Dilema
05-01-2008This year the Turkish Constitutional Court will hear a crucial petition aimed at banning the ruling Justice and Development Party (AKP), including its leader, Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan, President Abdullah Gul, and 70 more AKP politicians. This will be the fifth petition in the history of the court to prohibit political parties. It granted four in the past.
The flashpoint for this petition, filed by state prosecutor Abdel Rahman Yalcinkaya is the hijab (head covering worn by women from traditional or conservative Islamic backgrounds). The secular Turkish republic, founded by Mustafa Kemal Atatürk in the 1920s outlawed the hijab, which was seen as a symbol of women’s oppression, from schools and other public spaces.
Full textThe Real World: Putin in Libya
04-18-2008Russian President Vladimir Putin began a two-day visit to Libya on April 16, the first by a Russian president to the formerly shunned country. The event was hailed by Libya’s veteran leader Moammar Gadhafi as "historic, strategic and very important." Gadhafi further stated "…given that we are both producers of gas and oil, we will work together to defend our interests."
Energy deals and proposals featured prominently during Putin’s visit. Libya is believed to hold the largest oil reserves in Africa, having also the fourth largest reserves of natural gas.
Full textThe Real World: Iran - North Korea with Oil?
04-11-2008Amidst chilling rhetoric reminiscent of Europe of the 1930s, President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad has promised to give the West a “bloody nose” and “smash it on the mouth.” The threats came as Ahmadinejad announced that an additional 6,000 centrifuges will be deployed in clusters called “cascades” in the nuclear research city of Natanz. These will be in addition to the existing 3,000 Pakistan-designed centrifuges already there.
Full textThe Real World: NATO and the Middle East
04-04-2008The Bucharest summit tells a cautionary tale to the Middle East countries and Afghanistan. The bottom line is: while there are severe limits to American and European power, largely for internal reasons, it is imprudent to write off European countries and the U.S. as global powers.
?ne of the key squabbling points before and during Bucharest was the number of troops and equipment to be contributed to Afghanistan. Last fall, Canada warned that it will pull out of the NATO force there if the allies don’t contribute adequately and allow their troops to fight in the south of the country.
Full textThe Real World: Iran’s Managed Democracy
03-21-2008Iranian voters – 44 million of them – cast their ballots on March 14, in the country’s eighth parliamentary election since the Islamic Revolution of 1979. Surprisingly, many in the media and in the "chattering classes" still view Iran as a democracy, albeit of an "Islamic" type.
In reality, Iran has a political process about as "democratic" as the Soviet Union used to have, or as communist regimes around the world, from Cuba to North Korea still maintain. Certainly, politics are involved, in the sense of struggles for power between factions and individuals. However, Iran’s latest round of elections was hardly democratic by any stretch of the imagination.
Velayat-e-Faghih, the rule of the cleric, has outlived its natural life span. Even if the next U.S. administration deals with Tehran with its nuclear program and support of terrorism, it should clearly recognize the regime for what it is: a dictatorship, not a democracy. In the Iranian future, there is an open ballot box, and the last vote of the Iranian people has yet to be cast. The longer Iran’s path to democracy is, the higher price its people will pay in the end.
Full textThe Real World: Hamas, Qassams & Conflict
03-14-2008An incessant and intensifying barrage of Qassam and Katyusha rockets recently forced
Quadrupling the number of Israelis in danger of rocket fire may also place a stark choice before Prime Minister Ehud Olmert and his center-left coalition: stay under fire and look even weaker than before, or launch a massive land operation into
The Real World: The US-Turkey Kurdish Dilema
02-28-2008
U.S. Secretary of Defense Robert Gates was in Ankara this week asking his Turkish counterparts to limit the scope and length of their operation against the Kurdish rebels in Iraq. U.S. decision makers are worried that continued violence in Iraqi Kurdistan could destabilize the region and spill over into the other Kurdish-populated areas of the Middle East.
Turkey’s leaders, including Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan, Defense Minister Vecdi Gonul and chief of staff of the Turkish military, Gen. Yasar Buyukanit, have not committed to a withdrawal date. In the meantime, Operation Gunes, aimed at destroying the Kurdish Workers’ Party – the PKK, who are viewed by Ankara as a terrorist outfit – in northern Iraq, is continuing in difficult mountainous terrain and amid winter storms.
Full textThe Real World: US Intel Russia, Iran
02-16-2008What does the U.S. intelligence community really know about the Russian-Iranian axis? On Feb. 5, John Michael McConnell, Director of National Intelligence presented his Annual Threat Assessment to the U.S. Senate Committee on Intelligence, which provided some insights.
The Real World: The Danger of Iran’s Space Launch
02-08-2008On Feb. 5, just a few days before the 29th anniversary of the Iranian Revolution, President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad ordered the launch of a ballistic rocket described as a "space launch vehicle," or SLV. The single-stage rocket, called the Explorer-1, was launched from a new and secret space center in northern Iran that was inaugurated that day.
Ahmadinejad did the countdown, and the group present shouted, "Allahu Akbar" – God is great. The Iranian authorities claim that the launch of the rocket was a test for a future launch of the first Iran-built satellite, the Omid (Hope). Iran’s news agency reported that the launch of the satellite would take place by March 2009, when the next Iranian year will end. Mostafa Muhammad Najjar the Iranian defense minister, announced that the Omid satellite may be launched by May or June of this year. Iran’s first satellite, the Sinah-1, was built and launched in Russia, in October 2005.
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The Real World: Olmert’s Reprieve
02-01-2008Full text
The Real World: Great Powers, Limp Sanctions
01-25-2008A mountain of diplomacy has given birth to a molehill of sanctions.
After months of negotiations, the troika (U.S., China and Russia), as well as the EU-3, (the United Kingdom, France, and Germany) approved a draft UN Security Council resolution which will fail to introduce new significant sanctions against Iran over its uranium enrichment program.
According to Russian foreign ministry sources, the U.S. will join with other members of the diplomatic sextet to negotiate directly with Teheran – a win for President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad and other hardliners on the eve of important Iranian parliamentary elections scheduled for March.
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The Real World: Lieberman Exits Stage Right. Is Olmert Next?
01-17-2008The Real World: Bush’s Middle East Tour
01-11-2008Oil at $100
01-06-2008Global Energy Transformation
01-01-2008The world is on the verge of a new world order. China and India’s development will soak up most of the world’s scarce oil, while oil-producing countries are consuming more and more of the black gold, International Energy Agency’s new report says.
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2008: The Year of Weakness and Confusion
01-01-2008The Iranian National Intelligence Estimate: Winners and Losers
12-07-2007Not since the Team A – Team B debate over the Soviet threat of the 1970s has an intelligence estimate played such a major role in US foreign policy. Released earlier this week, the Iran National Intelligence Estimate (NIE) bottom line is this: whether or not Iran took a breather in doomsday weapons development in 2003, the US intelligence community is not sure whether these activities have been restarted. Those who spin this into a claim that “Iran does not have a nuclear weapons program today” are utterly misleading – deliberately or otherwise.
Full textAfter Annapolis
12-01-2007Unfortunately, with the necessary preparations on the part of the Palestinians and the Arab states for true peace nowhere in evidence, this latest iteration of the "peace process" is even less likely to succeed than its Camp David II predecessor was.
The Real World: Torture, Deaths, and the Military
11-30-2007U.S. Should Not Impose a Ceasefire Deadline on Israel
07-20-2006Rising civilian casualties in Lebanon are triggering calls for the U.S. to impose a ceasefire on Israel before Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice travels to the region and the United Nations Security Council takes up the issue. However, Israel is exercising its legitimate right to defend itself after an unprovoked attack by the Hezbollah terrorist organization across an internationally recognized border. That attack resulted in the killing of eight Israeli soldiers and the taking of two hostages, and it has plunged the Middle East into a new war. The United States should resist calls to impose a ceasefire on Israel.
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