ARTICLES
Islamist Terrorists Target Oil Tanker Again
09-09-2010From Russian Competition to Natural Resources Access: Recasting U.S. Arctic Policy
06-15-2010In recent years, Russia has aggressively expanded its presence in the Arctic, while the United States has largely neglected this strategic area. Given the rising demand for oil and gas and the likelihood that Arctic sea-lanes will become more navigable, the U.S. should move resolutely to establish U.S. sovereign rights in the Arctic. Establishing a robust U.S. presence will require, among other steps, significantly increasing the number of U.S. polar-capable icebreakers. The U.S. should continue coordinating efforts with Canada and its other NATO allies, working with Russia when feasible and prudent. However, the U.S. should oppose Russia’s territorial claims in the Arctic without becoming party to the Law of the Sea Treaty.
Full textA Nonstarter on Arms Control
01-09-2010The Obama administration has failed to complete the negotiation of a treaty to replace the Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty (Start), which expired on Dec. 5. The two superpowers are now in unchartered waters.
Moscow and Washington have stated that Start still applies voluntarily. This is false. First, without the consent of the U.S. Senate, expired treaties are null and void. Second, the Russians already kicked out U.S. inspectors, thus scrapping a key provision of the now-dead treaty. Third, on Tuesday, Dec. 29, Prime Minister Vladimir Putin upped the ante, linking U.S. missile defenses with the treaty signature. Speaking in Vladivostok later that week, Mr. Putin warned against U.S. “aggressiveness” and disruption of the nuclear balance in case the Obama administration deploys missile defenses.
Full textBiden Should Treat Poland with Respect
10-21-2009Unrequited Concessions In Chess Is Bad Policy
09-14-2009MOSCOW - In meetings with Prime Minister Vladimir Putin, Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov and the leading Russian foreign policy experts one thing becomes blatantly clear: the Obama Administration did not receive any quid-pro-quo for significant concessions it provided to Russia as a part of its “reset button” policy.
Since January of this year, the Obama Administration has resumed the START strategic arms talks, and is trying to complete them before the current nuclear weapons agreement expires on December 9th.
It looks like it will abandon ballistic missile deployment against Iran in Poland the Czech Republic, and adopt an inferior system instead. The Administration also signaled that it will listen to Russian ideas about reshaping European security architecture and at least for now it will not seriously push for Georgia and Ukraine to join NATO.
Full textAuthoritarian Arms
08-20-2009President Hugo Chavez recently announced that Venezuela will purchase dozens of Russian tanks and other arms, signaling growing military ties between the two countries -- and trouble ahead in the hemisphere.
The deal comes amid tensions with Colombia as Mr. Chavez continues to support the narco-terrorism of the Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia (FARC) and as he campaigns against the United States using Colombian facilities for anti-drug efforts in the Andes.
Full textA Warning From Good Friends
07-22-2009The Obama administration has managed to open a wide gap between itself and some of
The authors of the Open Letter, who are among
Russian Paradox Forum
06-17-2009Cold and rainy days at the St. Petersburg Economic Forum earlier this month followed each other like waves on the
Russians believe this is a “W”-shaped recession, and, as President Dmitry Medvedev said, “It is too early to uncork the
The Russian Handicap to U.S. Iran Policy
04-22-2009There are voices in the Obama Administration who believe that the Kremlin is able and willing to exert pressure on Iran to prevent it from acquiring nuclear weapons. However, perceived geopolitical and economic benefits in the unstable Persian Gulf, in which American influence is on the wane, outweigh Russia’s concerns about a nuclear-armed Iran. The Kremlin sees Iran not as a threat but as a partner or an ad-hoc ally to challenge U.S. influence.
Full textU.S. Air Force has the ordnance to bust Iran’s nuclear bunkers
03-30-2009The Obama administration may need to decide -- and sooner rather than later -- whether to negotiate with, sanction or attack Iran because of its ongoing programs to develop nuclear weapons and the intercontinental ballistic missiles to carry them.
The efforts of the previous Republican administration of President George W. Bush to restrict the Iranian nuclear program failed because of
The Obama–Medvedev G-20 Meeting: The Agenda for the First Encounter
03-27-2009On April 1, President Barack Obama will meet for the first time with Russian President Dmitry Medvedev at the G-20 summit in
This engagement will build on Secretary of State Hillary Clinton’s March 6 infamous "reset button" meeting with Sergei Lavrov, Russia’s foreign minister. It also follows visits to
Don’t push the reset button yet
02-25-2009Vice President Joe Biden suggested at the
The Kremlin is so concerned with expanding its sphere of influence in Eurasia that even today’s severe economic crisis - which has seen the ruble plunge 50 percent against the dollar and the Moscow stock market capitalization drop 80 percent - hasn’t slowed its push into the "near abroad."
Full textAmerica, Russia, and the World: The Grim Reality of 2009
01-15-2009While
The world economy is already in the worst recession since the early 1980s, and the former Cold War rivals—the
Russia Provokes U.S. with Venezuela sea exercises
01-07-2009Provocative? Yes. But
Russia’s Play in Uncle Sam’s Neighborhood
12-18-2008Despite the raging economic crisis and collapse of oil prices,
The Oil-Price Roller Coaster : Global Challenges for The Obama Administration
12-18-2008The global financial crisis has caused a massive slide in energy prices, down to $40-$50 a barrel of NYMEX light sweet crude from the July 2008 highs of $147. While oil prices, along with other commodities, are expected to continue their fall in the short term, over the medium to long term, economic recovery is likely to generate growth in demand, and oil prices are expected to recover as energy markets tighten.
Moreover, lower oil prices are likely to impede the massive investment needed to meet rising demand by 2030, delay introduction of energy-saving technologies, and make alternative fuels less competitive. The tight credit environment will also make it more difficult for energy firms to obtain the necessary funding for financing the capital-intensive growth in production capacity, especially necessary for expensive and difficult offshore production, exploration and development, and heavy oil, oil sands, or oil shale production.
Full textRussia’s generals fight Putin to conserve corruption
12-11-2008The Russian General Staff has classified reform discussions in order to hide broad discontent among the top generals. It’s also a good way to conceal possible poor reform planning and the lack of a clear national security strategy.
Full textRussa deploys ship, aircraft to show force in Arctic
12-01-2008The arctic coasts and continental shelf are estimated to hold large deposits of oil, natural gas, methane hydrate -- natural gas -- clusters, and large quantities of valuable minerals.
Full textEurope Anti-Missile Defense System: Standing Up to Russia’s Threats
11-20-2008The day after Barack Obama won the 2008
Medvedev softened his rhetoric following discussions with French President Nicolas Sarkozy, instead offering to hold off on the missile deployment in exchange for
Sarkozy later revised his statement, admitting that
Russia focuses weapon systems on Arctic wealth
11-06-2008The New Cold War: Reviving The U.S. Presence in the Arctic
10-30-2008The
With the shrinking of the polar ice cap, extended navigation through the
OPEC Redux: Responding to the Russian-Iranian Gas Cartel
10-28-2008Steadily and stealthily, a natural gas cartel has emerged over the last seven years. On October 21 in
The Real World: Israel - No October Surprise
09-26-2008
Will
In a recent poll, many Israelis complained they had no idea how Livni intended to deal with what most perceive as a grave and growing existential threat. She may not know that herself. Unlike her political rivals Defense Minister Ehud Barak and opposition leader Benjamin Netanyahu (Likud), Livni has no military background to speak of.
Full textRussian Forces in the Georgian War: Preliminary Assessment and Recommendations
08-20-2008While all the facts of last week’s Russian-Georgian war are not clear, enough information--including eyewitness accounts--has been reported in the media to draw initial conclusions about the performance of Russian military forces and the implications of these operations for U.S. defense policies. Unquestionably, the war is a reminder that "conventional" military operations as an instrument of modern combat are far from obsolete. The U.S. and its allies must retain a robust conventional capacity to deter aggression and assist in the defense of its treaty obligations to NATO and other allies.
Full textAlexander Solzhenitsyn: The Passing of a Titan
08-05-2008Alexander Solzhenitsyn (1918–2008) was a titan of 20th century Russian literature and politics. He survived the Stalinist purges, World War II, eight years in the Gulag, Communist denunciation, and even a battle with cancer. After spending 18 years exiled in America, he made a triumphant return to his homeland.
Full textPutin’s "Zaibatsu" - The Russian Technology Property Grab
08-01-2008July 2008 will mark a momentous month in the history of Russian business. This is when Sergey Chemezov, a close associate of Prime Minister Vladimir Putin, consolidated control over 426 additional enterprises that are now a part of the Russian Technologies (Rostechnologii) empire. A global, state-owned Russian weapons-and-metals holding has been born. Yet its birth has triggered the fiercest fight among the Russian elite since Dmitry Medvedev was anointed president.
Full textTNK-BP Deputy Chairman Blasts Russia Partners Not State
07-25-2008
Lord George Robertson, deputy chairman of TNK-BP’s board and former secretary-general of Nato, has blasted BP’s Russian partners at a closed-doors luncheon meeting at the Nixon Center in Washington on Thursday, July 25.
The comments took place as news emerged that Robert Dudley, TNK-BP’s British CEO, had been forced to leave Moscow to continue running the company from London due to his Russian visa being denied. Yet doubts remain whether he will be able to effectively run the company from overseas, which is being torn apart by a dispute between the BP and its Russian partners in the 50-50 joint venture. Additionally, the denial of visas by Russia for other key foreign BP personnel will reduce the joint venture efficiency, Robertson claimed. Simultaneously, BP has begun arbitration procedures for alleged violations of the shareholders’ agreement.
The Real World: The Oil Crisis-Desperate Measures
06-20-2008U.S. President George W. Bush and Senator John McCain have called for an expansion of
The biggest roadblock on the way to more U.S.-produced oil is the Democratic majority in the Congress and its fellow travelers. Oil-rich rulers, from King Abdullah I of
The Real World: Oil’s Creative Destruction
06-13-2008Oil demand appears in unexpected places, where there was very little demand in the recent past. The oil thirst is mounting in the Persian Gulf, Russia, even in Africa, due to expanding wealth, booming construction projects, and growing populations. Government fuel subsidies, typical in energy exporting countries, are increasing demand for gasoline. No wonder that the oil prices are going up, up and away.
According to Fatih Birol, chief economist at the International Energy Agency (IEA), the rising demand in the Gulf is second only to that of India and China, and it will increase in the future. Edward Morse, chief energy economist at Lehman Brothers, has stated that at least 1 million barrels a day did not reach world markets last summer because of rising consumption among energy producing nations, and the situation will repeat itself this summer.
Full textThe Shifting Geopolitics of BRIC and Oil
05-30-2008The announcement by Gazprom CEO Alexei Miller that his company is aiming for the largest market capitalization in the world is an unmistakable indicator how the global financial tectonic plates are shifting. Russian and Chinese energy and telecommunication companies are leading the global Fortune 100 list; India’s Tata and Mittal Steel have become true multinationals.
Russia, China and India are playing increasingly important roles as the world’s economic engines and as geopolitical players. And they have the US currency in their crosshairs. Today, Iran, Russia, Venezuela and even a US friend, Kuwait, are dumping the dollar in favor of the euro in energy transactions.
Full textThe Real World: Oil & Shifting Geopolitics
05-30-2008U.S. Secretary of the Treasury Henry (Hank) Paulson is heading to
The global financial tectonic plates are shifting, and we can only hope that the
The Real World: Runaway Oil
05-23-2008Many oil producing countries benefit greatly from the rising oil prices. Oil at $135 a barrel brings them windfall profits and allows social and economic development unlike anything people can remember.
Yet, there is a downside to the skyrocketing oil prices, which hurts the United States, Western Europe, China, Japan, and a slew of developing countries without significant hydrocarbon resources.
Full textOver a Barrel
05-11-2008As you go deeper into debt filling up your tank with $4 gas this weekend, look on the bright side - you’re helping to fund countries that hate you.
From
Trend Capital: Azerbaijan Facing Pressure From the Gas Cartel
05-11-2008Caspian gas producers will come under the increasing pressure from the troika of the founders of the natural gas cartel which has emerged stealthily and steadily over the last seven years. The governments in
The Real World: OPEC, Master of the Universe
03-28-2008Skyrocketing gasoline prices may be pushing the U.S. economy over the edge, but the oil-rich lords of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries oil cartel don’t give a hoot.
Chakib Khelil, OPEC’s president and Algeria’s oil minister, has warned that oil may go to $120 a barrel. Khelil is an optimist – if one or more of the major oil producers, such as Iran or Venezuela, gets embroiled in a conflict or otherwise destabilizes, oil could go up beyond $130 a barrel, experts say.
Full textWinners and Losers
12-10-2007The National Intelligence Estimate (NIE) on Iran is unprecedented in the way it is likely to change U.S. policy toward the Islamic Republic. Repercussions of the report go well beyond the Persian Gulf. They may influence U.S. relations with Russia and Europe and affect American standing in the world.
Full textConfronting Putin’s Push
02-14-2007Ariel Cohen
The cold shower Russian President Vladimir Putin unleashed on the United States at the international security conference in Munich should not have come as a surprise. After all, Mr. Putin himself and a host of other senior spokesmen, including his defense minister and one of the official heirs-apparent Sergey Ivanov and military Chief of Staff Gen. Yuri Baluevsky have said as much in the past.
The list of complaints Mr. Putin heaped against the United States is long. The main beef is that the American "hyperpower" is pursuing its unilateral foreign, defense, cultural and economic policy, disregarding international law and ignoring the U.N. (where Russia has a veto power). French President Jacques Chirac would be proud. However, Russia takes its opposition much further.
Full textState of the Union 2007: Recognizing the Threat of Strategic Oil Dependency
01-24-2007In the State of the Union address, President Bush called a spade a shovel. Building on his earlier statement that America is “addicted to oil”, he said:
For too long, our Nation has been dependent on oil. America’s dependence leaves more vulnerable to hostile regimes and to terrorists, who could cause huge disruptions of oil shipments, raise the price of oil, and do great harm to our economy.
The President called on Congress to double the capacity of the strategic petroleum reserve and for America to provide global leadership to encourage our friends and allies to consider policies to enhance their energy security. To improve the global energy balance, America’s friends and allies should increase their production of oil, natural gas, and substitute fuels; diversify their supplies as much as possible away from unstable regions; make fuel consumption more efficient through technological innovation; and increase their Strategic Petroleum Reserves (SPRs).
Full textThe Bush-Putin Hanoi Summit: Iran, Georgia, Energy, and WTO Protocol on the Agenda
11-17-2006
On November 19, President George Bush and Russian President Vladimir Putin will discuss dominant global security issues—the Middle East, including Iran and Iraq, North Korea, and Georgia—at a summit in Hanoi, Vietnam. ?his meeting will take place alongside the meeting of the Asia Pacific Economic Cooperation Organization (APEC). Both presidents, along with U.S. Trade Representative Susan Schwab and the Russian Economics Minister German Gref, are also expected to preside over the signing ceremony of a bilateral protocol on Russia’s accession to the World Trade Organization (WTO).
Full textU.S. Interests and Central Asia Energy Security
11-15-2006In the past five years, real and present dangers to U.S. national security, especially Islamist terrorism and threats to the energy supply, have affected U.S. policy in Central Asia. The region has great energy potential and is strategically important, but it is land-locked, which complicates U.S. access and involvement there.
Full textThe North European Gas Pipeline Threatens Europe’s Energy Security
10-26-2006Russia is building a strategic new pipeline to Europe that will affect European energy security for years to come. Called the North European Gas Pipeline (NEGP), it will cross the Baltic Sea, directly connecting Russia to Germany, and will bypass the Soviet-era, land-based energy transit infrastructure that traverses several former Soviet Bloc countries, including Ukraine, Belarus, and Poland.
U.S. Policy and the Georgian-Russian Crisis
10-10-2006Amid great power fretting over North Korea’s nuclear test and continuing Iranian truculence against the West, Russia escalated its confrontation with the neighboring Georgia. Moscow is now using Georgia’s arrest of four alleged Russian intelligence officers two weeks ago as a pretext to escalate its conflicts with Tbilisi. This is a dangerous development for the West, and specifically the United States, which could see its influence in the Caucasus region crumble if Russia is successful in forcing Georgia into its sphere of influence. U.S. policy must walk a fine line of encouraging settlement of the current dispute without becoming a liability through over-involvement.
Full textAfter the G-8: The Future Orbit of U.S.–Russian Relations
09-15-2006In recent years, Russia has regained some of its former status, primarily through becoming a global energy and raw materials supplier and boasting a sustained economic growth rate of over 6 percent a year since 2000. Along with its elevated status, Russia has also begun to display some of its former Soviet-era hostility toward the West in general and the United States in particular, which may lead to unnecessary frictions and confrontations in the future. The moderator and the expert panelists assessed what the outcomes of the G-8 summit reveal about U.S.–Russian relations, as well as the future challenges and the opportunities for cooperation between the two countries. Although each speaker had distinct ideas as to the nature of U.S.–Russia relations, all four seemed in agreement that the best option for the U.S. and Russia is a pragmatic and realistic relationship based on the cooperative pursuit of common interests.
Full textCountering Hugo Chávez’s Anti-U.S. Arms Alliance
09-06-2006by Stephen Johnson, Ariel Cohen, Ph.D., and William L. T. Schirano
Venezuelan President Hugo Chávez has embarked on a military buildup, to counter alleged U.S. plans to invade his country, and has recently visited Russia, Iran, China, Syria, and other countries to finalize purchases and lobby for a seat on the U.N. Security Council. Chavez’s aggressive policies could endanger U.S. allies in Latin America and a major source of U.S. oil imports.
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Israel Should Confront the Forces Behind Hezbollah
08-02-2006On July 26, 2006, The Heritage Foundation hosted Patrick Clawson, Aaron Mannes, and Daniel Pipes to discuss the current Israel–Hezbollah conflict. Heritage’s Ariel Cohen chaired the event. The panel analyzed Hezbollah’s national and transnational status, Iran’s involvement in the fighting, and Israel’s strategic challenge in confronting its most powerful Arab enemy. This paper summarizes the panelists’ discussion.
Full textPresident Bush’s Agenda for the G-8 Meeting in St. Petersburg
06-30-2006The G-8 meeting on July 15 and the Bush–Putin summit in St. Petersburg, Russia, may mark the most serious tests of U.S.–Russian and East–West relations since the collapse of the Soviet Union. Mutually amassed grievances have led some in Washington to question whether President George W. Bush should attend and whether Russia should remain in the G-8.
Full textThe U.S. Challenge at the Shanghai Summit
06-13-2006On June 15 members of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) will gather for their annual meeting at the birthplace of this Eurasian bloc—Shanghai. Since its modest economic beginnings in 2001, when it facilitated China’s return into its Central Asian backyard for the first time in almost 1,000 years, the SCO has become a Eurasian powerhouse with an increasingly strong military component. The United States should watch for anti-American developments at the SCO while exploring ways to establish a dialogue with it.
Full textPutin’s Legacy and United Russia’s New Ideology
06-01-2006“The Party has been, and remains, the main organizing and coordinating force capable of leading the people along the path of profound Socialist renewal.…”
— Mikhail Gorbachev
With the fall of the USSR, the Russian post-Soviet elite was demoralized by the collapse of Soviet power and sought a new direction. For a time, ideology took a back seat to market reforms, competition, and repudiation of government control. However, “men of the state” and “men of force”—known in Russian as “derzhavniki” and “siloviki”—have reversed this trend.
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The Real Culprit Behind Price-Gouging: OPEC
05-31-2006by Ariel Cohen and William L T Schirano
With the summer driving season now upon us, no one expects a break in the price of gas at the pump. The realities of supply and demand, however, have not stopped some in Congress from seeking a quick fix to the complex problem of high fuel prices.
Full textReducing U.S. Dependence on Middle Eastern Oil
05-07-2006The United States is the largest oil importer in the world, bringing in 13.5 million barrels per day (mbd), which accounts for 63.5 percent of total U.S. daily consumption (20.6 mbd). [1] Oil from the Middle East (specifically, the Persian Gulf) accounts for 17 percent of U.S. oil imports, and this dependence is growing.
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Kadima’s Victory and U.S. Policy on the Arab-Israeli Conflict
05-03-2006Ehud Olmert’s Kadima (Forward) party won less than one-quarter of the available Knesset seats (29 out of 120) in the Israeli parliamentary elections held March 28. A plurality of voters seems to favor unilateral withdrawal from Judea and Samaria (the West Bank) and left-leaning economic policies. Some allege that the ideology of the Land of Israel—which includes claims on Judea and Samaria, the historic birthplace of the nation of Israel—has been abandoned.
Full textRussian Spying for Saddam Demands a Careful U.S. Response
04-30-2006On March 25, the Pentagon reported that Russia had given Saddam Hussein intelligence about U.S. military plans for the invasion of Iraq back in the spring of 2003. Recently declassified documents suggest that Russia’s ambassador to Iraq at that time, Vladimir Titorenko, provided Hussein with information on the timing of the U.S. attack on Baghdad, U.S. troops, and invasion tactics. Fortunately, some of the information was inaccurate, which ultimately aided U.S. forces. Regardless, this incident demonstrates the need for a critical reassessment of U.S. cooperation with Russia.
Full textPreventing a Russian-Georgian Military Confrontation
04-30-2006The pending appeal of Eduard Kokoity, leader of the secessionist territory of South Ossetia, to the Russian Federation’s Constitutional Court to allow his territory to join Mother Russia could trigger destabilization in the Caucasus, sparking a Russian-Georgian military confrontation and unpredictable consequences for the region and the world. The tasks ahead for Georgia’s leaders are perilous, and they need as much assistance as Washington and other Western allies are able to offer.
Full textFlawed Presidential Elections in Belarus: How the West Should Respond
04-16-2006On March 19, Belarus, the last dictatorship in Europe, will hold presidential elections. These elections occur in an atmosphere of political repression, and in all likelihood, President Aleksander Lukashenko will win an easy victory, thanks to thuggish tactics, a crooked electoral system, and a large slush fund courtesy of Russia. With Belarus’s terrible human rights record and its intimate relations with other rogue regimes, including Iran, Syria, and Saddam Hussein’s Iraq, the West cannot be complacent. The United States and the European Union should take steps to strengthen the Belarusian opposition and prod the Lukashenko regime to change course.
Full textU.S. Should Warn Russia Over Its "Soviet" Middle East Policy
04-06-2006In recent weeks, Russia has distanced itself from positions on the Middle East that it once held in common with the U.S. and the European Union. In February, Russia negotiated with Iran to establish a joint uranium-enrichment venture to supply nuclear reactor fuel to the Islamic Republic. As well, it is selling anti-aircraft missiles to Syria. And on March 3, a high ranking delegation of the Hamas terrorist organization visited Moscow at Russian President Vladimir Putin’s invitation.
Full textNATO’s Frontiers: Eurasia, the Mediterranean, and the Greater Middle East
01-09-2006Seventeen years since the fall of the Berlin Wall is sufficient time to reflect upon the amazing transformation of NATO and its frontiers. From bringing the Central European states back into their European home, whole and free, to extending membership to the former captive nations of Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania, NATO has done very well indeed.
Full textRussia’s Gas Attack on Ukraine: An Uneasy Truce
01-04-2006In a compromise deal struck on January 4, the price that Ukraine pays for Russian gas will rise from $50 to $230 per one thousand cubic meters. This is less of a blow to Ukraine than it seems. The country will switch to Turkmenistan as its principal gas supplier and also purchase gas from Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan for about $95 per thousand cubic meters for five years—about a third of the price that Western Europe pays for gas. Ukraine will still buy Russian gas, but much less than in the past.
Full textIncreasing the Global Transportation Fuel Supply
10-25-2005Despite soaring oil prices, oil and gas producers worldwide have failed to expand either supply or investment levels, falling short of meeting the rapidly growing global demand. The key challenge is ensuring an adequate supply of transportation fuel for cars and airplanes--not electricity, which can be generated from coal and nuclear reactors.
Full textCompetition over Eurasia: Are the U.S. and Russia on a Collision Course?
10-24-2005Russia and the United States continue to bicker over the post-Soviet space. They often remind one of an old married couple who forever exchange accusations but never reach a common ground. Do they need counseling? Are they moving towards divorce? The potential for Russia and the U.S. to pursue a parallel foreign policy in the region--one based on interests, not emotions--is greater than many think. This, however, is often difficult to achieve.
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Sino-Russian Military Maneuvers: A Threat to U.S. Interests in Eurasia
09-30-2005Peace Mission 2005, the unprecedented Sino-Russian joint military exercises held on August 18-25, should raise concerns in Washington. The war games are a logical outcome of the Sino-Russian Treaty of Good Neighborly Friendship and Cooperation, signed in 2001, and the shared worldview and growing economic ties between the two giant powers.
Full textUzbekistan’s Eviction Notice: What Next?
08-18-2005On July 31, Uzbek President Islam Karimov served notice on the Pentagon that the U.S. should vacate the Karshi–Khanabad military base (K-2 in military parlance) within six months. In the post- 9/11 era, this is the first time that a U.S. ally has not only abandoned the battlefield—as Spain did in Iraq—but also shown American servicemen the door. After years of complaining that the United States has not done enough to counter terrorist threats, Karimov did what his Islamist foes have demanded all along: He demanded an end to the American “infidel” presence in Uzbekistan.
Full textBush at Fort Bragg: A Steadfast Course to Victory
06-29-2005In his speech before the men and women of the Airborne and Special Operations Forces at Fort Bragg, President George W. Bush clarified for the American people what is at stake in Iraq. He defined the enemy as Islamist totalitarians who are willing to kill innocent men, women and children—including fellow Muslims—for the sake of their ideology.
Full textCongress Should Lift OPEC’s Immunity
06-27-2005On June 21, the Senate voted in support of an amendment to the Energy Bill that would allow the federal government to sue the Organization for Petroleum Exporting States (OPEC). At a time when oil prices are climbing to ever-higher levels, this measure is a welcome first step towards reestablishing the free market in this strategically important sector. The move is long overdue and points the way to a second step: allowing private antitrust suits against OPEC.
Full textTime to Relaunch Ukraine’s Economic Policy
06-14-2005Ukraine is an important American geostrategic priority in Eastern Europe. Many U.S. policymakers and experts believe that Ukraine’s integration into the global economy, and Europe in particular, will change the geopolitical balance in Eastern Europe and could trigger positive changes in other post-Soviet states. Above all, it will benefit the people of Ukraine. Therefore, the outcome of Ukrainian reforms is important for U.S. foreign policy.
Full textCelebrating the Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan Pipeline
06-13-2005Opened late last month, the Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan (BTC) oil pipeline has a capacity of 1 million barrels of oil per day and is the greatest achievement in the Caspian energy area. The pipeline will take oil from Azerbaijan and eventually Kazakhstan to the global markets—free of Russian and Iranian domination. After years of inaccessibility for the West, vast oil reserves under the Caspian Sea—comparable to those in Kuwait—are now within hand’s reach of the world’s commodity markets.
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Democratization Challenges: Has Mr. Karimov Overstayed His Welcome?
06-10-2005As the U.S. and Israel withdrew their non-essential personnel and diplomatic families from their embassies in Uzbekistan due to "specific" terror threats, the U.S. policy in Central Asia seems to be facing a fundamental challenge: How the Bush Administration can promote democratization without giving up strategic priorities of the war on Islamist terror.
Full textThe Khodorkovsky Verdict: A Setback for U.S.-Russian Relations
06-02-2005A harsh, nine-year sentence meted out by a Russian court on May 31 against Mikhail Khodorkovsky, former owner of the YUKOS oil company, and his partner Platon Lebedev sends a chilling signal to Western and Russian investors and could disrupt U.S.-Russian relations. President George W. Bush, in an unusually blunt language, said that it seemed that Khodorkovsky “had been adjudged guilty prior to having a fair trial.” Unfortunately, that is a fair assessment.
Full textUZBEKISTAN: A POLICY PROVING GROUND FOR WASHINGTON
05-31-2005The Andijan events in Uzbekistan have sharpened the debate among policy makers in Washington over whether American support for Uzbek President Islam Karimov helps or hurts US national security interests. Many in Washington have grown disenchanted with Karimov’s authoritarian methods. However, some continue to view the Uzbek leader as a bulwark against Islamic radicals in Central Asia.
Full textPreventing a Nightmare Scenario: Terrorist Attacks Using Russian Nuclear Weapons and Materials
05-20-2005Since the terrorist attacks on September 11, 2001, Americans have been lucky that there have not been more atrocities on U.S. soil. However, the enemy, while weakened, is far from destroyed.
Full textChallenge in Uzbekistan
05-18-2005With more than 500 dead in Andijan, a city in the impoverished and overpopulated Fergana Valley, a hotbed of Islamic extremism in Uzbekistan, the face of Central Asia has changed forever. Brittle relations between the government of President Islam Karimov and his people are bloodstained.
Full textThe Uzbekistan Dilemma
05-13-2005With over 500 dead in Andijian, a hotbed of Islamic extremism in the impoverished and overpopulated Fergana Valley in Uzbekistan, the face of Central Asia is changed. Akramia, an allegedly radical Islamic group, appears to be behind the uprising against President Islam Karimov’s government. The government’s heavy-handed tactics and deliberate provocation by Akramia appear to be at fault for the massacre.
Full textOn the road to Moscow
05-08-2005President George W. Bush’s visit to Latvia, Russia and the Republic of Georgia underscores how much the geopolitical landscape changed 13 years after the collapse of the Soviet Empire.
In Riga, Mr. Bush will address leaders of Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania. These are America’s new allies -- members of North Atlantic Treaty Organization. They are also members of the European Union. Russia is an ex-rival and a strategic partner, a vague term indeed. Georgia (and neighboring Azerbaijan) are emerging allies.
President Bush’s Messages to the Baltic States, Russia, and Georgia
05-04-2005President George W. Bush’s visit to Latvia, Russia, and Georgia underscores how much the geopolitical landscape in that part of the world has changed in the 13 years since the collapse of the Soviet Empire. In Riga, Bush will speak to the leaders of Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania, now members of North Atlantic Treaty Organization and European Union and strong allies of America. Bush’s second stop, Russia, once a rival, is now a strategic partner—an appropriately vague term, to be sure. Georgia, the President’s final stop, and neighboring Azerbaijan are emerging allies. The President must convey different messages to the people and leaders of each country, while promoting American foreign policy and security interests.
Full textTENSION SEEPS BACK INTO US-RUSSIAN RELATIONS
04-20-2005The Bush administration’s desire to promote the globalization of democratic values is fueling tension in the United States’ relationship with Russia, a country that has experienced a dramatic erosion of its geopolitical influence over the past 18 months.
Full textNorth Caucasus at Risk
04-10-2005Since the March 8 death of Aslan Maskhadov, former president of Chechnya and supreme commander of Chechen militant forces, Russia has escalated its anti-terrorism operations in the North Caucasus region.
Last Tuesday, Russian security forces apprehended Adam Jabrailov, a Chechen terrorist responsible for capturing, killing and beheading four Red Cross workers in 1996.
The ADVANCE Democracy Act: A Dose of Realism Needed, with Halle Dale
04-08-2005A wave of democratic change is spreading around the world, from Afghanistan to Iraq to Ukraine, from Lebanon to Kyrgyzstan. These historic events demonstrate that we live in a truly interconnected world. President George W. Bush’s words, spoken in his second inaugural address and State of the Union speech, are resonating around the world and moving crowds.
Full textAfter Maskhadov: Islamist Terrorism Threatens North Caucasus and Russia
04-01-2005The violent demise on March 8 of Aslan Maskhadov, former president of Chechnya and supreme commander of the Chechen militant forces, is President Vladimir Putin’s short-term gain, but it may be Russia’s long-term loss. Now the war in Chechnya will further lose its “national liberation” character and the pretense of Chechen independence, which Maskhadov symbolized, and Moscow will confront the deadly face of Islamic extremist terrorism.
Full textBUSH ADMINISTRATION WELCOMES THE KYRGYZ REVOLUTION
03-29-2005Kyrgyzstan’s revolution is widely welcomed in Washington, and has some American policy planners contemplating the possibility of regime change in other Central Asian nations, especially Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan.
Full textFrom Lemon Revolution to Lemonade?
03-24-2005The people of Kyrgyzstan have spoken -- and acted.
As they storm presidential palace and government buildings in the capital Bishkek, the government is paralyzed and impotent. The resignation of President Askar Akaev is the best way out of the crisis. Otherwise, the country will be facing a civil war, a bloody uprising, a possible disintegration, or all of the above. What’s more, turmoil in Kyrgyzstan may destabilize its large neighbors, Uzbekistan and Kazakhstan, with catastrophic consequences of inter-ethnic and political violence.
Helping Kyrgyzstan’s Democratic Revolution
03-24-2005The people of Kyrgyzstan have spoken—and acted. On Thursday, they stormed presidential headquarters and government buildings in the capital Bishkek in response to rigged parliamentary elections, and the government appears to be losing its grip on power. The Supreme Court has since annulled the elections, and the country is likely to return to the polls shortly. Still, Kyrgyzstan may face the prospects of civil war and possible disintegration if President Askar Akaev does not resign. In turn, turmoil in Kyrgyzstan could bring inter-ethnic and political violence to its larger neighbors, Uzbekistan and Kazakhstan, and lead to their destabilization. To prevent this outcome and win another victory for democracy, the U.S. and its allies convince President Akaev to step down—and soon.
Full textRussian Oil After YUKOS: Implications for the United States
02-28-2005The Russian oil and gas sector’s new paradigm can be summarized in two words: "state domination." The free-market paradigm has been abandoned. In December 2004, the tax authorities bankrupted YUKOS, a major oil company, for alleged tax arrears and sold its main production unit, Yuganskneftegaz, to the state-owned oil company Rosneft, using a straw company as an intermediary. Chinese state banks apparently financed the purchase with $6 billion in loans. To top it off, Rosneft is merging with state-owned Gazprom, the largest natural gas company in the world.
Full textBush-Putin: The Toughest Summit Ever
02-23-2005MOSCOW -- Meetings with key Russian officials in this town last week reveal that the Putin Administration is facing a crisis of confidence. Russian Prime Minister Mikhail Fradkov’s Cabinet survived a Duma vote of no confidence on February 9th, but the real target of the abuse heaped on the Prime Minister by the nationalist and leftist opposition parties, which are artifacts of power elites, was never in doubt: Mr. Putin himself.
Full textFacing Putin in Bratislava
02-21-2005MOSCOW — President Bush’s summit with Vladimir Putin in Bratislava Thursday Feb. 24 will be the most difficult meeting two men ever had. A year after Mr. Putin handily won a second presidential term, his domestic and foreign challenges are snowballing, and his aura of an almost-superhuman invincibility is quickly dissipating. This is not to say Mr. Putin should be looked down upon or counted out: He is still in control.
Full textThe Other Inauguration
01-21-2005President Victor Yuschenko’s inauguration on Sunday January 23 is not the end of the road: it is the beginning of a fundamentally new relationship between the US and the West, and Ukraine. Washington needs to throw a lifeline to Kyiv to complete the historic transformation and to build the democratic and free Ukraine of the 21st century.
Full textThe Lessons of Ukraine: Russia’s Growing Influence in Eurasia
11-12-2004The outcome of the Ukrainian presidential elections could dramatically increase Moscow’s influence in Eurasia. If former Prime Minister Victor Yanukovich (the Kremlin’s preferred candidate) is elected, the Kremlin would virtually control the Ukrainian presidency. That would allow Russia to exercise greater geopolitical influence in Ukraine and would increase Moscow’s political momentum in the rest of Eurasia.
Full textThe End of a Terrorist
11-10-2004As Yasir Arafat lies dying in a French hospital, it is clear that after having brought disaster to the people he claimed to represent, he is leaving them in the lurch. To reach real peace, Palestinians will need to overcome Arafat’s legacy. The Fatah ("Conquest") chief leaves behind him a legacy of violence against innocent civilians, corruption, irredentism, manipulation of religion, brainwashing, and child abuse for political purposes.
Full textRussia’s Gravitational Pull in Eurasia Stands to Strengthen After Ukraine Election
11-10-2004The outcome of Ukraine’s contentious presidential vote could have far-reaching ramifications for the US-Russian geopolitical competition in Central Asia and the Caucasus. An election victory by Prime Minister Viktor Yanukovich, who is widely viewed as Russia’s preferred candidate, could embolden Kremlin efforts to enhance its position in the energy-rich Caspian Basin.
Full textU.S.-Russian Security Cooperation After Beslan
10-25-2004On September 1, 2004, the first day of school, a multiethnic group of over 30 radical Islamist terrorists, including two female suicide bombers and some Chechens, took more than 1,000 children, teachers, and parents hostage in Beslan, North Ossetia. The terrorists deployed explosives around the school, hanging them from basketball hoops in the gym, where most of the children were held. This was the fifth massive hostage-taking event in Russia since 1995, and it ended in tragedy. Shamil Basaev, leader of the radical Islamist wing of the Chechen separatist movement, has taken responsibility for the massacre.
Full textThe U.S. Should Oppose Dictatorship in Belarus
10-15-2004President Alexandr Lukashenka of Belarus has added a referendum to the October 17 parliamentary elections, asking Belarusians to allow him to participate in the next presidential election (prohibited by his own tailor-made constitution) and to remove the presidential term limits from the constitution.
Full textRUSSIA’S SOVIET NOSTALGIA POSES SECURITY THREAT
09-29-2004Much has been reported about Russian President Vladimir Putin’s September 6 meeting with Western journalists and academics, just days after the tragedy at Beslan. What many of the reports have missed, however, was Putin’s overt questioning of post-Soviet borders.
Full textGoing Soviet: Putin and the Beslan Response
09-24-2004Two days after the Beslan tragedy ended in a fiery blood bath, a group of Western experts and journalists, including this author, met with Vladimir Putin for tea in his state residence in Novo-Ogarevo. It was a grim affair.
Full textPutin at War: Unscripted
09-20-2004Three days after the tragedy of Beslan ended, we sat for over three and a half hours with Vladimir Putin. Between picking up the pieces of the worst Russian terror attack to date and planning a massive power consolidation, the energetic Russian leader still found time to meet with leading Western scholars and journalists, answering our questions at length, totally unscripted.
Full textVenezuela: A flashing red light
08-18-2004After open-collar, red-shirt-clad Hugo Chavez claimed a victory in a referendum, the global oil outlook is gloomier than before. Geopolitically, Venezuela has become a flashing red light.
During his six years in power, Mr. Chavez has increasingly politicized oil, nationalized and mismanaged the national oil company PDVSA, and used its finances as a political kitty (up to $3.7 billion this year alone) to buy off the poor. Beyond Venezuela, he sees himself replacing Fidel Castro as the leader of Latin America’s radical left, opposing democracy, free markets, and American influence.
Minimizing Mischief in Venezuela, Stabilizing the U.S. Oil Supply
08-12-2004Venezuelan President Hugo Ch?vez is systematically leading his country into dictatorship by provoking internal conflict and characterizing his internal opponents as traitors. Beyond Venezuela, he sees himself replacing Fidel Castro as the leader of Latin America’s radical left--uniting the region against U.S.-style democracy, free markets, and American influence.
Full textTerror in Tashkent
08-05-2004Last Friday, three suicide bombers blew themselves up next two the U.S. and Israeli Embassies and Prosecutor General’s Office in Tashkent, Uzbekistan.
Three Uzbek security men, including the Israeli ambassador’s bodyguard, were killed and eight were civilians wounded. The attacks coincided with the start of the trials of radical Islamists accused of perpetrating massive March terrorist attacks killing 35 people and wounding scores. Two terrorist groups, Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan (IMU), and Islamic Jihad, claimed responsibility for the attack.
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Addressing Nigeria’s Economic Problems and the Islamist Terrorist Threat
05-19-2004Nigeria is a case study in oil-based wealth being squandered by poor governance and internal strife. Instability in Nigeria merits U.S. attention because it is a major non-Middle Eastern oil producer (accounting for 3 percent of global oil production in 2001) and was America’s fifth largest (9.6 percent) source of crude oil imports in 2003. Moreover, Islamist radicals hope to exploit Nigeria’s poverty, political turmoil, and inadequate law enforcement--thereby making Nigeria a potential regional security threat. Recent Muslim-Christian clashes, which have left hundreds of people dead and more than 1,000 wounded, highlight this threat. Ongoing assaults against Nigerian oil production, general instability, economic mismanagement, and the threat of Islamist radicalism necessitate that the U.S. work with Nigeria to address these problems.
Full textAfter the Uzbekistan Terror Attacks: Don’t Sanction, but Press for Democracy
05-04-2004Islamic Jihad, a group previously unknown in Uzbekistan, has announced that it was responsible for March’s suicide bombings and other attacks, which claimed the lives of 45 people, primarily in Tashkent and Boukhara. Further attacks may well destabilize Uzbekistan’s secular government, which would be a disaster for the U.S.-led war on terror. Despite claims to the contrary from the human rights community, Washington should understand that poverty and repression are not the root causes of terrorism, though democratic and economic reforms are vital for the long-term survival of Uzbekistan’s secular state. The United States should work with Uzbekistan to promote such reforms.
Full textA Strategy to Democratize Belarus
03-30-2004As the October 2004 parliamentary elections in Belarus are becoming a priority for democratic forces in the country and for Western friends of Belarussian democracy, it is the time to act.
Full textTargeted Killings are Legitimate Self-Defense
03-26-2004As world leaders grieve in Madrid over 201 victims of the train bombing, and Israel is taking flak from the Europeans for the targeted killing of Sheikh Ahmad Yassin, three anti-terrorism models emerge.
Full textWeak justice
03-18-2004When a U.S. presidential candidate contends the struggle against terrorism is only a matter for "justice and intelligence," the events in Madrid demonstrate this is not the case. Today’s justice, law enforcement and secret services — even in Europe — do not seem up to snuff.
Full textRecent Changes in Russia and Their Impact on U.S.-Russian Relations
03-09-2004As President Vladimir Putin awaits re-election for a second term with no significant challenges, U.S.-Russian relations are in limbo. The revival of statism and nationalism has seriously diminished Russia’s chances of being regarded as a close and reliable partner that is clearly committed to democratic values. Nevertheless, there are ways by which the United States and Russia can restore their cooperation on the basis of pragmatism and the pursuit of compatible national interests, including enhancing each other’s security, economic ties, democracy, and human rights.
Full textModels and Policies for Oil Production, Revenue Collection, and Public Expenditure: Lessons in Iraq
03-04-2004Countries in both the developed and the developing worlds rely on a stable and secure supply of oil. However, abuses and misallocations of oil revenues often lead to social and political instability and, at times, armed conflict. The broader the political cooperation and public consensus, and the greater the transparency in the management of oil revenues, the greater the chance that the supplier will remain stable.
Full textPutin Sacks the Cabinet
02-26-2004On February 24, three weeks before the March 14 Presidential elections, Vladimir Putin dramatically fired his Prime Minister, Mikhail Kasyanov, as well as his entire cabinet. All the world knows who the next Russian President will be, but the real game in Moscow today is: who will Mr. Putin appoint to be the next Prime Minister? Under the law, the President will nominate the Prime Minister within two weeks after the elections.
Full textFacing the Russian Rhetoric in Eurasia
02-25-2004Vladimir Putin sent shivers down the spine of CIS leaders on February 12 when he declared the demise of the Soviet Union a "national tragedy on an enormous scale." The nostalgia for the collapse of the Soviet empire was genuine and not pre-election rhetoric: "The breakup of the Soviet Union is a national tragedy on an enormous scale," from which "only the elites and nationalists of the republics gained," Putin said in a nationally televised speech. Is Russia going to operationalize this nostalgia? Will a new robust policy in the CIS go beyond traditional diplomacy? What responses CIS states will pursue? And what options Washington has to counter this rhetoric?
Full textSaakashvili Visits Washington Amid Heightening Geopolitical Tension in the Caucasus
02-24-2004Georgian President Mikheil Saakashvili is in Washington for talks with top-level Bush administration officials on expanding strategic and economic cooperation. The Georgian leader’s US visit is coming at a time of geopolitical uncertainty in the Caucasus, with Moscow and Washington potentially on a collision course.
Full textGeorgian Inauguration Complicates US-Russian Relations
01-23-2004On January 25, US Secretary of State Colin Powell will attend Mikhail Saakashvili’s inauguration as president of Georgia. The transition of power there has some Washington strategists imagining ways to export Georgia’s "revolution" to other post-Soviet states. It has also led to consternation in Moscow which could further erode the spirit of partnership that the Kremlin forged with US President George W. Bush in late 2001.
Full textUS Officials Warily Monitor Russian Policy Debate on the Caucasus
01-09-2004US official are warily monitoring a policy debate in Russia over how Moscow should deal with its former Soviet neighbors. Many in Washington believe that the strong showing by nationalists in the recent Russian parliamentary election could prompt the Kremlin to toughen its stance towards states in the Caucasus and Central Asia.
Full textIsrael Becomes an Eurasian Oil Transit Country
12-23-2003Russia and Israel have formally agreed to ship oil from the Russian oil terminals in the Black Sea via the Israeli Eilat-Ashkelon pipeline, to Asian markets. This pipeline has the potential to greatly decrease the transit time for oil exports from the Mediterranean to the Far East. This development signals a new level of cooperation between Russia and Israel in the energy field, and emergence of the Jewish state as a player in Russian and Eurasian pipeline politics.
Full textIsrael’s Security Conundrum
12-23-2003HERTZLIYA, Israel -- In a major policy speech Israel’s Prime Minister Ariel Sharon announced Thursday that if the Road Map is not implemented by the Palestinian Authority, he will pull the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) from major areas in Judea, Samaria and Gaza, and tear down Jewish villages there.
Full textThe Kremlin That Killed Kyoto
12-16-2003MOSCOW, Russia -- Andrey Illarionov, Russian President Vladimir Putin’s libertarian economic adviser, almost single-handedly engineered the Kremlin’s commitment to kill the Kyoto Protocol -- a climate control treaty heavily promoted by the European Union and environmentalist movement. UN Secretary General Koffi Annan called upon Putin last Thursday to ratify the treaty. Without the Russian and American signatures, the Protocol is dead in the water.
Full textRussian Duma Elections: How the U.S. Should Respond to "Controlled Democracy"
12-12-2003The tectonic political shift that occurred in Sunday’s parliamentary elections will make Russia more difficult diplomatically and less hospitable to foreign investment. The biggest winner was President Vladimir Putin, whose United Russia party won 37 percent of the vote and, together with its allies, has close to the two-thirds majority necessary to change the constitution, including extending the president’s term in office beyond 2008.
Full textRussia’s "Controlled Democracy" Strikes Back
12-11-2003The tectonic plate shift in Russian politics, which occurred in parliamentary elections Sunday would make Russia diplomatically more prickly and less hospitable to foreign investment.
Full textTurkey May Move Closer to Washington in Fighting Terror
12-03-2003Turkey cannot remain the nation it was before terrorist suicide bombings in November killed 53 people. Some analysts expect Turkey will opt to tighten security at the expense of human rights, even if such action means diminishing the country’s chances of joining the European Union.
Full textU.S. Should Support Georgian Democracy and Independence
11-26-2003Eduard Shevardnadze has done his country of Georgia one last, important service—resigning as president. While the resignation avoided the bloodshed of the use of force against demonstrators in the streets, it leaves the country in a volatile situation, which the United States can help to stabilize.
Full textRiyadh Attack Threatens U.S. Energy Security
11-14-2003Al Qaeda’s massive November 8 attack in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia, killed 17 and wounded over 120. This attack targeted the Saudi royal family as well as foreign presence in this kingdom, which is vital to the oil economy. It also gave a boost to the ultimate goals of Osama bin Laden: driving the “infidels” from the Land of Two Mosques and toppling the monarchy. As the result, Western oil supply is at risk.
Full textThe Political Economy of Terror
11-11-2003Al Qaeda’s second massive attack in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia since May, and the closure of the U.S. Embassy have boosted the ultimate goal of Usama bin Laden to drive the "infidels" from the Land of Two Mosques and topple the monarchy. As a result, Western oil supply is at risk.
Full textThe YUKOS Affair: Protecting Democracy, Private Property, and the Rule of Law
11-07-2003The Kremlin’s attack on YUKOS, the major Russian oil company--including the arrest of Chairman and Chief Executive Officer Mikhail Khodorkovsky, seizure of his shares of YUKOS, and his subsequent resignation--is a watershed event in post-communist Russia. This development has negative implications on several levels, and its ripple effects are far from over. Obviously, President Vladimir Putin has been listening to those who do not care about Russian integration into the global economy and who are undermining his stated goal of doubling Russian gross domestic product by 2008.
Full textRadical Islam and U.S. Interests in Central Asia
10-29-2003U.S. power projection on a global scale due to the war on terrorism raises new issues, especially with regards to the attitude of regional powers, elites, and population, toward the American presence. Much was said, often critically, about American alleged global power aspirations. What is the actual American presence in Central Asia and how much does it change the balance of power in the region? How will it affect the future of Central Asia? What are political currents and organizations, which oppose U.S. presence in that region, and what are the ways to counter them? How U.S. presence may be influenced by radical Islamic organizations there? What is the influence of the war in Iraq on perceptions of U.S. presence in Central Asia? All these questions are awaiting their answers.
Full textGiving Thanks for Turkey
10-25-2003As the ruins of the British Consulate and HSBC Bank in Istanbul were still smoldering, and the victims of an earlier bombing of two synagogues were buried, Turkey braced for more homicide bombings.
Full textCommon Economic Space Threatens Independence of South Caucasus and Central Asian States
10-22-2003On September 19, 2003, Russia and three of its trading partners – Belarus, Ukraine, and Kazakhstan – signed an agreement on a Common Economic Space (CES). The body is sometimes also referred as the United Economic Space (UES). This economic zone is a new attempt at integration between Russia, Belarus, Ukraine, and Kazakhstan, countries that comprise 90% of Russia’s trade with the Commonwealth of Independent States.
Full textRestarting the Flow: Restoring Iraqi Oil Production
10-01-2003The Iraqi people desperately need to have their oil flowing again to the global market. Restarting the flow of Iraqi oil would be a win-win proposition, as not only the Iraqis, but also consumers around the world would benefit from bringing the Iraqi oil supply back on line.
Full textRussian Peacekeepers for Iraq?
09-26-2003At the Camp David summit which started on September 25, Presidents George W. Bush and Vladimir Putin should put the recent U.S.-Russian differences over the Iraq war behind them and close ranks on rebuilding Iraq and defeating al Qaeda. The senior leadership of both countries recognize that global terrorism is a strategic threat to their countries and to the West in general, whether in New York, the Caucasus, Moscow, or Baghdad.
Full textCorruption Case Sharpens US Policy Conundrum Towards Azerbaijan
09-18-2003A US corruption case that has implicated top Azerbaijani officials is not expected to substantively alter Bush administration policy towards Baku, experts in Washington believe. At the same time, the case stands to deepen Washington’s conundrum over its short- and longer-term interests in resource-rich Azerbaijan.
Full textBear and Camel Rapprochement
09-17-2003Geopolitical tectonic plates have shifted as the de-facto ruler of Saudi Arabia, Crown Prince Abdullah, completed his recent visit to Russia.
No longer sure of its prior close relationship with Washington, the Saudi monarchy is reaching out to the former empire it helped America to defeat in Afghanistan only 15 years ago.
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Saudi-Russian Rapprochement: U.S. Should Beware
09-12-2003The Bush Administration needs to monitor a new geopolitical shift that is taking place following the visit of de-facto ruler of Saudi Arabia, Crown Prince Abullah to Russia on September 1-2. Moscow and Riyadh, old rivals, now claim to have found a common agenda, which spans oil, terrorism, and arms sales.
Full textRusso-Saudi Romance May Marginalize the Caspian
09-10-2003Geopolitical tectonic plates have shifted as the de-facto ruler of Saudi Arabia, Crown Prince Abullah completed his visit to Russia last week. Oil-exporting Caspian states should watch with concern how the two largest energy producers are beginning their elephantine dance. In the process, smaller oil exporters on Russia’s periphery, such as Kazakhstan and Azerbaijan, may suffer if collusion between the major players results in pressure to limit oil production in order to keep global supply down.
Full textSoviet legacy affects Kazak investments
08-11-2003WASHINGTON, Aug. 11 (UPI) -- As Kazakhstan prepares to host a United Nations conference on investment in landlocked countries later this month, its own investment record is decidedly mixed.
Full textAliev Dynasty or Azerbaijiani Democracy? Securing A Democratic Transition
08-06-2003Azerbaijan’s ailing president Heydar Aliev’s bedside appointment of his son Ilham to the position of Prime Minister—and thus heir to the presidency—is forcing the Bush Administration to face the eventual passing of the Azeri leader.
Full textEmerging global menace?
07-14-2003The September 11 terrorist attack taught the United States government a painful lesson — it must be alert to emerging threats, including terrorism against its military assets, citizens and allies. Some of these emerging threats, combined with the actions of terrorist Jihadi organizations, such as al Qaeda, may also generate political instability in key geographic areas and threaten pro-American regimes, such as in Central Asia.
Full textCaspian Energy Projects Coming to Grips with Iraq War
07-02-2003In the aftermath of the Iraqi war, leaders and countries in the Caspian littoral are competing to obtain maximum geopolitical and economic advantage by attracting investors through lower bureaucratic barriers and reduced political risk. The Iraq war has generated rethinking on the part of regional governments, who now have to adapt to a more competitive situation. Iran’s stance is still ambiguous with contradicting hard and soft lines, while some Balkan operators are beginning to involve in the pipeline discussion.
Full textTechnology Defines Iran’s Defiance
06-23-2003While student demonstrations continue growing in Iran, Tehran is relentless in defiance of the Great Satan -- America. The mullahs are betting on a blend of nationalism and military technology that will secure the regime’s survival. Nuclear weapons and missiles technology from Russia, North Korea, and Pakistan are supposed to shore up the 24 year old Shari’a rule and protect it from a U.S.-led regime-change operation. However, Tehran is coming under geopolitical pressure from the increased U.S. presence in the Persian Gulf and Iraq. As such, the hard-liners may be miscalculating: American technological superiority in military and intelligence fields, and the spread of global communications may be the trends that will overpower the Islamic regime in the near future.
Full textHizb ut-Tahrir: An Emerging Threat to U.S. Interests in Central Asia
05-30-2003Hizb ut-Tahrir al-Islami (Islamic Party of Liberation) is an emerging threat to American interests in Central and South Asia and the Middle East. It is a clandestine, cadre-operated, radical Islamist political organization that operates in 40 countries around the world, with headquarters apparently in London. Its proclaimed goal is jihad against America and the overthrow of existing political regimes and their replacement with a Caliphate (Khilafah in Arabic), a theocratic dictatorship based on the Shari’a (religious Islamic law). The model for Hizb is the "righteous" Caliphate, a militaristic Islamic state that existed in the 7th and 8th centuries under Mohammad and his first four successors, known as the "righteous Caliphs."
Full textEnergy Security At Risk
05-23-2003Al Qaeda’s recent attacks in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia, and the closure of the U.S. Embassy there, have exposed the weaknesses of the kingdom’s security apparatus. These developments also further one of Osama bin Laden’s goals — to drive the "infidels" from the "Land of the Two Mosques" and topple the monarchy.
Full textIran Developing New Security Initiatives to Counter Perceived US Threat
05-14-2003Feeling threatened by the US military presence in neighboring Iraq and Afghanistan, Iranian leaders are embracing a classic deterrence concept that relies on strategic regional alliances and military preparedness to discourage enemies. The Iranian Foreign Ministry is promoting a "regional security" initiative that seeks to enhance Tehran’s ties to countries in the Caucasus. At the same time, top Iranian military offic
Full textU.S.-Russian Relations Threatened By Iraq Arms Sales
04-01-2003The Bush Administration has accused Moscow of selling sensitive military equipment to Saddam Hussein in violation of U.N. Security Council sanctions. During a March 24th telephone conversation, President George W. Bush discussed the sales of night vision goggles, anti-tank Kornet missiles, and Global Positioning System (GPS) jamming equipment with Russian President Vladimir Putin. All information regarding Russian sales was based on U.S. intelligence reports.
Full textConfronting Kazakhstan’s ’Dutch Disease’
03-26-2003As the United States is engaging in regime change in Iraq, the political turmoil in the Middle East is driving up the oil prices. Kazakhstan is flush with oil and gas revenues. However, without targeted government policy, the long term economic consequences of the hydrocarbon boom may lead to crowding out investment in the non-petroleum sectors and appreciation of the Kazakh currency, the tenge. If President Nazarbaev’s administration will continue to preside over increases in income disparities and underdevelopment, it eventually may face political instability due to inflated popular expectations. Kazakhstan has done little to prevent the Dutch disease, despite warnings from the World Bank.
Full textAchieving Economic Reform and Growth in Iraq
03-25-2003The future of Iraq depends not only on the ouster of the repressive regime of Saddam Hussein but also on the ability of the new Iraqi leaders to develop policies that will spur real economic growth and reverse the damage to the economy caused by 40 years of gross mismanagement.
Full textWar of Ideas - The old-new battlefield
03-19-2003The resignation of Charlotte Beers, undersecretary of state for public diplomacy, calls for a reexamination of how the U.S. is waging a war of ideas against Islamist terrorism. Beers’s resignation comes as the State Department is facing increasing difficulty marshalling international public opinion in support of the coming war against Iraq. The battle for hearts and minds is not a short-term campaign but a protracted conflict that will last decades, if not generations. It should be guided by an integrated strategy of public diplomacy and political covert action, something that the United States has not attempted for half a century, since the early stages of the Cold War.
Full textBoom and Bust of Eurasia’s Oil Bonanza
03-17-2003As the threat of the war in the Middle East is driving the oil prices up, and the demand for energy is growing due to the Asian economic recovery and a cold winter, Eurasia is flush with oil and gas revenue. However, absent active government policy, long term economic consequences of the Eurasian oil bonanza may lead to crowding out investment in the non-petroleum sectors and appreciation of currencies, known in the economic circles as the Dutch disease. Moreover, lack of the "trickle down effect" may lead to increase in poverty and underdevelopment, and, especially in the case of the poorest Eurasian states, such as Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, and possibly in Turkmenistan, result in political instability due to inflation of expectations. So far, governments in the region are doing little to prevent the Dutch disease, which strikes oil economies around the world with uncanny regularity.
Full textA Private Russian Oil Pipeline Is Good for U.S. Energy Security
03-14-2003With the winds of war blowing over the Middle East and Venezuela’s oil production down by over 30 percent due to labor protests against President Hugo Chбvez, the United States is considering diversifying its sources of oil away from politically unstable regions. To achieve this, the U.S. should support development of a privately owned oil pipeline from Western Siberia to Murmansk, Russia. The U.S. government should make this project a top priority in bilateral security, economic policy, and business frameworks.
Full textRussia-U.S.: A Beautiful Friendship?
02-20-2003With the United States and Iraq moving closer to war, America is finding out who its friends really are.
Dozens of countries have lined up alongside the United States, including Great Britain, Spain and the Czech Republic. More can be expected to get on board if war breaks out.
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Eurasian States Grapple With Difficult Choices Over Looming Iraq Offensive
02-15-2003Continued European Union resistance to US plans for a quick blitz of Iraq is forcing the countries of the Caucasus and Central Asia to choose sides. Caucasus nations have so far tended to side with the United States. Central Asian countries, meanwhile, appear divided with Uzbekistan generally backing Washington’s position, and Kazakhstan and Kyrgyzstan drifting toward the European viewpoint.
Full textThe U.S., Russia Iran: the Coming Crisis
02-10-2003In the wake of the wave of global instability generated by the U.S.-North Korean nuclear weapons disagreement, and beyond Iraq and the war on terrorism, a future crisis is looming which may derail U.S.-Russian relations and upset an uneasy geopolitical equilibrium in Eurasia between Russia, the U.S., Iran and Turkey. This is the Iranian nuclear weapons program, which will undoubtedly strain U.S.-Russian relations and may escalate friction in the Caucasus and Central Asia. In view of pending successions and state weakness in Georgia and Azerbaijan, and brittle regimes from Ashgabat to Bishkek, escalation of tensions between regional and international powers may be fraught with destabilizing consequences.
Full textChina’s Quest for Eurasia’s Natural Resources
01-07-2003As China continues its impressive economic growth, access to natural resources and raw materials is becoming increasingly vital, and will feature more prominently on the policy agenda of the decision makers in Beijing. If China seeks to maintain its economic growth rate of 1985-2000, it will face a major raw materials shortage and will be forced to focus on Eurasia as a source of major energy resources, water and food. This is likely to lead to growing economic and political involvement in Russia and Central Asia.
Full textRussia and Religious Terrorism: Shifting Dangers
01-07-2003The late December bombing of the Russian headquarters in the Chechen capital Grozny, in which at least 57 people were killed, is the most recent indicator that Russia’s campaign to crush Chechen separatism is not faring well. The Chechen conflict is one that Russia can ill afford to lose. Yet, some observers now believe that Moscow will be hard-pressed to achieve its goals. The end result may be a spread of instability across the North Caucasus region.
Full textNew Russian Deployment Marks Changed Strategy
12-17-2002The Bush Administration is reacting calmly to the Russian Air Force’s deployment of planes at the Kant air base in Kyrgyzstan, which Russia announced in early December. The deployment is relatively small and temporary, but the muted American response to it indicates broader trends in American strategic policy toward Russia.
Full textPrivatize Iraqi Oil, Post-war planning
12-11-2002As the U.N. Security Council is caught up in a chain of events that is likely to end up in removal of Saddam Hussein’s regime, the Bush administration should plan for the future of a post-Saddam Iraq. Economic issues will loom large. Iraq’s economy has been grossly mismanaged, and its people brutally repressed, for 40 years. Iraq desperately needs an alternative to the failed policies of its dictator. Sound economics are needed to help the Iraqi people rebuild their lives and their country after two decades of wars and four decades of repression under the current regime.
Full textMoscow Hostage Crisis Demands Greater U.S.-Russia Security Cooperation
12-11-2002With U.S. and Western interests worldwide threatened by terrorist attack, the October hostage crisis in Moscow perpetrated by Chechen Islamist extremists has raised concerns about the security of post-Soviet stockpiles of weapons of mass destruction (WMD) and nuclear reactors in Russia and Eurasia. U.S. investments in Russian and Caspian oil fields and supply routes are also threatened. Because some Chechen rebels have links to al-Qaeda, the likelihood of another terrorist attack with massive civilian casualties or the use of WMD in the Russian-Chechen conflict has grown significantly since the hostage crisis. To prevent that, the United States should expand anti-terrorism and security cooperation with Russia, bilaterally and through the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO)-Russia Council established in May, and with other Eurasian states.
Full textStrategic Cooperation Key to U.S.-Russia Summit
11-15-2002When President George Bush and Russian President Vladimir Putin meet for their historic summit later this month, the agenda should focus on the growing number of foreign policy and security challenges in which closer cooperation is necessary, if not crucial. These challenges include war against Iraq; the war on terrorism; North Korea’s nuclear and ballistic missile programs; Russia’s proliferation of weapons of mass destruction (WMD) and related technologies to countries like Iran; and energy security.
Full textThey’re B-a-a-a-ck!
10-30-2002The antiwar movement is trying to stage a comeback. It may be back with a whimper rather than with a bang — but back it is.
Full textEurope’s Multilateral Utopia
10-18-2002The Europeans’ near-hysteria on Iraq is but one more symptom of a growing rift between America and its allies. That gap stems from increasingly divergent perceptions of the nature of the international framework, of security threats, and of desired outcomes. Even as the U.S. lays plans to make the world safe from Saddam’s menace, European analysts, academics, and diplomats are voicing shrill criticism of American values and President Bush’s policies.
Full textNew Great Games in the Caspian Will Involve Complex Stakes
10-11-2002The start of construction on the Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan pipeline in September marked the conclusion of the latest round in the new Great Game over Caspian Basin energy resources. Less than a month later, the major competitors in the contest for regional economic and political influence are already jockeying for position in the next stage.
Full textU.S.-Russian Energy Cooperation Is Good Policy
10-10-2002Senator Conrad Burns (R-MT), Representative Curt Weldon (R-PA), and other Members of Congress plan to introduce a concurrent resolution calling for further cooperation with the Russian Federation on energy development. They have a strong case. Among their concerns are over-dependence on oil from Saudi Arabia and imports from Iraq and other rogue states. Over 20 percent of America’s foreign oil comes from the highly unstable Persian Gulf. Even before September 11, the United States faced the untenable possibility that some of these imports could be, in Senator Burns’ words, "rogue oil"--that is, oil from countries that use the proceeds to support terrorism or to purchase or develop weapons of mass destruction.
Full textThe Road to Economic Prosperity for a Post-Saddam Iraq
09-25-2002As the Bush Administration and Iraqi opposition groups plan the future of a post-Saddam Hussein Iraq without its menacing arsenal of weapons of mass destruction (WMD), economic issues loom large. Iraq’s economy has been grossly mismanaged for 40 years, and its people desperately need an alternative strategy to supplant the failed policies of its dictator. Sound economics are needed to help them rebuild their lives and their country after two decades of wars and four decades of repression under the current regime.
Full textEurope-Russia-America: Determining Factors of Cooperation in the 21st Century
09-10-2002The first anniversary of 9/11 attack. A good time to take stock of where we are and where should we go. We should be going there together, regardless of what appeasers, isolationists and anti-globalists may say. Because in this war, we are together.
Full textNot Just America’s War
09-10-2002The first anniversary of the 9/11 attack is a fitting time to take stock of where America is and where we want to go. We are going to defeat those who hate our freedom, our tolerance, our way of life, our faith in equality and opportunity. This vision is shared by hundreds of millions of people across the planet. This is not just America’s war. We are not alone.
Full textIran’s Claim Over Caspian Sea Resources Threaten Energy Security
09-05-2002The need for Washington to focus its attention on energy security and diversification became clear as the war on terrorism began. The U.S. should strongly oppose Iran’s threatening military actions to claim a larger portion of the energy-rich Caspian Sea.
Full textCurbing U.S. Enthusiasm - The Russia-China alliance.
09-04-2002Russian Prime Minister Mikhail Kasyanov recently concluded a visit to China with unusual declarations concerning key strategic areas. Moscow and Beijing are trying to keep American security initiatives in check.
Full textWho’s Afraid of U.S.-Russian Friendship?
08-23-2002Is America’s honeymoon with Russia over? Last weekend Iraq’s ambassador to Moscow, Abbas Khalaf, announced that Russia will be signing a $40 billion, ten-year economic cooperation pact with Saddam. Does this mean Putin supports Iraq against the possible U.S. military operation? Only recently, Moscow declared that it will sell five more nuclear reactors to the mullahs in Tehran — and that the North Korea’s "Dear Leader," Kim Jong Il, will visit Russia.
Full textBush’s Accomplishment: Getting energy from Russia
06-20-2002The U.S. has declared energy cooperation with Russia as one of the main points of a strategic framework the Bush administration is developing with the Kremlin. The May Bush-Putin summit declarations, as well as conversations with government energy officials in Moscow and senior managers of the major Russian oil producers, indicate the beginnings of a major energy-policy trend.
Full textAfter the Summit: US Focuses on Eurasian Energy Cooperation
06-07-2002Russia is emerging as a key point on the US energy agenda. Washington is encouraging Moscow to assume a greater international role in energy markets. The US aim is to develop Russia and other Central Eurasian states into major oil suppliers, along with Mexico, Nigeria and other non-OPEC producers. However, energy-sector cooperation faces substantial obstacles, including lingering mutual suspicion and Russia’s inefficient energy network.
Full textWhy Russia’s Accession to the WTO Is in America’s Economic and Strategic Interests
05-22-2002Among the important topics of discussion for President George W. Bush and Russian President Vladimir Putin at their May 23-25 summit meetings in Moscow and St. Petersburg will likely be Russia’s accession to the World Trade Organization (WTO). The issue richly deserves their attention. Since China’s accession to the WTO in November 2001, Russia is the largest economy that is not yet a part of this global trade forum. Given Russia’s growing importance as a strategic partner of the United States in the war on terrorism and the growth in its economy over the past three years, Russia’s accession to the WTO is clearly in America’s interest.
Full textThe Bush-Putin Summit: Crafting a 21st-century Security Framework
05-22-2002When President George W. Bush and Russian president Vladimir Putin meet for summits in Russia and Rome later this month, they will have an opportunity to define a new framework for U.S.-Russia strategic relations that extends beyond the Cold War. The meetings in St. Petersburg and Moscow on May 23-26 and at the NATO-Russia summit in Rome two days later will allow the two leaders to focus on matters of national security and economic policy. This can become a foundation for a new 21st-century security architecture.
Full textU.S.-Russia Summit Priorities: The Strategic Framework, a Nuclear Arms Agreement, and Trade
05-14-2002When President George W. Bush and Russian President Vladimir Putin meet for summits in Russia and Rome later this month, they will have an opportunity to define a new framework for U.S.-Russia strategic relations that extends beyond the war on terrorism. Such a framework could lay the foundation for a new 21st century security architecture while facilitating Russia’s integration into the European-North Atlantic security and economic environment.
Full textBringing Russia into an Anti-Saddam Coalition
04-29-2002As President George Bush prepares for the upcoming summit with Russian President Vladimir Putin in St. Petersburg and Moscow on May 23-26, he must look for ways to encourage Russia to become a full ally in the war on terrorism and a strategic partner in the new global security environment. This means encouraging Russia to support an effort to make the world safe from the growing threat posed by Saddam Hussein and his weapons of mass destruction (WMD).
Full textCIS Remains Top Priority in Russian Foreign Policy
04-24-2002President Putin’s recent State of the Federation address clearly indicates that Russia puts increased emphasis on the CIS in its foreign policy. Moreover, it indicates an understanding that security and economic imperatives dictate that countries in the region pursue pluralistic and "multi-polar" policies. Moscow will emphasize its military ties, security cooperation, infrastructure projects, and cultural and educational cooperation to boost its influence in the region. Yet the military may not be satisfied with the official line, and the FSB is for the first time officially working outside Russia’s borders.
Full textEchoes of Venezuela Reverberate in Eurasia
04-23-2002The repercussions of the failed coup against Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez extended halfway across the world to the shores of the Caspian, where the leaders of the littoral nations are set to meet to discuss dividing the sea’s abundant energy resources. Instability in Venezuela, the world’s fourth-largest oil supplier, has Eurasian states scrambling to seize the moment of opportunity for their own energy sectors.
Full textJenin: The Big Lie
04-16-2002As the Israelis were busy hosing pools of blood off the streets after the latest murder-suicide bombing at Jerusalem’s Machane Yehuda market, the Palestinian propaganda machine was busy churning out yet another Big Lie: the "massacre of Jenin."
Full textFighting to the Last Palestinian: Saddam, Arafat and their posse
04-10-2002Yasser Arafat and Saddam Hussein are willing to sacrifice thousands of lives to remain in power and prevent the United States from attacking Iraq. They are willing to fight the Israelis and the U.S. to the last Palestinian. From the outside, the suicide-murders being carried out by the teenagers and young adults may seem senseless, but the internal logic and emotion of Arab and Muslim politics dictate the escalation of the body count.
Full textRadio Liberty Launches Controversial Chechen Service
03-27-2002The Bush Administration has allowed the North Caucasus broadcasts of Radio Liberty-Radio Free Europe to go ahead on April 3. These 15-minute broadcasts from Prague will include programming in Chechen, to which the Russian government strongly objects. The Bush Administration’s decision to take action may be interpreted as support for the Chechens, and may complicate its relationship with Putin at the time the U.S. troops are poised to take on terrorist elements in the Pankisi Gorge. However, the reasons for this action may be distant from the Caucasus and have roots in domestic policy and electoral politics.
Full textUS Officials Give High Marks to Karimov on Washington Visit
03-18-2002The US government is putting the best face possible on Uzbek President Islam Karimov’s visit to Washington. Officials from the State Department, National Security Council and the Pentagon stress that Karimov promised to improve Uzbekistan’s human rights record, adding that they believe Karimov is sincere in his desire to promote civil society in the Central Asian nation.
Full textCriminal Activity, Not Terrorism, Main Source of Pankisi Instability - Opinion Poll
03-04-2002A large majority of Georgians do not believe al Qaeda and Afghanistan-linked terrorists are the main problem in the Pankisi Gorge. Instead, they suspect Georgian officials of involvement in criminal wrongdoings in the region. These are two of several paradoxical findings of a recent opinion poll in Tbilisi.
Full textMoscow, Washington and Tbilisi Wrestle with Instability in the Pankisi Gorge
02-19-2002Reports that al Qaeda fighters, possibly including Osama bin Laden himself, have found refuge in Georgia are stoking pressure for outside military intervention. Top Russian officials are once again hinting that Moscow may feel compelled to intervene militarily to contain Islamic radicals in Georgia. Georgian President Eduard Shevardnadze is categorically opposed to Russian intervention in the Pankisi Gorge, but he has indicated that he would consider a Georgian-US joint operation.
The top US diplomat in Georgia, Philip Remler, helped focus attention to the brewing crisis in the Pankisi with an announcement that al Qaeda fighters had infiltrated the region. Georgian leaders have not disputed Remler’s assertion.
Central Asians Launch Another Regional Association
01-16-2002The transformation of the Central Asian Economic Commonwealth into the Central Asian Cooperation (CAC) comes as regional cooperation is desperately needed in the broad array of issues, from national security to environmental protection. However, past performance, petty rivalries, and the lack of economic and trade expertise make the prognosis cautious for the newly created body at best. Lacking adequate budget and trained staff, the new organization may face a mountain of mandates and lack of resources - a well-known prescription for failure.
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