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Reset the Russian Reset Policy

09-10-2010
Russian President Dmitry Medvedev recently proclaimed Eurasia a Russian "sphere of exclusive interests." Moscow has backed up those words with every available foreign-policy tool: diplomacy (including recognition of breakaway republics), arms sales, defense pacts, base construction—even regime change.
This month marks the second anniversary of the Russian-Georgian war, a conflict that put Tbilisi’s NATO and European Union ambitions on hold while cutting off for good the pro-Russian secessionist territories of Abkhazia and South Ossetia.
To further strengthen its dominance in the region, Russia was intimately involved in this April’s overthrow of Kyrgyzstan President Kurmanbek Bakiyev. The move was a payback for his refusal to evict the U.S. airbase at Manas airport and a lesson to those in the region who buck the Russian diktat.
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The Manas Base and Challenges to the U.S. Presence in Kyrgyzstan

07-27-2010
Winning in Afghanistan is a vital U.S. national interest, and since 2001, Manas Air Base in Kyrgyzstan has been critical to this effort. Manas moves some 500 tons of cargo and 15,000 people per month into and out of Afghanistan.[1] In addition, there are reports that the United States and Russia may negotiate a deal that would make Russia the primary supplier of jet fuel for Manas refueling operations.[2] This policy is misguided and may jeopardize U.S. war efforts. The base is also a key node of America’s aerial effort over Afghanistan, refueling aircraft engaged in combat operations there. Thus, independence and stability in Kyrgyzstan—and reliability of Manas—are strategic factors that U.S. policymakers should take into account.
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Countering Turkey’s Strategic Drift

07-26-2010
For decades, Turkey and the United States cooperated in the Mediterranean, the Persian Gulf, Central Asia, and even Korea. However, Turkish and U.S. interests in the Balkans, Central Asia, the Caucasus, the Middle East, and the Persian Gulf have recently diverged. On its current trajectory, Turkey’s traditional strategic relationship with the West could devolve into a looser affiliation while Turkey enters into a closer alliance with Iran and other Middle Eastern powers hostile to U.S. leadership. The U.S., in concert with its European allies, needs to address the serious differences that are emerging.
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Russia-Iran Energy Road Map: Is Moscow Trying to Sit on Two Chairs?

07-16-2010
Russian and Iranian energy ministers Sergei I. Shmatko and Massoud Mir-Kazemi, signed a “roadmap” to future economic cooperation in the oil, gas, and petrochemical industries [2], according to ITAR-TASS, a Russian news-wire.
Just weeks after Russia supported United Nations sanctions against Iran for developing a rogue nuclear program, and just as President Dmitry Medvedev [3] demanded that Iran explains its nuclear program, the Russian Ministry of Energy stated that “sanctions will not hinder us in our joint cooperation” with Iran.
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Russian Espionage Undermines Obama’s Reset Policy

06-30-2010
On Monday, the U.S. Department of Justice announced that ten people have been arrested for being alleged undercover Russian spies. They were charged with conspiracy to act as an agent of a foreign government, as well as for money laundering. While not yet charged with espionage, nevertheless, they walked liked spies and talked like spies.
The eleventh man escaped, only to be apprehended in Cyprus. These were not the usual suspects acting under diplomatic cover and trying to recruit Americans at cocktail parties. The ten seem to be long term, deep cover agents (so-called “illegals”), most of them Russians.
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A Hard Look at the Obama-Medvedev Summit

06-23-2010
Russian President Dmitry Medvedev will visit the United States from June 22 through 24 at the invitation of U.S. President Barack Obama.  Topping the agenda will be the New START Treaty between the two countries, a treaty that is likely to arouse controversy in the Senate. The visit occurs after the U.S. was able to secure a vote by Russia on the United Nations Security Council to impose a fourth round of sanctions on Iran. The Obama Administration hails its “reset button” policy with Russia as an unqualified success. However, all aspects of the Russo-American relationship deserve an unflinching examination.
 
The New START treaty, signed by U.S. President Barack Obama and Russian President Dmitry Medvedev on April 8, clearly does not serve US strategic interest. Problems include limitations on U.S. ballistic missile defense and conventionally armed ICBM capabilities, as well as ambiguities surrounding verification.  Key U.S. Senators and national security experts have shown reservations, citing the treaty’s potential to limit U.S. missile defense options.  According to several credible reports, the Obama Administration is involved in secret talks with the Russians to derail or limit deployment of a strategic missile defense.
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What Senator Kerry is Missing on Obama’s Russian Reset

06-23-2010
As President Medvedev of Russia is coming to visit Barack Obama, the Administration’s spokesmen are desperately trying to convince us that the “reset” policy with the Russia has paid off. They argue that Russia and the United States have developed a real partnership, as demonstrated by the signature of the New START treaty, Russian support for the U.N.’s sanctions on Iran, and transit agreements to move troops and supplies into Afghanistan through Russian territory and air space.
Senator John Kerry (D-MA), the Chairman of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, thinks that a new era of U.S.-Russian cooperation [2] has dawned. A closer look at the bilateral relationship, however, reveals that the cost for this cooperation and its often symbolic success has been very high.
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The Chaos in Central Asia

06-15-2010
The bloody ethnic clashes occurring in southern Kyrgyzstan are the worst violence in the Fergana Valley, the heart of Central Asia, since 1990, when hundreds died in another outpouring of mutual hatred. The tragedy is that the current conflict, which risks turning the country into a failed state and tipping the entire region into chaos, could have been avoided.
The latest outburst started with a bar fight between young male Uzbeks and Kyrgyzs in Osh, a city in South Kyrgyzstan, last Thursday. It has since escalated into a series of ethnic pogroms, lootings and burnings. Currently 120 people have been reported killed, with some 1,500 wounded and more than 75,000 refugees—primarily Uzbek women and children—fleeing into Uzbekistan. The Red Cross says that when the dust settles, the dead may number more than 700, once the people now buried in mass graves are counted. Uzbekistan reportedly closed its border to the refugees, and a humanitarian disaster is looming.
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What’s at Stake in Kyrgyzstan?

04-14-2010

The Obama administration has been caught flat-footed once again—this time in Kyrgyzstan. The administration didn’t anticipate the spring riots escalating and sweeping away corrupt President Kurmanbek Bakiyev and his clan. The U.S. was perceived as being too close to Mr Bakiyev, yet it did not move fast enough to distance itself from him and recognize the temporary government led by Roza Otunbayeva.

While Ms. Otunbayeva—who has served as Kyrgyzstan’s foreign minister three times, as well as its ambassador to Washington and London—is a moderate, she is also close to Moscow. Once in office, she immediately sent her deputy to meetings in the Kremlin. One likely topic at those talks was the future of America’s Manas base—no small annoyance to Russia, which also has a military outpost in Kyrgyzstan.

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Kyrgyzstan’s Corruption Instigated Revolution

04-09-2010
What’s behind the revolution in Kyrgyzstan? Its people were fed up with the graft, nepotism and authoritarian ways of deposed president Kurmanbek Bakiyev. The irony is that Bakiyev rose to power riding the same wave of public discontent and revulsion. It enabled him to depose Askar Akayev, his equally corrupt predecessor, five years ago.
Today, however, the price of revolution is higher. Bakiyev’s shoot-to-kill orders on Wednesday left up to 100 people dead and 450 wounded in the capital of Bishkek. Only about five people died in the 2005 Tulip Revolution.
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START and Beyond: Obama Abandons US Power

04-07-2010
The New START Treaty that Presidents Obama and Medvedev are going to sign tomorrow in Prague sets the stage for the big show, the April 12-13 non-proliferation summit in Washington.
Both events are deeply flawed. Both are theater productions for Obama to push through his unrealistic agenda of “getting to zero”, i.e. attempting to achieve a world without nuclear weapons.
The New START is a déjà vu: in the 1980s, the Soviets threatened to withdraw from existing arms control treaties if US deployed missile defense. Now they are doing it again. Foreign Minister Lavrov is putting caveats [1] on the New START. Lavrov clearly stated that the Kremlin reserves the right to withdraw from the Treaty if they deem missile defense deployment in Romania threatening.
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Free Khodorkovsky

03-10-2010
President Obama has his hands full dealing with Russia. However, high on his agenda should be the release of Mikhail Khodorkovsky, Moscow’s most famous prisoner.
Success there would demonstrate the administration’s ability to promote freedom in Russia and around the world. It even might encourage the freeing of other political prisoners and a new wave of reforms that would make Russia a better partner for the U.S.
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Russian Anti-Americanism: A Priority Target for U.S. Public Diplomacy

02-24-2010
Russian anti-Americanism remains an entrenched and politically expedient phenomenon among the country’s governing elites. This may seem puzzling, given the rapprochement between Russia’s political leadership and the Obama Administration. Yet the idea of "resetting" the relationship between the two, as conceived by President Obama and Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, rests on the profound fallacy that the current Russian leadership and the United States share common values.
From the Kremlin’s perspective, anti-Americanism is a strategic tool for pursuing domestic and foreign policy goals. It has remained this way for almost the past 100 years. After World War II, Joseph Stalin denounced American "imperialism" as the enemy at the gate. In 1956, Nikita Khrushchev infamously threatened the United States: "We will bury you!" Since then, Soviet and Russian anti-Americanism has become a part of the Russian national psyche. Anti-Americanism is not confined to Russia alone. Russia is deliberately spreading this poisonous propaganda to neighboring countries through the Russian mass media, briefings, and conferences. This anti-Americanism also provides the glue that keeps together Russia’s de facto anti-American coalition with countries such as Iran and Venezuela.
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An Alarming Franco-Russian Arms Deal

02-16-2010

French President Nicolas Sarkozy last week approved the first sale of a Mistral-class assault ship to a foreign nation—Russia. Paris is also considering Moscow’s request for three more of these powerful vessels to be built under license in Russia. It’s the Kremlin’s first major warship purchase from the West since before World War I and the first major weapons sale to Russia by a NATO member.

And what’s Alliance’s reaction? A big yawn. Secretary-General Anders Fogh Rasmussen announced through a spokesman that NATO doesn’t consider Russia a threat. The Baltic nations and Georgia beg to differ. As Russia is not yet a trusted partner, the sale imperils the security of the NATO members and aspirants.

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After Ukraine Elections: What Is Next for U.S. Policy?

02-12-2010

On February 7, Ukrainians elected former Prime Minister Victor Yanukovych as president, a defeat for current Prime Minister Yulia Tymoshenko. The first round of elections, held on January 17, appeared to be free and fair. The U.S. embassy and OSCE concluded that the second round of runoff elections were free and fair as well. Ukrainian courts may review some of Tymoshenko’s vote-counting-related challenges, but according to Ukrainian experts, these claims are unlikely to change the outcome of the election.

Despite Yanukovych’s promises to improve ties with Moscow, the U.S. should develop its relations with the newly elected Ukrainian administration. The U.S. should also support the territorial integrity and sovereignty of Ukraine in the face of potential future Russian provocations, such as in the Crimea. It should also support NATO-Ukraine Commission efforts to develop relations with Kyiv, while encouraging key European states (Germany, France, and Italy) to accelerate Ukraine’s EU accession process.

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What Russia needs Most: Civil Society Engagement, Not Appeasement

02-12-2010
The Obama administration’s Russian “reset button” continues to malfunction.
The latest ignominy was a meeting last month between Russia and the United States designed by presidents of both countries to reset relations and explore new opportunities for partnership. Two days after the US-Russia Bilateral Presidential Commission’s Civil Society Working Group’s ineffective meeting, Moscow police dispersed a demonstration to support the right of assembly provided by the Russian Constitution and arrested one-third of the participants.
The US State Department issued a feeble “concern.”
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A Nonstarter on Arms Control

01-09-2010

The Obama administration has failed to complete the negotiation of a treaty to replace the Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty (Start), which expired on Dec. 5. The two superpowers are now in unchartered waters.

Moscow and Washington have stated that Start still applies voluntarily. This is false. First, without the consent of the U.S. Senate, expired treaties are null and void. Second, the Russians already kicked out U.S. inspectors, thus scrapping a key provision of the now-dead treaty. Third, on Tuesday, Dec. 29, Prime Minister Vladimir Putin upped the ante, linking U.S. missile defenses with the treaty signature. Speaking in Vladivostok later that week, Mr. Putin warned against U.S. “aggressiveness” and disruption of the nuclear balance in case the Obama administration deploys missile defenses.

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Russian Justice Still Headed in the Wrong Direction

11-29-2009

Harvest season is wrapping up in Russia, where the nation’s leaders are producing yet another bumper crop of irony.

Case in point: a recent online article, "Forward, Russia!" by President Dmitry A. Medvedev challenging Russians to fight corruption and create a workable modern justice system. Yet as this plea on Gazeta.ru hits home pages, Medvedev and his political mentor, Prime Minister Vladimir V. Putin, continue to countenance a second show trial of Yukos oil company founders Mikhail Khodorkovsky and Platon Lebedev.

Yukos was once the largest and most transparent Russian energy company. It was taken over by the government in 2003, and its assets were sold off to state-owned Rosneft.

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Dangerous Trajectories: Obama’s Approach to Arms Control Misreads Russian Nuclear Strategy

11-09-2009
Russia still considers the United States its "principal adversary." Moscow relies on its nuclear weapons to compensate for its inferiority in conventional power relative to the U.S., NATO, and China. Russian political and military leaders are still captives of czarist and Soviet geopolitical thinking and military traditions. U.S. policymakers need to understand this background and Russia’s Soviet-style negotiating tactics when negotiating realistic and verifiable arms control agreements with Russia. The Obama Administration’s wishful thinking and unilateral concessions will not produce a better nuclear treaty.
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Missile shield shift opens common ground for Russia and US

10-28-2009
After years squabbling over how the US could build an effective missile defense shield for Europe without scaring or offending Moscow, a growing number of experts suggest there may be an obvious way to square that circle: bring the Russians in and make them partners in a broad multi-national project.
President Barack Obama’s decision in September to shelve Bush-era plans to deploy strategic anti-missile interceptors in Poland and the Czech Republic has greatly mollified Moscow and opened a window of opportunity that might be used to change the whole security paradigm in Europe, some Russian experts say. They suggest it’s an idea whose time has come, and one that dovetails neatly with Mr. Obama’s embrace of the "Global Zero" campaign to eliminate nuclear weapons. Even though the US intends to go ahead with a toned-down missile shield for Eastern Europe, the plan to station tactical SM-3 anti-missile systems does not pose a threat to Russia’s aging nuclear missile deterrent, and thus – at least for the moment – Moscow is unperturbed.
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Biden Should Treat Poland with Respect

10-21-2009
In what appears to be an emerging ritual, Vice President Joe Biden is heading out to Poland, Romania and the Czech Republic ostensibly to talk missile defense. But in reality it looks like a mopping up operation after yet another faux pas by his Administration.
The last time Biden was on an apologize-and-salvage mission was when he ventured to Ukraine and Georgia in July, two weeks after his boss, President Barack Obama, was busy pushing reset buttons in Moscow. But Biden, a serial bumbler, had decided to give the Ukrainian leaders a didactic – and very public — lecture about how they should behave, and blurted in Tbilisi that the United States will not provide a “physical security guarantee to Georgia,” making a sensitive situation worse.
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Blood Brothers No More?

10-08-2009

Is President Dmitri Medvedev of Russia trying to come out from under the shadow of his long-time political mentor and former boss Prime Minister Vladimir Putin? So it would seem.

At a meeting last month with the Valdai Club of Russia experts at his suburban residence in Novo-Ogarevo, Putin — who had ceded the presidency to Medvedev and is now rumored to be planning to take it back — insisted that there had been no competition with Medvedev for the office and that there would be none when the next election is held in 2012.

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Are Russian Scientists Aiding Iran’s Nuclear Program?

10-08-2009

Last weekend, Israel leaked to the Sunday Times of London that Russian scientists are developing nuclear warheads for Iran. According to the leakers, that’s why Israeli prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu flew to Moscow for a “secret” visit September 7.

 

If true, this information may accelerate sanctions against Iran, or even precipitate military action to destroy the Iranian nuclear-weapons program. It may also blow President Obama’s Russia “reset” policy to smithereens.

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Velvet Reform

10-02-2009

As both Putin and Medvedev declared their interest in running in the 2012 elections, it became the main political scoop of that week. The Medvedev manifesto appeared as his electoral platform for a second presidential bid, and the first clear statement of his disagreements with Putin, his political mentor.

The article diagnosed severe ills in Russia, including corruption, dependence on oil and gas exports, lack of economic innovation, a lousy law enforcement and court system and a demographic decline. These all sound like a “liberal reformer” political platform.

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A Policy Agenda for the U.S.-Russia Congressional Caucus

10-01-2009
Last week, Congress launched the bipartisan Congressional Russia Caucus, which is chaired by Congressmen Tom Price (R-GA) and Dennis J. Kucinich (D-OH). The creation of the caucus could not be timelier, as the Obama Administration seems to have made unrequited concessions to Russia in missile defense, strategic arms talks, and the sale of Russian arms to Iran and Venezuela. Meanwhile, the U.S. said little regarding its violation of Ukrainian and Georgian sovereignty.
This paper provides a policy agenda for the U.S.-Russia Congressional Caucus that will best serve the U.S.’s vital national interests while cultivating this important relationship.
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Russian Pressure is Growing in Ukraine

09-15-2009

MOSCOW - Is the Obama Administration, busy pushing the “reset button” with Russia is about to suffer a geopolitical setback in Ukraine? When talking to the security experts here, it sure looks like it.

Ukraine is the key to making Russia an empire and, some here believe, a superpower once again.

In the run up to Ukrainian presidential elections in January 2010, the Kremlin has been ratcheting up pressure on President Victor Yushchenko, which Moscow regularly vilifies as pro-American and anti-Russian.

Ties between the two countries have increasingly frayed following the 2004 Orange Revolution, the 2006 and 2009 gas conflicts, and the war in Georgia last August. The relations have reached their lowest point in recent weeks, and there is a buzz in the Moscow policy elite of further mischief to come.

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Unrequited Concessions In Chess Is Bad Policy

09-14-2009

MOSCOW - In meetings with Prime Minister Vladimir Putin, Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov and the leading Russian foreign policy experts one thing becomes blatantly clear: the Obama Administration did not receive any quid-pro-quo for significant concessions it provided to Russia as a part of its “reset button” policy.

Since January of this year, the Obama Administration has resumed the START strategic arms talks, and is trying to complete them before the current nuclear weapons agreement expires on December 9th.

It looks like it will abandon ballistic missile deployment against Iran in Poland the Czech Republic, and adopt an inferior system instead. The Administration also signaled that it will listen to Russian ideas about reshaping European security architecture and at least for now it will not seriously push for Georgia and Ukraine to join NATO.

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A Warning From Good Friends

07-22-2009

The Obama administration has managed to open a wide gap between itself and some of America’s most reliable allies, those of Central Europe. In the recent Open Letter to the Obama Administration from Central and Eastern Europe, some of the most magnificent freedom fighters of the region, including former presidents Vaclav Havel of the Czech Republic and Lech Walesa of Poland, have warned that the U.S. should not take their countries and peoples for granted.

 

The authors of the Open Letter, who are among Europe’s most pro-American politicians and intellectuals, warn that NATO is perceived as becoming weaker, while the European Union is spreading its bureaucratic umbrella over the continent.

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Russia’s New Scramble for Africa

07-02-2009

The Kremlin has launched an ambitious project to restore Moscow’s past glory on the African continent. Policy makers in the U.S. and Europe need to understand that it’s happening -- and formulate an effective response -- before they find their own relationships with Africa changing in significant and problematic ways.

Russian President Dmitry Medvedev and more than a hundred Russian businessmen last week visited Egypt, Nigeria, Namibia and Angola on the longest tour of Africa a Russian leader has undertaken since the collapse of the Soviet Union. Unlike President Obama, who is going to Africa next week for a brief stop to talk about global warming, Mr. Medvedev and his team targeted oil, gas, diamonds and uranium. Mr. Medvedev is trying to score points before his G-8 meeting with Western leaders in Italy July 8-10.

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The Triumph of the Petro-state

06-19-2009

This year’s St Petersburg Economic Forum provided the backdrop for a deep division in the Russian leadership between those who, whether for pragmatic or ideological reasons, want integration with the West, and those who want to continue Russia’s trajectory as a petro-state. Unfortunately, the latter seem to be winning.

Clearly, the vice premier and chairman of Rosneft, Igor Sechin, Putin’s overseer of the energy sector, isn’t among the champions of US-Russian relations. His speech stole President Dmitry Medvedev’s thunder, causing some to speculate whether Putin deliberately sent Sechin to upstage the Russian president. Moreover, Putin himself did not deign to show up in the forum, preferring instead to berate the once richest man in Russia and uber-oligarch, Oleg Deripaska, on national TV. This makes for much better national politics and brings more popularity than any wonky speech at the Forum.

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Russian Paradox Forum

06-17-2009

Cold and rainy days at the St. Petersburg Economic Forum earlier this month followed each other like waves on the Baltic Sea. The economic forecasts pushed by Russian leaders, foreign dignitaries and gurus were just as bleak.

Russians believe this is a “W”-shaped recession, and, as President Dmitry Medvedev said, “It is too early to uncork the Champagne.” Yet the forum also highlighted a deepening rift between the approaches and the rhetoric of the Russian leadership.

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Russia’s Commodities Strategy

06-09-2009

The economic glitterati have descended on Russia’s "second capital." President Dmitry Medvedev, vice premiers and ministers, CEOs of Intel, Nissan, Coca-Cola and other Forbes 500 companies, and oligarchs are rubbing shoulders with superstar pundits such as Thomas L. Friedman and Nuriel Rubini. All have flocked to the St. Petersburg International Economic Forum.

Russians are all smiles after the purchase of 2 percent of Facebook, and state-owned Sberbank’s participation in acquisition of the General Motors Corp.’s German subsidiary Opel. The public discourse is all about diversification, innovation and coping with the global crisis. Mr. Medvedev says he wants innovation-based growth. But privately, many sotto voce discussions turn to the question: What is Russia’s global strategy?

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Russia’s Real Strategy Evident "near abroad"

06-09-2009

The economic and political megastars have descended on Russia’s "second capital" the 13th St Petersburg International Economic Forum. Here were Russian President Dmitry Medvedev; the presidents of Armenia and Azerbaijan locked in their eternal peace process; Russian vice premiers Igor Shuvalov and Igor Sechin (aka "the two Igor Ivanoviches"); and even the enigmatic former PM Victor Zubkov, who chaired a special grain congress.

Here also were ministers, the CEOs of Intel, Nissan, Coca Cola and other Forbes 50 companies, and oligarchs rubbing shoulders over canapés and mojitos in the Egyptian hall of the exquisite Hermitage museum with super-star pundits such as Thomas Friedman and economist Nouriel Roubini.

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Bye Bye, Eurasian Pipelines?

05-13-2009

The 1990s were a boom decade for Western energy companies tapping into Caspian oil and gas. Three important oil pipelines were built — the Caspian Pipeline Consortium (CPC), Baku-Supsa to the Black Sea, and the Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan (BTC) to the Mediterranean — as well as the Baku-Tbilisi-Erzurum (BTE) pipeline transporting gas to Turkey.

How times have changed! A host of factors today are turning proposed Westbound gas pipelines into a Eurasian pipe dream. The United States is focused elsewhere — on Iraq, Iran, Afghanistan, Pakistan and the Arab-Israeli diplomatic quagmire — and the Obama administration is advocating a massive shift to alternative energy. European energy policy is adrift.

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Eurasian pipelines- a forecaster’s nightmare

04-29-2009

The world’s leading experts who gathered at Columbia University’s Harriman Institute for the conference, "The Architecture of Energy Export System of the Caucasus and Central Asia," believe that future uncertainties jeopardize western control of much of Eurasian energy.

The 1990s were a boom decade for Caspian oil. Western companies moved into the region in force. There were three important pipeline projects: Western and national oil companies built the Caspian Pipeline Consortium (CPC); the Baku-Supsa (both to the Black Sea); and the crown jewel, the Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan (BTC), to the Mediterranean.

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Don’t be naive about Russia’s real aims

04-03-2009

At this week’s G-20 summit in London, President Obama met with Russian President Dmitry Medvedev for the first time. The two men share the burden of improving much-frayed relations between their two nations.

They agreed to launch negotiations for a Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty (START) and reexamine Russia’s accession to the World Trade Organization. The two countries will explore cooperation on Afghanistan and Iran, but agreed to disagree on ballistic missile defense. And Mr. Obama announced he will visit Russia in July. All positive-looking signs.

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Reversing habit of ’legal nihilism’

04-01-2009

President Obama and Russian President Dmitry Medvedev will meet Wednesday on the sidelines at the Group of 20 summit. Ironically, that’s one day after the trial of former Russian oilman Mikhail Khodorkovsky opens in Moscow. This trial symbolizes the deterioration of the rule of law in Russia.

While the two leaders - both former law professors - will have their hands full with economic and security matters, the rule of law also should figure prominently on their bilateral agenda. A healthy legal system is necessary to protect the rights of foreign and domestic investors and to facilitate the development of civil society and human rights.
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The Obama–Medvedev G-20 Meeting: The Agenda for the First Encounter

03-27-2009

On April 1, President Barack Obama will meet for the first time with Russian President Dmitry Medvedev at the G-20 summit in London. The two world leaders are expected to discuss a broad range of issues on the global and U.S.-Russian bilateral agenda, including U.S. plans for Afghanistan, Iran, and missile defense in Europe.

This engagement will build on Secretary of State Hillary Clinton’s March 6 infamous "reset button" meeting with Sergei Lavrov, Russia’s foreign minister. It also follows visits to Russia by "wise men" such as former Secretaries of State Henry Kissinger, George Shultz, and James Baker and the rollout of a new report produced by the Nixon Center and the Belfer Center of Harvard University and signed by former Senators Chuck Hagel, Gary Hart, and former National Security Advisor Brent Scowcroft.

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Russia and Eurasia: A Realistic Policy Agenda for the Obama Administration

03-27-2009

The Russian and Eurasian Policy Project was inaugurated to assist policymakers in the legislative and executive branches who will formulate U.S. policies toward Russia and Eurasia. The project’s task force is composed of leading experts on Russia and Eurasia who have extensive policy experience in Russian and Eurasian affairs and national security in both Republican and Democratic Administrations. This task force report is intended to be both prescrip­tive and descriptive in recommending policies that are realistic, possible to implement, and balanced.

The international security challenges confronting the Obama Administration are vast. In the coming years, President Barack Obama will need to deal with the troop redeployment from Iraq; an Iran that is opaque, unpre­dictable, and attempting to acquire nuclear weapons; a precarious and deteriorating Afghanistan; and an increas­ingly chaotic Pakistan.

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How the Obama Administration Should Engage Russia

03-19-2009

President Barack Obama has expressed a desire to constructively engage Russia and has also expressed concerns over Russia’s increasingly truculent behavior and the threat it poses to the current international system. These concerns are valid and the threat of a resurgent Russia is palpable.[1] Moscow’s efforts at carving out a "sphere of privileged interests" in Eurasia and rewrite the rules of European security have negative implications for U.S.–Russia relations, international security, the autonomy of the independent former Soviet states, and Europe’s independence.

Despite these circumstances, the Obama Administration seems to be rushing ahead with a "carrots-and-cakes" approach to the Kremlin, judging by Vice President Joe Biden’s recent speech at the annual Munich international security conference. In this speech, the Vice President outlined the Obama Administration’s foreign policy vision for the first time on the world stage and suggested that America push "the reset button" on relations with Russia.[2] Notably absent from this speech was any mention of any recent events in Eurasia.

 

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How the Obama Administration Should Deal with Russia’s Revisionist Foreign Policy

03-12-2009

President Barack Obama has expressed concerns over Russia’s increasingly truculent behavior and the threat it poses to the current international system. These concerns are valid and the threat of a resurgent Russia is palpable.[1] Moscow’s efforts at carving out a "sphere of privileged interests" throughout Eurasia and rewriting the rules of European security have negative implications for U.S.– Russia relations, international security, the autonomy of the newly independent former Soviet states, and Europe’s independence.

Despite these circumstances, the Obama Administration seems to be rushing ahead with a "carrots-and-cakes" approach to the Kremlin, judging by Vice President Joe Biden’s recent speech at the annual Munich international security conference. In this speech, the Vice President outlined the Obama Administration’s foreign policy vision for the first time on the world stage and suggested that America push "the reset button" on relations with Russia.[2] Notably absent from this speech was any mention of recent events in Eurasia.

While in Moscow, U.S. Under Secretary of State for Political Affairs William Burns mirrored this approach. Burns stated that the U.S. was willing to review "the pace of development" of its missile defense shield in Europe in exchange for Russian cooperation on dissuading Iran from pursuing a nuclear weapon, and downplayed the importance of a U.S. air base in Kyrgyzstan from which the U.S. military has just received an eviction notice.3 Other diplomatic efforts to thaw U.S.–Russian relations are underway as well.[3]

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Don’t push the reset button yet

02-25-2009

Vice President Joe Biden suggested at the Munich international security conference on Feb. 7 that America push "the reset button" on relations with Russia. But the Obama administration shouldn’t allow Moscow to pocket gains it has recently made in Eurasia. A "carrots-and-flowers" approach to the Kremlin won’t work.

The Kremlin is so concerned with expanding its sphere of influence in Eurasia that even today’s severe economic crisis - which has seen the ruble plunge 50 percent against the dollar and the Moscow stock market capitalization drop 80 percent - hasn’t slowed its push into the "near abroad."

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Russia regains key air base to project power in Caucasus

02-05-2009

As the dust over the August 2008 Russian-Georgian war settles, the extent of Russia’s geopolitical gain in South Caucasus and the Black Sea is becoming clearer.

Besides the naval base in the Abkhazian port of Ochamchire, of which we wrote recently, Moscow intends to restore the former Soviet air base Bombora in the Gudauta district of Abkhazia.

This is the largest military airfield in the southern Caucasus, boasting a runway that is 4 kilometers long. The runway ends less than 100 meters from the sea, allowing aircraft to take off at very low altitudes over the sea and proceed undetected by enemy radar in the initial phases of flight.

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Swords and Shields: Russia’s Abkhaz base plan

02-03-2009

Russia plans to establish a Black Sea naval base at the Abkhaz port of Ochamchire.

Ochamchire is some 60 kilometers southeast of the Abkhaz capital of Sukhumi, near the cease-fire line with Georgia. If permanently stationed there, Russian ships essentially would control the Georgian territorial waters all the way to the Turkish border.

The Georgian ports of Poti and Batumi would be well within striking distance of a base in Ochamchire, giving Russia a strong advantage in any future regional conflict.

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Swords and Shields: Russia bets on PAK FA

01-16-2009

Moscow continues to pursue a Sukhoi-based fifth-generation fighter. After five years of effort, Russia finally found an international partner for the development project. In 2007 India entered an agreement to jointly develop a fifth-generation fighter based on the Sukhoi.
 
The Sukhoi T-50 PAK FA -- standing for Advanced Frontline Aviation Aircraft System -- is a stealth-enabled fighter jet designed to compete with the American Lockheed Martin F-35 Lightning Joint Strike Aircraft and the Lockheed Martin/Boeing F-22 Raptor. Russian air force watchers already christened it "Raptorsky," after the F-22 Raptor, with which it is supposed to compete.

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Russia Bets on New Sukhoi Fighter to Match F-35

01-16-2009

Moscow continues to pursue a Sukhoi-based fifth-generation fighter. After five years of effort, Russia finally found an international partner for the development project. In 2007 India entered an agreement to jointly develop a fifth-generation fighter based on the Sukhoi.

The Sukhoi T-50 PAK FA -- standing for Advanced Frontline Aviation Aircraft System -- is a stealth-enabled fighter jet designed to compete with the American Lockheed Martin (NYSE:LMT) F-35 Lightning Joint Strike Aircraft and the Lockheed Martin/Boeing F-22 Raptor. Russian air force watchers already christened it "Raptorsky," after the F-22 Raptor, with which it is supposed to compete.

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European Security and Russia’s Natural Gas Disruption

01-08-2009

On January 1, 2009, Russia’s state monopoly OAO Gazprom began reducing gas supplies to Ukraine. Moscow and Kiev had failed to negotiate the price for natural gas, and the initial reduction affected six additional countries: Czech Republic, Turkey, Poland, Hungary, Romania, and Bulgaria. As problematic as this was, the crisis has extended beyond these initial victims. Not surprisingly, Russia is losing its reputation as a reliable supplier of gas to Europe. Motives for the Russian action include sending a signal to Europe that Ukraine should not be integrated into the Euro-Atlantic zone, but remain within the Russian sphere of influence.

The crisis demonstrates Europe’s strategic dependence on Russian gas and highlights the necessity to change this situation quickly in order to prevent Europe from being taken hostage by Russia.

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Russia Provokes U.S. with Venezuela sea exercises

01-07-2009

WASHINGTON, Jan. 7 (UPI) -- Russia held joint naval exercises with Venezuela late last year to demonstrate its growing strategic reach and political clout, particularly in Latin America, which many consider the traditional U.S. sphere of influence.

Provocative? Yes. But Washington and Moscow have restrained the verbal squabbling. Many observers take that as a sign that both sides hope for improved bilateral relations under the new Obama administration.

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Will Son of Satan protect Mother Russia?

12-19-2008

By Ariel Cohen

WASHINGTON, Dec. 19 (UPI) -- As UPI reported, at the end of November Russia successfully test-launched its new-generation land- and sea-based ballistic missile designed to penetrate U.S. missile defense systems such as the one planned for deployment in Poland and the Czech Republic. The new Russian missile can be equipped with up to 10 warheads, including decoys, to overwhelm or mislead American sensors.

On Nov. 26, 2008, the Russian military reported a third successful test of the new land-based RS-24 intercontinental multiple-warhead, nuclear-capable missile (possible NATO designation SS-X-29).

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Russia’s Play in Uncle Sam’s Neighborhood

12-18-2008

Despite the raging economic crisis and collapse of oil prices, Russia continues to push its global diplomatic offensive, which has overt anti-American overtones. At the end of November, President Dmitry Medvedev paid a week-long visit to Latin America  The trip demonstrated Russia’s growing strategic reach and political clout in a region considered a U.S. sphere of influence. The question remains whether the deep economic recession and attempts of rapprochement with the incoming Obama Administration are likely to cool the Kremlin’s ardor for geopolitical gambling in 2009.

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Is civilian control of Russia’s nuclear arsenal at risk?

12-12-2008

WASHINGTON, Dec. 12 (UPI) -- Russian generals have long felt they should be the ones to set military policy. They have trouble accepting civilian authority -- be it from President Dmitry Medvedev or Defense Minister Anatoly Serdyukov. They derisively describe the minister as a former furniture salesman and tax man, yet Serdyukov knows where the brass keep their money.

Russian Prime Minister and former President Vladimir Putin, a former intelligence officer and Russia’s "national leader," may be a different story because of his dominating personality and popularity. Yet Soviet-era military retirees already have challenged him directly.

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Russia’s generals fight Putin to conserve corruption

12-11-2008

WASHINGTON, Dec. 11 (UPI) -- Implementing military reform is a challenging task for Russian generals. Understanding what’s going on is daunting for outside observers. Moscow’s military leaders seem to think that the best way to proceed is to keep their dirty laundry out of public view.

The Russian General Staff has classified reform discussions in order to hide broad discontent among the top generals. It’s also a good way to conceal possible poor reform planning and the lack of a clear national security strategy.

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Russa deploys ship, aircraft to show force in Arctic

12-01-2008

WASHINGTON, Dec. 1 (UPI) -- The Arctic Ocean is quickly re-emerging as a strategic area where vital U.S. interests are at stake. The geopolitical and geo-economic importance of the arctic region is rising rapidly, and its mineral wealth will likely transform the region into a booming economic frontier in the 21st century.

The arctic coasts and continental shelf are estimated to hold large deposits of oil, natural gas, methane hydrate -- natural gas -- clusters, and large quantities of valuable minerals.

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Russia focuses warships and weapons systems in Arctic

11-21-2008

WASHINGTON, Nov. 21 (UPI) -- The resumption of Cold War-style patrols and increased naval presence in the Arctic Ocean by the Russian navy and air force is in keeping with the Russian Federation’s more forward posture of recent years.

The new policy and stepped-up deployment of aircraft and warships in the Arctic Ocean region is also intended to increase the Kremlin’s leverage vis-a-vis territorial claims in the Far North. The Russian Federation is taking a dual approach of projecting military power while invoking international law.

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Europe Anti-Missile Defense System: Standing Up to Russia’s Threats

11-20-2008

The day after Barack Obama won the 2008 U.S. presidential election, Russian President Dmitry Medvedev announced the first real test for the U.S. President-elect. In his State of the Federation speech, Medvedev threatened to station Iskander short-range nuclear-capable missiles in the Kaliningrad exclave if the U.S. proceeds with deploying anti-missile defense systems in Poland and the Czech Republic.

Medvedev softened his rhetoric following discussions with French President Nicolas Sarkozy, instead offering to hold off on the missile deployment in exchange for U.S. participation in a European security conference and if, as Sarkozy put it, there is "no more talk of anti-missile protection systems" until the conference.[1]

Sarkozy later revised his statement, admitting that Poland and the Czech Republic have a sovereign right to pursue missile defense. On November 17, however, NATO, of which France is a member, reiterated its support for a planned U.S. missile shield in Europe--after Sarkozy had said it would bring no extra security to the Continent. A NATO spokeswoman said the alliance’s position--formulated at the Bucharest Summit in April 2008--had not changed. It was at the Bucharest Summit that NATO leaders, including Sarkozy, endorsed U.S. plans to deploy the missile shield in Poland and the Czech Republic.

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Russia focuses weapon systems on Arctic wealth

11-06-2008

WASHINGTON, Nov. 6 (UPI) -- The arctic is quickly re-emerging as a strategic area where vital U.S. interests are at stake. The geopolitical and geo-economic importance of the arctic region is rising rapidly, and its mineral wealth will likely transform the region into a booming economic frontier in the 21st century. The arctic coasts and continental shelf are estimated to hold large deposits of oil, natural gas, methane hydrate clusters and large quantities of valuable minerals.

Russia recognizes the multifaceted potential of the arctic and is moving rapidly to assert its national interests. Moscow has submitted a claim to the U.N. Convention on the Law of the Sea to an area of 460,000 square miles -- the size of Germany, France and Italy combined. The Kremlin is pursuing its interests by projecting military power into the region and by using diplomatic instruments such as the Law of the Sea Treaty. Russia made a show of planting its flag on the arctic seabed in August 2007 and has resumed strategic bomber flights over the arctic for the first time since the end of the Cold War.

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Russia’s Navy Protects Syria’s Missles

10-16-2008

Until Russia can revitalize its naval forces to a much larger degree, its deployments to the Mediterranean contribute more to symbolic and diplomatic activity than being a viable military counterweight to NATO in the region. Yet the Black Sea Fleet in the Med is a significant show of force and a diplomatic irritant and a potential threat to shipping in the Suez Canal and to America’s ally Israel.

The increased Russian naval presence in the region means that the Kremlin is seeking to cultivate Syria as a close regional ally, and is looking to secure additional bases for the Black Sea Fleet besides its current base in the Black Sea port of Sevastopol.

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Valdai Club Highlights Russia’s Modernization Dilemma

09-15-2008

The fifth annual Valdai Club meeting took place against the backdrop of the conflict in the Caucasus and Russia’s recognition of the secessionist republics Abkhazia and South Ossetia. The Valdai Club, of which this author is a member, brings together policy experts and journalists from Russia and the world for discussions with the Russian leadership.

Five days of meetings with Prime Minister Vladimir Putin, President Dmitry Medvedev, Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov, and First Deputy Prime Minister Igor Shuvalov, among others, indicate that the Russian leadership finds itself on the horns of a dilemma: its ambitious and confrontational foreign policy clashes with its declared domestic modernizing priorities.

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Dealing With Russia

09-14-2008

On Aug. 8, Russia decided to rewrite the rules of post-World War II European security. It repudiated the Helsinki Pact of 1975, which recognized the sanctity of borders in Europe, and violated the sovereignty and territorial integrity of NATO aspirant Georgia, whose troops had attacked South Ossetia the day before. In the process, Russia also tore up its own peacekeeping mandate in South Ossetia and Abkhazia.

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Russian Forces in the Georgian War: Preliminary Assessment and Recommendations

08-20-2008

While all the facts of last week’s Russian-Georgian war are not clear, enough information--including eyewitness accounts--has been reported in the media to draw initial conclusions about the performance of Russian military forces and the implications of these operations for U.S. defense policies. Unquestionably, the war is a reminder that "conventional" military operations as an instrument of modern combat are far from obsolete. The U.S. and its allies must retain a robust conventional capacity to deter aggression and assist in the defense of its treaty obligations to NATO and other allies.

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Saving Georgia

08-12-2008

Moscow remains deaf to pleas from Washington and European capitals to cease aggression against its neighbor, Georgia. Last week, as the Olympic Games opened, the tragic and ominous conflict between Georgia and Russia erupted. On Thursday, August 7, South Ossetian separatists, supported by Moscow, escalated their machine gun and mortar fire attacks against neighboring Georgian villages. This past Thursday and Friday, Georgia attacked the separatist capital Tskhinvali with artillery to suppress fire. Tskhinvali suffered severe damage, thus providing the pretext for Moscow’s long-planned invasion of Georgia.

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Alexander Solzhenitsyn: The Passing of a Titan

08-05-2008

Alexander Solzhenitsyn (1918–2008) was a titan of 20th century Russian literature and politics. He survived the Stalinist purges, World War II, eight years in the Gulag, Communist denunciation, and even a battle with cancer. After spending 18 years exiled in America, he made a triumphant return to his homeland.

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Putin’s "Zaibatsu" - The Russian Technology Property Grab

08-01-2008

July 2008 will mark a momentous month in the history of Russian business. This is when Sergey Chemezov, a close associate of Prime Minister Vladimir Putin, consolidated control over 426 additional enterprises that are now a part of the Russian Technologies (Rostechnologii) empire. A global, state-owned Russian weapons-and-metals holding has been born. Yet its birth has triggered the fiercest fight among the Russian elite since Dmitry Medvedev was anointed president.

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The West Should Unite in Support of Georgia

04-30-2008

In the last few days, Moscow has beefed up its "peacekeeping force" in the breakaway Abkhazia on the Black Sea, claiming it is protecting Russian citizens, who are the majority population of Abkhazia. Furthermore, Russian troops are amassing on the de-facto Abkhazia-Georgia border. The Caucasus may be on the brink of a war. At the same time, Russia has accused Georgia of planning to invade Abkhazia, accusations that sound distinctly hollow under the circumstances.

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The Real World: Putin in Libya

04-18-2008

Russian President Vladimir Putin began a two-day visit to Libya on April 16, the first by a Russian president to the formerly shunned country. The event was hailed by Libya’s veteran leader Moammar Gadhafi as "historic, strategic and very important." Gadhafi further stated "…given that we are both producers of gas and oil, we will work together to defend our interests."

 

Energy deals and proposals featured prominently during Putin’s visit. Libya is believed to hold the largest oil reserves in Africa, having also the fourth largest reserves of natural gas.

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The Sochi Bush-Putin Summit: Last Chance to Improve Relations

04-01-2008

This coming weekend, Presidents George W. Bush and Vladimir Putin will meet for their final summit, to be held in the Russian resort of Sochi on the Black Sea at Putin’s invitation. This will mark the end of an era in a complicated relationship. The question is: Will the two leaders leave the scene while U.S.-Russian relations are at their lowest point since the Cold War, or will they attempt to rescue them?

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Management Reshuffle?

02-28-2008

Last December Russian President Vladimir Putin chose Dmitry Medvedev, a first deputy prime minister, to succeed him in the country’s presidency. March 2 presidential elections are anti-climactic, as they are going to ratify this choice, and as Mr. Medvedev is the only candidate likely to win.
 
Like in 2004, these are elections are without a real choice, in which one voter has cast his crucial ballot - Mr. Putin himself. The elections may have a democratic facade, but not substance.

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Central Asia: A Major Worry for US Intelligence Agencies

02-28-2008

Central Asia is a major area of concern for US intelligence agencies, according to an annual threat assessment presented recently by Director of National Intelligence Michael McConnell.

McConnell discussed the Annual Threat Assessment -- a document representing the consensus view of 16 US intelligence agencies that covers all global security threats facing Washington -- with US senators on February 5. While Iraq remains an enduring source of concern, the reviving Islamic radical/terrorist threat in Afghanistan and in the tribal areas of Pakistan topped the list of security worries.

While the Threat Assessment is sober-minded on many points, it avoids one obvious conclusion involving Russia’s strategic intentions; by re-emphasizing military and economic power, and challenging the West, Moscow, aided and abetted by Teheran, is seeking to change the post-Communist balance of power in Europe, the Middle East, and in the world at large, and is challenging American post-Cold War hegemony. Whether it will succeed or not is a different question. It’s also up in the air whether American policy makers sufficiently comprehend the Kremlin’s capabilities and intentions, and, if they do, whether they can muster the political will that can help frustrate Russian plans.

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Russia on the March: The Return of the Red Square Parades

02-12-2008
As Yogi Berra once said, “This is déjà vu all over again.” On May 9, heavy military equipment will once again roll down Moscow’s Red Square for the Victory Day military parade. Tanks, missiles, and 6,000 troops will be joined overhead by Su-27 and MiG-29 fighter aircraft and military helicopters. The last time Moscow saw such a display of military hardware on Red Square was November 1990, before the collapse of the Soviet Union.
 
The world should take notice of Russia’s increasing militarism. The parade is designed to generate nostalgia among the Russian people and to signal U.S., NATO, and Russia’s neighbors that Russia’s power is back. Most importantly, it illustrates President Vladimir Putin’s emphasis on the military and security services at the expense of modern, democratic institutions.
 
Russia is back on the world stage with all the attributes of power, including wealth and military might, for all to see. The next Administration will have its hands full dealing with resurgent Moscow.
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Russia trails U.S. in pursuit of fifth generation jet

01-15-2008

Russia lags behind the United States in aerospace research and development. It has yet to produce decent competitors to America’s two new, fifth-generation fighter jets, the Lockheed Martin (NYSE:LMT) F-35 Lightning Joint Strike Fighter and the Lockheed Martin/Boeing F-22 Raptor.

The main Russian rivals to the Lockheed Martin F-35 Lightnings are the Mikoyan-Gurevich MiG-35 (NATO designation Fulcrum F) and the Sukhoi Su-35 (NATO designation Flanker). The Mikoyan-Gurevich MiG-35 is an upgrade of the MiG-29M/M2 and the MiG-29OVT. Both are fourth-generation jets.

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Russian Succession: From Putin...To Putin

01-06-2008

Dmitry Medvedev’s  endorsement as a presidential candidate by four pro-Putin political parties and by Vladimir Putin himself confirms not only that Putin will play a pivotal role in Russian politics after he steps down but that he will remain the number one politician of Russia for years to come.

The Bush Administration should lay the groundwork for engaging Russia on important issues, for the benefit of the next U.S. President. Specifically, the U.S. should press forward with the next round of sanctions on Iran in the U.N. Security Council, where the Russian vote is crucial, and continue discussions over the Kosovo independence and negotiations on deployment of the missile defense interceptors in Europe.

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Domestic Factors Driving Russian Foreign Policy

11-19-2007

Russia"s foreign policy assertiveness, funded by revenues from natural resources, makes many believe that a new energy empire is on the rise. The country today is ruled by post-Soviet security and military elites that have internalized the jingoistic values of the Russian Empire and the Soviet Union. These elites view the outside world almost exclusively through the lens of economic and military might. They also use foreign policy as a tool to buttress domestic sup­port and to foster a perception that Russia is sur­rounded by enemies at a time when its democratic legitimacy is deteriorating.

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Europe’s Strategic Dependence on Russian Energy

11-05-2007

Russia is consolidating its grip on oil and gas—the economic lifeblood of Europe. Moscow is pursuing a comprehensive strategy that could increase Europe"s political and economic dependence on Russian energy. Such dependence could negatively affect trans­atlantic relations, common values, goals, strategic objectives, and security policies. Without a policy dialogue and coordination between Washington and European capitals, Europe"s strategic drift away from the United States will continue unabated.

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U.S. Strategy in the Black Sea Region

12-13-2006

U.S. interests in the Black Sea area—energy transit, security, counterterrorism, proliferation of weapons of mass destruction (WMD), and the traffic in drugs, weapons, and people—have taken on particular significance since 9/11. The Black Sea basin is a strategic region bordering the Greater Middle East and a key transit route for Caspian oil. The U.S. needs a comprehensive regional policy to protect American interests and security.

The Black Sea Nexus. The Black Sea region is a patchwork of overlapping civilizations and spheres of influence.....

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The North European Gas Pipeline Threatens Europe’s Energy Security

10-26-2006

Russia is building a strategic new pipeline to Europe that will affect European energy security for years to come. Called the North European Gas Pipe­line (NEGP), it will cross the Baltic Sea, directly con­necting Russia to Germany, and will bypass the Soviet-era, land-based energy transit infrastructure that traverses several former Soviet Bloc countries, including Ukraine, Belarus, and Poland.

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U.S. Policy and the Georgian-Russian Crisis

10-10-2006

Amid great power fretting over North Korea’s nuclear test and continuing Iranian truculence against the West, Russia escalated its confrontation with the neighboring Georgia. Moscow is now using Georgia’s arrest of four alleged Russian intelligence officers two weeks ago as a pretext to escalate its conflicts with Tbilisi. This is a dangerous development for the West, and specifically the United States, which could see its influence in the Caucasus region crumble if Russia is successful in forcing Georgia into its sphere of influence. U.S. policy must walk a fine line of encouraging settlement of the current dispute without becoming a liability through over-involvement.

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Putin’s Legacy and United Russia’s New Ideology

06-01-2006

“The Party has been, and remains, the main organizing and coordinating force capable of leading the people along the path of profound Socialist renewal.…”

— Mikhail Gorbachev

With the fall of the USSR, the Russian post-Soviet elite was demoralized by the collapse of Soviet power and sought a new direction. For a time, ideol­ogy took a back seat to market reforms, competition, and repudiation of government control. However, “men of the state” and “men of force”—known in Russian as “derzhavniki” and “siloviki”—have reversed this trend.

 

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Ukraine’s Parliamentary Elections: What Next?

05-11-2006

On March 26, Ukraine’s voters elected 450 members to the Verkhovna Rada, Ukraine’s parliament, from an array of 45 parties and blocs. Charles Tannock, a British Member of the European Parliament (MEP), who oversaw the Parliament’s election observers, said Ukraine had passed an important test of democracy in an “exemplary” fashion. Now the difficult task of forming a ruling coalition must begin. No matter who is the next prime minister, Washington should continue to support liberalization in Ukraine and the country’s membership in the World Trade Organization and NATO.

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Preventing a Russian-Georgian Military Confrontation

04-30-2006

The pending appeal of Eduard Kokoity, leader of the secessionist territory of South Ossetia, to the Russian Federation’s Constitutional Court to allow his territory to join Mother Russia could trigger destabilization in the Caucasus, sparking a Russian-Georgian military confrontation and unpredictable consequences for the region and the world. The tasks ahead for Georgia’s leaders are perilous, and they need as much assistance as Washington and other Western allies are able to offer.

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Flawed Presidential Elections in Belarus: How the West Should Respond

04-16-2006

On March 19, Belarus, the last dictatorship in Europe, will hold presidential elections. These elections occur in an atmosphere of political repression, and in all likelihood, President Aleksander Lukashenko will win an easy victory, thanks to thuggish tactics, a crooked electoral system, and a large slush fund courtesy of Russia. With Belarus’s terrible human rights record and its intimate relations with other rogue regimes, including Iran, Syria, and Saddam Hussein’s Iraq, the West cannot be complacent. The United States and the European Union should take steps to strengthen the Belarusian opposition and prod the Lukashenko regime to change course.

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U.S. Should Warn Russia Over Its "Soviet" Middle East Policy

04-06-2006

In recent weeks, Russia has distanced itself from positions on the Middle East that it once held in common with the U.S. and the European Union. In February, Russia negotiated with Iran to establish a joint uranium-enrichment venture to supply nuclear reactor fuel to the Islamic Republic. As well, it is selling anti-aircraft missiles to Syria. And on March 3, a high ranking delegation of the Hamas terrorist organization visited Moscow at Russian President Vladimir Putin’s invitation.

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Russia’s Gas Attack on Ukraine: An Uneasy Truce

01-04-2006

In a compromise deal struck on January 4, the price that Ukraine pays for Russian gas will rise from $50 to $230 per one thousand cubic meters. This is less of a blow to Ukraine than it seems. The country will switch to Turkmenistan as its principal gas supplier and also purchase gas from Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan for about $95 per thousand cubic meters for five years—about a third of the price that Western Europe pays for gas. Ukraine will still buy Russian gas, but much less than in the past.

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Competition over Eurasia: Are the U.S. and Russia on a Collision Course?

10-24-2005

Russia and the United States continue to bicker over the post-Soviet space. They often remind one of an old married couple who forever exchange accusations but never reach a common ground. Do they need counseling? Are they moving towards divorce? The potential for Russia and the U.S. to pursue a parallel foreign policy in the region--one based on interests, not emotions--is greater than many think. This, however, is often difficult to achieve.

 

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Sino-Russian Military Maneuvers: A Threat to U.S. Interests in Eurasia

09-30-2005

Peace Mission 2005, the unprecedented Sino-Rus­sian joint military exercises held on August 18-25, should raise concerns in Washington. The war games are a logical outcome of the Sino-Russian Treaty of Good Neighborly Friendship and Cooperation, signed in 2001, and the shared worldview and grow­ing economic ties between the two giant powers.

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Uzbekistan’s Eviction Notice: What Next?

08-18-2005

On July 31, Uzbek President Islam Karimov served notice on the Pentagon that the U.S. should vacate the Karshi–Khanabad military base (K-2 in military parlance) within six months. In the post- 9/11 era, this is the first time that a U.S. ally has not only abandoned the battlefield—as Spain did in Iraq—but also shown American servicemen the door. After years of complaining that the United States has not done enough to counter terrorist threats, Karimov did what his Islamist foes have demanded all along: He demanded an end to the American “infidel” presence in Uzbekistan.

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Time to Relaunch Ukraine’s Economic Policy

06-14-2005

Ukraine is an important American geostrategic pri­ority in Eastern Europe. Many U.S. policymakers and experts believe that Ukraine’s integration into the glo­bal economy, and Europe in particular, will change the geopolitical balance in Eastern Europe and could trigger positive changes in other post-Soviet states. Above all, it will benefit the people of Ukraine. There­fore, the outcome of Ukrainian reforms is important for U.S. foreign policy.

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Democratization Challenges: Has Mr. Karimov Overstayed His Welcome?

06-10-2005

As the U.S. and Israel withdrew their non-essential personnel and diplomatic families from their embassies in Uzbekistan due to "specific" terror threats, the U.S. policy in Central Asia seems to be facing a fundamental challenge: How the Bush Administration can promote democratization without giving up strategic priorities of the war on Islamist terror.

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The Khodorkovsky Verdict: A Setback for U.S.-Russian Relations

06-02-2005

A harsh, nine-year sentence meted out by a Russian court on May 31 against Mikhail Khodorkovsky, former owner of the YUKOS oil company, and his partner Platon Lebedev sends a chilling signal to Western and Russian investors and could disrupt U.S.-Russian relations. President George W. Bush, in an unusually blunt language, said that it seemed that Khodorkovsky “had been adjudged guilty prior to having a fair trial.” Unfortunately, that is a fair assessment.

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UZBEKISTAN: A POLICY PROVING GROUND FOR WASHINGTON

05-31-2005

The Andijan events in Uzbekistan have sharpened the debate among policy makers in Washington over whether American support for Uzbek President Islam Karimov helps or hurts US national security interests. Many in Washington have grown disenchanted with Karimov’s authoritarian methods. However, some continue to view the Uzbek leader as a bulwark against Islamic radicals in Central Asia.

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Challenge in Uzbekistan

05-18-2005

With more than 500 dead in Andijan, a city in the impoverished and overpopulated Fergana Valley, a hotbed of Islamic extremism in Uzbekistan, the face of Central Asia has changed forever. Brittle relations between the government of President Islam Karimov and his people are bloodstained.

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The Uzbekistan Dilemma

05-13-2005

With over 500 dead in Andijian, a hotbed of Islamic extremism in the impoverished and overpopulated Fergana Valley in Uzbekistan, the face of Central Asia is changed. Akramia, an allegedly radical Islamic group, appears to be behind the uprising against President Islam Karimov’s government. The government’s heavy-handed tactics and deliberate provocation by Akramia appear to be at fault for the massacre.

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On the road to Moscow

05-08-2005

President George W. Bush’s visit to Latvia, Russia and the Republic of Georgia underscores how much the geopolitical landscape changed 13 years after the collapse of the Soviet Empire.

In Riga, Mr. Bush will address leaders of Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania. These are America’s new allies -- members of North Atlantic Treaty Organization. They are also members of the European Union. Russia is an ex-rival and a strategic partner, a vague term indeed. Georgia (and neighboring Azerbaijan) are emerging allies.

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President Bush’s Messages to the Baltic States, Russia, and Georgia

05-04-2005

President George W. Bush’s visit to Latvia, Russia, and Georgia underscores how much the geopolitical landscape in that part of the world has changed in the 13 years since the collapse of the Soviet Empire. In Riga, Bush will speak to the leaders of Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania, now members of North Atlantic Treaty Organization and European Union and strong allies of America. Bush’s second stop, Russia, once a rival, is now a strategic partner—an appropriately vague term, to be sure. Georgia, the President’s final stop, and neighboring Azerbaijan are emerging allies. The President must convey different messages to the people and leaders of each country, while promoting American foreign policy and security interests.

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North Caucasus at Risk

04-10-2005

Since the March 8 death of Aslan Maskhadov, former president of Chechnya and supreme commander of Chechen militant forces, Russia has escalated its anti-terrorism operations in the North Caucasus region.
Last Tuesday, Russian security forces apprehended Adam Jabrailov, a Chechen terrorist responsible for capturing, killing and beheading four Red Cross workers in 1996.

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From Lemon Revolution to Lemonade?

03-24-2005

The people of Kyrgyzstan have spoken -- and acted.


As they storm presidential palace and government buildings in the capital Bishkek, the government is paralyzed and impotent. The resignation of President Askar Akaev is the best way out of the crisis. Otherwise, the country will be facing a civil war, a bloody uprising, a possible disintegration, or all of the above. What’s more, turmoil in Kyrgyzstan may destabilize its large neighbors, Uzbekistan and Kazakhstan, with catastrophic consequences of inter-ethnic and political violence.

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Helping Kyrgyzstan’s Democratic Revolution

03-24-2005

The people of Kyrgyzstan have spoken—and acted. On Thursday, they stormed presidential headquarters and government buildings in the capital Bishkek in response to rigged parliamentary elections, and the government appears to be losing its grip on power. The Supreme Court has since annulled the elections, and the country is likely to return to the polls shortly. Still, Kyrgyzstan may face the prospects of civil war and possible disintegration if President Askar Akaev does not resign. In turn, turmoil in Kyrgyzstan could bring inter-ethnic and political violence to its larger neighbors, Uzbekistan and Kazakhstan, and lead to their destabilization. To prevent this outcome and win another victory for democracy, the U.S. and its allies convince President Akaev to step down—and soon.

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The Other Inauguration

01-21-2005

President Victor Yuschenko’s inauguration on Sunday January 23 is not the end of the road: it is the beginning of a fundamentally new relationship between the US and the West, and Ukraine. Washington needs to throw a lifeline to Kyiv to complete the historic transformation and to build the democratic and free Ukraine of the 21st century.

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The Lessons of Ukraine: Russia’s Growing Influence in Eurasia

11-12-2004

The outcome of the Ukrainian presidential elections could dramatically increase Moscow’s influence in Eurasia. If former Prime Minister Victor Yanukovich (the Kremlin’s preferred candidate) is elected, the Kremlin would virtually control the Ukrainian presidency. That would allow Russia to exercise greater geopolitical influence in Ukraine and would increase Moscow’s political momentum in the rest of Eurasia.

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Russia’s Gravitational Pull in Eurasia Stands to Strengthen After Ukraine Election

11-10-2004

The outcome of Ukraine’s contentious presidential vote could have far-reaching ramifications for the US-Russian geopolitical competition in Central Asia and the Caucasus. An election victory by Prime Minister Viktor Yanukovich, who is widely viewed as Russia’s preferred candidate, could embolden Kremlin efforts to enhance its position in the energy-rich Caspian Basin.

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U.S.-Russian Security Cooperation After Beslan

10-25-2004

On September 1, 2004, the first day of school, a multiethnic group of over 30 radical Islamist terror­ists, including two female suicide bombers and some Chechens, took more than 1,000 children, teachers, and parents hostage in Beslan, North Ossetia. The ter­rorists deployed explosives around the school, hang­ing them from basketball hoops in the gym, where most of the children were held. This was the fifth mas­sive hostage-taking event in Russia since 1995, and it ended in tragedy. Shamil Basaev, leader of the radical Islamist wing of the Chechen separatist movement, has taken responsibility for the massacre.

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RUSSIA’S SOVIET NOSTALGIA POSES SECURITY THREAT

09-29-2004

Much has been reported about Russian President Vladimir Putin’s September 6 meeting with Western journalists and academics, just days after the tragedy at Beslan. What many of the reports have missed, however, was Putin’s overt questioning of post-Soviet borders.

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Going Soviet: Putin and the Beslan Response

09-24-2004

Two days after the Beslan tragedy ended in a fiery blood bath, a group of Western experts and journalists, including this author, met with Vladimir Putin for tea in his state residence in Novo-Ogarevo. It was a grim affair.

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Putin at War: Unscripted

09-20-2004

Three days after the tragedy of Beslan ended, we sat for over three and a half hours with Vladimir Putin. Between picking up the pieces of the worst Russian terror attack to date and planning a massive power consolidation, the energetic Russian leader still found time to meet with leading Western scholars and journalists, answering our questions at length, totally unscripted.

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A Strategy to Democratize Belarus

03-30-2004

As the October 2004 parliamentary elections in Belarus are becoming a priority for democratic forces in the country and for Western friends of Belarussian democracy, it is the time to act.

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Putin Sacks the Cabinet

02-26-2004

On February 24, three weeks before the March 14 Presidential elections, Vladimir Putin dramatically fired his Prime Minister, Mikhail Kasyanov, as well as his entire cabinet. All the world knows who the next Russian President will be, but the real game in Moscow today is: who will Mr. Putin appoint to be the next Prime Minister? Under the law, the President will nominate the Prime Minister within two weeks after the elections.

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Facing the Russian Rhetoric in Eurasia

02-25-2004

Vladimir Putin sent shivers down the spine of CIS leaders on February 12 when he declared the demise of the Soviet Union a "national tragedy on an enormous scale." The nostalgia for the collapse of the Soviet empire was genuine and not pre-election rhetoric: "The breakup of the Soviet Union is a national tragedy on an enormous scale," from which "only the elites and nationalists of the republics gained," Putin said in a nationally televised speech. Is Russia going to operationalize this nostalgia? Will a new robust policy in the CIS go beyond traditional diplomacy? What responses CIS states will pursue? And what options Washington has to counter this rhetoric?

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The Kremlin That Killed Kyoto

12-16-2003

MOSCOW, Russia -- Andrey Illarionov, Russian President Vladimir Putin’s libertarian economic adviser, almost single-handedly engineered the Kremlin’s commitment to kill the Kyoto Protocol -- a climate control treaty heavily promoted by the European Union and environmentalist movement. UN Secretary General Koffi Annan called upon Putin last Thursday to ratify the treaty. Without the Russian and American signatures, the Protocol is dead in the water.

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Russian Duma Elections: How the U.S. Should Respond to "Controlled Democracy"

12-12-2003

The tectonic political shift that occurred in Sunday’s parliamentary elections will make Russia more difficult diplomatically and less hospitable to foreign investment. The biggest winner was President Vladimir Putin, whose United Russia party won 37 percent of the vote and, together with its allies, has close to the two-thirds majority necessary to change the constitution, including extending the president’s term in office beyond 2008.

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Russia’s "Controlled Democracy" Strikes Back

12-11-2003

The tectonic plate shift in Russian politics, which occurred in parliamentary elections Sunday would make Russia diplomatically more prickly and less hospitable to foreign investment.

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Common Economic Space Threatens Independence of South Caucasus and Central Asian States

10-22-2003

On September 19, 2003, Russia and three of its trading partners – Belarus, Ukraine, and Kazakhstan – signed an agreement on a Common Economic Space (CES). The body is sometimes also referred as the United Economic Space (UES). This economic zone is a new attempt at integration between Russia, Belarus, Ukraine, and Kazakhstan, countries that comprise 90% of Russia’s trade with the Commonwealth of Independent States.

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Soviet legacy affects Kazak investments

08-11-2003

WASHINGTON, Aug. 11 (UPI) -- As Kazakhstan prepares to host a United Nations conference on investment in landlocked countries later this month, its own investment record is decidedly mixed.

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Aliev Dynasty or Azerbaijiani Democracy? Securing A Democratic Transition

08-06-2003

Azerbaijan’s ailing president Heydar Aliev’s bedside appointment of his son Ilham to the position of Prime Minister—and thus heir to the presidency—is forcing the Bush Administration to face the eventual passing of the Azeri leader.

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Confronting Kazakhstan’s ’Dutch Disease’

03-26-2003

As the United States is engaging in regime change in Iraq, the political turmoil in the Middle East is driving up the oil prices. Kazakhstan is flush with oil and gas revenues. However, without targeted government policy, the long term economic consequences of the hydrocarbon boom may lead to crowding out investment in the non-petroleum sectors and appreciation of the Kazakh currency, the tenge. If President Nazarbaev’s administration will continue to preside over increases in income disparities and underdevelopment, it eventually may face political instability due to inflated popular expectations. Kazakhstan has done little to prevent the Dutch disease, despite warnings from the World Bank.

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Eurasian States Grapple With Difficult Choices Over Looming Iraq Offensive

02-15-2003

Continued European Union resistance to US plans for a quick blitz of Iraq is forcing the countries of the Caucasus and Central Asia to choose sides. Caucasus nations have so far tended to side with the United States. Central Asian countries, meanwhile, appear divided with Uzbekistan generally backing Washington’s position, and Kazakhstan and Kyrgyzstan drifting toward the European viewpoint.

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New Russian Deployment Marks Changed Strategy

12-17-2002

The Bush Administration is reacting calmly to the Russian Air Force’s deployment of planes at the Kant air base in Kyrgyzstan, which Russia announced in early December. The deployment is relatively small and temporary, but the muted American response to it indicates broader trends in American strategic policy toward Russia.

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CIS Remains Top Priority in Russian Foreign Policy

04-24-2002

President Putin’s recent State of the Federation address clearly indicates that Russia puts increased emphasis on the CIS in its foreign policy. Moreover, it indicates an understanding that security and economic imperatives dictate that countries in the region pursue pluralistic and "multi-polar" policies. Moscow will emphasize its military ties, security cooperation, infrastructure projects, and cultural and educational cooperation to boost its influence in the region. Yet the military may not be satisfied with the official line, and the FSB is for the first time officially working outside Russia’s borders.

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Radio Liberty Launches Controversial Chechen Service

03-27-2002

The Bush Administration has allowed the North Caucasus broadcasts of Radio Liberty-Radio Free Europe to go ahead on April 3. These 15-minute broadcasts from Prague will include programming in Chechen, to which the Russian government strongly objects. The Bush Administration’s decision to take action may be interpreted as support for the Chechens, and may complicate its relationship with Putin at the time the U.S. troops are poised to take on terrorist elements in the Pankisi Gorge. However, the reasons for this action may be distant from the Caucasus and have roots in domestic policy and electoral politics.

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Central Asians Launch Another Regional Association

01-16-2002

The transformation of the Central Asian Economic Commonwealth into the Central Asian Cooperation (CAC) comes as regional cooperation is desperately needed in the broad array of issues, from national security to environmental protection. However, past performance, petty rivalries, and the lack of economic and trade expertise make the prognosis cautious for the newly created body at best. Lacking adequate budget and trained staff, the new organization may face a mountain of mandates and lack of resources - a well-known prescription for failure.

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The Obama administration has been caught flat-footed once again—this time in Kyrgyzstan. The administration didn’t anticipate the spring riots escalating and sweeping away corrupt President Kurmanbek Bakiyev and his clan. The U.S. was perceived as being too close to Mr Bakiyev, yet it did not move fast enough to distance itself from him and recognize the temporary government led by Roza Otunbayeva.

While Ms. Otunbayeva—who has served as Kyrgyzstan’s foreign minister three times, as well as its ambassador to Washington and London—is a moderate, she is also close to Moscow. Once in office, she immediately sent her deputy to meetings in the Kremlin. One likely topic at those talks was the future of America’s Manas base—no small annoyance to Russia, which also has a military outpost in Kyrgyzstan.

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