ARTICLES
Islamist Terrorists Target Oil Tanker Again
09-09-2010From Russian Competition to Natural Resources Access: Recasting U.S. Arctic Policy
06-15-2010In recent years, Russia has aggressively expanded its presence in the Arctic, while the United States has largely neglected this strategic area. Given the rising demand for oil and gas and the likelihood that Arctic sea-lanes will become more navigable, the U.S. should move resolutely to establish U.S. sovereign rights in the Arctic. Establishing a robust U.S. presence will require, among other steps, significantly increasing the number of U.S. polar-capable icebreakers. The U.S. should continue coordinating efforts with Canada and its other NATO allies, working with Russia when feasible and prudent. However, the U.S. should oppose Russia’s territorial claims in the Arctic without becoming party to the Law of the Sea Treaty.
Full textAuthoritarian Arms
08-20-2009President Hugo Chavez recently announced that Venezuela will purchase dozens of Russian tanks and other arms, signaling growing military ties between the two countries -- and trouble ahead in the hemisphere.
The deal comes amid tensions with Colombia as Mr. Chavez continues to support the narco-terrorism of the Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia (FARC) and as he campaigns against the United States using Colombian facilities for anti-drug efforts in the Andes.
Full textThe Russian Handicap to U.S. Iran Policy
04-22-2009There are voices in the Obama Administration who believe that the Kremlin is able and willing to exert pressure on Iran to prevent it from acquiring nuclear weapons. However, perceived geopolitical and economic benefits in the unstable Persian Gulf, in which American influence is on the wane, outweigh Russia’s concerns about a nuclear-armed Iran. The Kremlin sees Iran not as a threat but as a partner or an ad-hoc ally to challenge U.S. influence.
Full textAmerica, Russia, and the World: The Grim Reality of 2009
01-15-2009While
The world economy is already in the worst recession since the early 1980s, and the former Cold War rivals—the
Russia’s Gas War
01-13-2009Despite feverish negotiations with participation of the European Union,
With 11 people frozen to death, and tens of thousands shivering, this is a humanitarian disaster caused by the worst energy crisis in
The Oil-Price Roller Coaster : Global Challenges for The Obama Administration
12-18-2008The global financial crisis has caused a massive slide in energy prices, down to $40-$50 a barrel of NYMEX light sweet crude from the July 2008 highs of $147. While oil prices, along with other commodities, are expected to continue their fall in the short term, over the medium to long term, economic recovery is likely to generate growth in demand, and oil prices are expected to recover as energy markets tighten.
Moreover, lower oil prices are likely to impede the massive investment needed to meet rising demand by 2030, delay introduction of energy-saving technologies, and make alternative fuels less competitive. The tight credit environment will also make it more difficult for energy firms to obtain the necessary funding for financing the capital-intensive growth in production capacity, especially necessary for expensive and difficult offshore production, exploration and development, and heavy oil, oil sands, or oil shale production.
Full textThe New Cold War: Reviving The U.S. Presence in the Arctic
10-30-2008The
With the shrinking of the polar ice cap, extended navigation through the
OPEC Redux: Responding to the Russian-Iranian Gas Cartel
10-28-2008Steadily and stealthily, a natural gas cartel has emerged over the last seven years. On October 21 in
TNK-BP Deputy Chairman Blasts Russia Partners Not State
07-25-2008
Lord George Robertson, deputy chairman of TNK-BP’s board and former secretary-general of Nato, has blasted BP’s Russian partners at a closed-doors luncheon meeting at the Nixon Center in Washington on Thursday, July 25.
The comments took place as news emerged that Robert Dudley, TNK-BP’s British CEO, had been forced to leave Moscow to continue running the company from London due to his Russian visa being denied. Yet doubts remain whether he will be able to effectively run the company from overseas, which is being torn apart by a dispute between the BP and its Russian partners in the 50-50 joint venture. Additionally, the denial of visas by Russia for other key foreign BP personnel will reduce the joint venture efficiency, Robertson claimed. Simultaneously, BP has begun arbitration procedures for alleged violations of the shareholders’ agreement.
The Real World: The Oil Crisis-Desperate Measures
06-20-2008U.S. President George W. Bush and Senator John McCain have called for an expansion of
The biggest roadblock on the way to more U.S.-produced oil is the Democratic majority in the Congress and its fellow travelers. Oil-rich rulers, from King Abdullah I of
The Real World: Oil’s Creative Destruction
06-13-2008Oil demand appears in unexpected places, where there was very little demand in the recent past. The oil thirst is mounting in the Persian Gulf, Russia, even in Africa, due to expanding wealth, booming construction projects, and growing populations. Government fuel subsidies, typical in energy exporting countries, are increasing demand for gasoline. No wonder that the oil prices are going up, up and away.
According to Fatih Birol, chief economist at the International Energy Agency (IEA), the rising demand in the Gulf is second only to that of India and China, and it will increase in the future. Edward Morse, chief energy economist at Lehman Brothers, has stated that at least 1 million barrels a day did not reach world markets last summer because of rising consumption among energy producing nations, and the situation will repeat itself this summer.
Full textThe Shifting Geopolitics of BRIC and Oil
05-30-2008The announcement by Gazprom CEO Alexei Miller that his company is aiming for the largest market capitalization in the world is an unmistakable indicator how the global financial tectonic plates are shifting. Russian and Chinese energy and telecommunication companies are leading the global Fortune 100 list; India’s Tata and Mittal Steel have become true multinationals.
Russia, China and India are playing increasingly important roles as the world’s economic engines and as geopolitical players. And they have the US currency in their crosshairs. Today, Iran, Russia, Venezuela and even a US friend, Kuwait, are dumping the dollar in favor of the euro in energy transactions.
Full textThe Real World: Oil & Shifting Geopolitics
05-30-2008U.S. Secretary of the Treasury Henry (Hank) Paulson is heading to
The global financial tectonic plates are shifting, and we can only hope that the
The Real World: Runaway Oil
05-23-2008Many oil producing countries benefit greatly from the rising oil prices. Oil at $135 a barrel brings them windfall profits and allows social and economic development unlike anything people can remember.
Yet, there is a downside to the skyrocketing oil prices, which hurts the United States, Western Europe, China, Japan, and a slew of developing countries without significant hydrocarbon resources.
Full textOver a Barrel
05-11-2008As you go deeper into debt filling up your tank with $4 gas this weekend, look on the bright side - you’re helping to fund countries that hate you.
From
Trend Capital: Azerbaijan Facing Pressure From the Gas Cartel
05-11-2008Caspian gas producers will come under the increasing pressure from the troika of the founders of the natural gas cartel which has emerged stealthily and steadily over the last seven years. The governments in
The Real World: OPEC, Master of the Universe
03-28-2008Skyrocketing gasoline prices may be pushing the U.S. economy over the edge, but the oil-rich lords of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries oil cartel don’t give a hoot.
Chakib Khelil, OPEC’s president and Algeria’s oil minister, has warned that oil may go to $120 a barrel. Khelil is an optimist – if one or more of the major oil producers, such as Iran or Venezuela, gets embroiled in a conflict or otherwise destabilizes, oil could go up beyond $130 a barrel, experts say.
Full textGlobal Energy Transformation
01-01-2008The world is on the verge of a new world order. China and India’s development will soak up most of the world’s scarce oil, while oil-producing countries are consuming more and more of the black gold, International Energy Agency’s new report says.
Full text
Confronting Putin’s Push
02-14-2007Ariel Cohen
The cold shower Russian President Vladimir Putin unleashed on the United States at the international security conference in Munich should not have come as a surprise. After all, Mr. Putin himself and a host of other senior spokesmen, including his defense minister and one of the official heirs-apparent Sergey Ivanov and military Chief of Staff Gen. Yuri Baluevsky have said as much in the past.
The list of complaints Mr. Putin heaped against the United States is long. The main beef is that the American "hyperpower" is pursuing its unilateral foreign, defense, cultural and economic policy, disregarding international law and ignoring the U.N. (where Russia has a veto power). French President Jacques Chirac would be proud. However, Russia takes its opposition much further.
Full textState of the Union 2007: Recognizing the Threat of Strategic Oil Dependency
01-24-2007In the State of the Union address, President Bush called a spade a shovel. Building on his earlier statement that America is “addicted to oil”, he said:
For too long, our Nation has been dependent on oil. America’s dependence leaves more vulnerable to hostile regimes and to terrorists, who could cause huge disruptions of oil shipments, raise the price of oil, and do great harm to our economy.
The President called on Congress to double the capacity of the strategic petroleum reserve and for America to provide global leadership to encourage our friends and allies to consider policies to enhance their energy security. To improve the global energy balance, America’s friends and allies should increase their production of oil, natural gas, and substitute fuels; diversify their supplies as much as possible away from unstable regions; make fuel consumption more efficient through technological innovation; and increase their Strategic Petroleum Reserves (SPRs).
Full textPermanent Normal Trade Relations for Russia Would Benefit the U.S. and Russia
12-14-2006On November 19, 2006, America and Russia signed a bilateral market access agreement that details U.S. requirements for Russia"s accession to the World Trade Organization (WTO). Russia will now work to combine the bilateral accession agreements into a formal multilateral draft Protocol of Accession that the WTO General Council must approve before Russia can become a member of the WTO. As part of this process, Russia will likely face calls for additional commitments to bring its trade regime into compliance with WTO rules, including the elimination of domestic subsidies, improved customs and regulatory transparency, privatization of state-owned enterprises, and stronger intellectual property rights (IPR) protection.
Full textThe Bush-Putin Hanoi Summit: Iran, Georgia, Energy, and WTO Protocol on the Agenda
11-17-2006
On November 19, President George Bush and Russian President Vladimir Putin will discuss dominant global security issues—the Middle East, including Iran and Iraq, North Korea, and Georgia—at a summit in Hanoi, Vietnam. ?his meeting will take place alongside the meeting of the Asia Pacific Economic Cooperation Organization (APEC). Both presidents, along with U.S. Trade Representative Susan Schwab and the Russian Economics Minister German Gref, are also expected to preside over the signing ceremony of a bilateral protocol on Russia’s accession to the World Trade Organization (WTO).
Full textU.S. Interests and Central Asia Energy Security
11-15-2006In the past five years, real and present dangers to U.S. national security, especially Islamist terrorism and threats to the energy supply, have affected U.S. policy in Central Asia. The region has great energy potential and is strategically important, but it is land-locked, which complicates U.S. access and involvement there.
Full textAfter the G-8: The Future Orbit of U.S.–Russian Relations
09-15-2006In recent years, Russia has regained some of its former status, primarily through becoming a global energy and raw materials supplier and boasting a sustained economic growth rate of over 6 percent a year since 2000. Along with its elevated status, Russia has also begun to display some of its former Soviet-era hostility toward the West in general and the United States in particular, which may lead to unnecessary frictions and confrontations in the future. The moderator and the expert panelists assessed what the outcomes of the G-8 summit reveal about U.S.–Russian relations, as well as the future challenges and the opportunities for cooperation between the two countries. Although each speaker had distinct ideas as to the nature of U.S.–Russia relations, all four seemed in agreement that the best option for the U.S. and Russia is a pragmatic and realistic relationship based on the cooperative pursuit of common interests.
Full textThe Dragon Looks West: China and the Shanghai Cooperation Organization
09-07-2006In 1996, five countries—China, Russia, Tajikistan, Kyrgyzstan, and Kazakhstan—formed an organization, the Shanghai Five, to resolve border disputes among its members. With the addition of Uzbekistan in 2001, it became the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO), a grouping of Russia, China, and a number of under-developed and developing nations with little to bind them together save geography. Five years later, it has grown not only in size, with the granting of observer status to India, Iran, Mongolia, and Pakistan, but also in influence. The group focuses primarily on the security issues of the Chinese trifecta of “terrorism, separatism and extremism.” SCO member states have conducted a number of joint military exercises, and in 2003 created a joint counter-terrorism center in Tashkent, Uzbekistan.
Full textCountering Hugo Chávez’s Anti-U.S. Arms Alliance
09-06-2006by Stephen Johnson, Ariel Cohen, Ph.D., and William L. T. Schirano
Venezuelan President Hugo Chávez has embarked on a military buildup, to counter alleged U.S. plans to invade his country, and has recently visited Russia, Iran, China, Syria, and other countries to finalize purchases and lobby for a seat on the U.N. Security Council. Chavez’s aggressive policies could endanger U.S. allies in Latin America and a major source of U.S. oil imports.
Full text
President Bush’s Agenda for the G-8 Meeting in St. Petersburg
06-30-2006The G-8 meeting on July 15 and the Bush–Putin summit in St. Petersburg, Russia, may mark the most serious tests of U.S.–Russian and East–West relations since the collapse of the Soviet Union. Mutually amassed grievances have led some in Washington to question whether President George W. Bush should attend and whether Russia should remain in the G-8.
Full textThe U.S. Challenge at the Shanghai Summit
06-13-2006On June 15 members of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) will gather for their annual meeting at the birthplace of this Eurasian bloc—Shanghai. Since its modest economic beginnings in 2001, when it facilitated China’s return into its Central Asian backyard for the first time in almost 1,000 years, the SCO has become a Eurasian powerhouse with an increasingly strong military component. The United States should watch for anti-American developments at the SCO while exploring ways to establish a dialogue with it.
Full textThe Real Culprit Behind Price-Gouging: OPEC
05-31-2006by Ariel Cohen and William L T Schirano
With the summer driving season now upon us, no one expects a break in the price of gas at the pump. The realities of supply and demand, however, have not stopped some in Congress from seeking a quick fix to the complex problem of high fuel prices.
Full textReducing U.S. Dependence on Middle Eastern Oil
05-07-2006The United States is the largest oil importer in the world, bringing in 13.5 million barrels per day (mbd), which accounts for 63.5 percent of total U.S. daily consumption (20.6 mbd). [1] Oil from the Middle East (specifically, the Persian Gulf) accounts for 17 percent of U.S. oil imports, and this dependence is growing.
Full text
NATO’s Frontiers: Eurasia, the Mediterranean, and the Greater Middle East
01-09-2006Seventeen years since the fall of the Berlin Wall is sufficient time to reflect upon the amazing transformation of NATO and its frontiers. From bringing the Central European states back into their European home, whole and free, to extending membership to the former captive nations of Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania, NATO has done very well indeed.
Full textIncreasing the Global Transportation Fuel Supply
10-25-2005Despite soaring oil prices, oil and gas producers worldwide have failed to expand either supply or investment levels, falling short of meeting the rapidly growing global demand. The key challenge is ensuring an adequate supply of transportation fuel for cars and airplanes--not electricity, which can be generated from coal and nuclear reactors.
Full textBush at Fort Bragg: A Steadfast Course to Victory
06-29-2005In his speech before the men and women of the Airborne and Special Operations Forces at Fort Bragg, President George W. Bush clarified for the American people what is at stake in Iraq. He defined the enemy as Islamist totalitarians who are willing to kill innocent men, women and children—including fellow Muslims—for the sake of their ideology.
Full textCongress Should Lift OPEC’s Immunity
06-27-2005On June 21, the Senate voted in support of an amendment to the Energy Bill that would allow the federal government to sue the Organization for Petroleum Exporting States (OPEC). At a time when oil prices are climbing to ever-higher levels, this measure is a welcome first step towards reestablishing the free market in this strategically important sector. The move is long overdue and points the way to a second step: allowing private antitrust suits against OPEC.
Full textCelebrating the Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan Pipeline
06-13-2005Opened late last month, the Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan (BTC) oil pipeline has a capacity of 1 million barrels of oil per day and is the greatest achievement in the Caspian energy area. The pipeline will take oil from Azerbaijan and eventually Kazakhstan to the global markets—free of Russian and Iranian domination. After years of inaccessibility for the West, vast oil reserves under the Caspian Sea—comparable to those in Kuwait—are now within hand’s reach of the world’s commodity markets.
Full text
TENSION SEEPS BACK INTO US-RUSSIAN RELATIONS
04-20-2005The Bush administration’s desire to promote the globalization of democratic values is fueling tension in the United States’ relationship with Russia, a country that has experienced a dramatic erosion of its geopolitical influence over the past 18 months.
Full textThe ADVANCE Democracy Act: A Dose of Realism Needed, with Halle Dale
04-08-2005A wave of democratic change is spreading around the world, from Afghanistan to Iraq to Ukraine, from Lebanon to Kyrgyzstan. These historic events demonstrate that we live in a truly interconnected world. President George W. Bush’s words, spoken in his second inaugural address and State of the Union speech, are resonating around the world and moving crowds.
Full textBUSH ADMINISTRATION WELCOMES THE KYRGYZ REVOLUTION
03-29-2005Kyrgyzstan’s revolution is widely welcomed in Washington, and has some American policy planners contemplating the possibility of regime change in other Central Asian nations, especially Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan.
Full textRussian Oil After YUKOS: Implications for the United States
02-28-2005The Russian oil and gas sector’s new paradigm can be summarized in two words: "state domination." The free-market paradigm has been abandoned. In December 2004, the tax authorities bankrupted YUKOS, a major oil company, for alleged tax arrears and sold its main production unit, Yuganskneftegaz, to the state-owned oil company Rosneft, using a straw company as an intermediary. Chinese state banks apparently financed the purchase with $6 billion in loans. To top it off, Rosneft is merging with state-owned Gazprom, the largest natural gas company in the world.
Full textBush-Putin: The Toughest Summit Ever
02-23-2005MOSCOW -- Meetings with key Russian officials in this town last week reveal that the Putin Administration is facing a crisis of confidence. Russian Prime Minister Mikhail Fradkov’s Cabinet survived a Duma vote of no confidence on February 9th, but the real target of the abuse heaped on the Prime Minister by the nationalist and leftist opposition parties, which are artifacts of power elites, was never in doubt: Mr. Putin himself.
Full textFacing Putin in Bratislava
02-21-2005MOSCOW — President Bush’s summit with Vladimir Putin in Bratislava Thursday Feb. 24 will be the most difficult meeting two men ever had. A year after Mr. Putin handily won a second presidential term, his domestic and foreign challenges are snowballing, and his aura of an almost-superhuman invincibility is quickly dissipating. This is not to say Mr. Putin should be looked down upon or counted out: He is still in control.
Full textThe U.S. Should Oppose Dictatorship in Belarus
10-15-2004President Alexandr Lukashenka of Belarus has added a referendum to the October 17 parliamentary elections, asking Belarusians to allow him to participate in the next presidential election (prohibited by his own tailor-made constitution) and to remove the presidential term limits from the constitution.
Full textVenezuela: A flashing red light
08-18-2004After open-collar, red-shirt-clad Hugo Chavez claimed a victory in a referendum, the global oil outlook is gloomier than before. Geopolitically, Venezuela has become a flashing red light.
During his six years in power, Mr. Chavez has increasingly politicized oil, nationalized and mismanaged the national oil company PDVSA, and used its finances as a political kitty (up to $3.7 billion this year alone) to buy off the poor. Beyond Venezuela, he sees himself replacing Fidel Castro as the leader of Latin America’s radical left, opposing democracy, free markets, and American influence.
Minimizing Mischief in Venezuela, Stabilizing the U.S. Oil Supply
08-12-2004Venezuelan President Hugo Ch?vez is systematically leading his country into dictatorship by provoking internal conflict and characterizing his internal opponents as traitors. Beyond Venezuela, he sees himself replacing Fidel Castro as the leader of Latin America’s radical left--uniting the region against U.S.-style democracy, free markets, and American influence.
Full textWeak justice
03-18-2004When a U.S. presidential candidate contends the struggle against terrorism is only a matter for "justice and intelligence," the events in Madrid demonstrate this is not the case. Today’s justice, law enforcement and secret services — even in Europe — do not seem up to snuff.
Full textRecent Changes in Russia and Their Impact on U.S.-Russian Relations
03-09-2004As President Vladimir Putin awaits re-election for a second term with no significant challenges, U.S.-Russian relations are in limbo. The revival of statism and nationalism has seriously diminished Russia’s chances of being regarded as a close and reliable partner that is clearly committed to democratic values. Nevertheless, there are ways by which the United States and Russia can restore their cooperation on the basis of pragmatism and the pursuit of compatible national interests, including enhancing each other’s security, economic ties, democracy, and human rights.
Full textModels and Policies for Oil Production, Revenue Collection, and Public Expenditure: Lessons in Iraq
03-04-2004Countries in both the developed and the developing worlds rely on a stable and secure supply of oil. However, abuses and misallocations of oil revenues often lead to social and political instability and, at times, armed conflict. The broader the political cooperation and public consensus, and the greater the transparency in the management of oil revenues, the greater the chance that the supplier will remain stable.
Full textSaakashvili Visits Washington Amid Heightening Geopolitical Tension in the Caucasus
02-24-2004Georgian President Mikheil Saakashvili is in Washington for talks with top-level Bush administration officials on expanding strategic and economic cooperation. The Georgian leader’s US visit is coming at a time of geopolitical uncertainty in the Caucasus, with Moscow and Washington potentially on a collision course.
Full textGeorgian Inauguration Complicates US-Russian Relations
01-23-2004On January 25, US Secretary of State Colin Powell will attend Mikhail Saakashvili’s inauguration as president of Georgia. The transition of power there has some Washington strategists imagining ways to export Georgia’s "revolution" to other post-Soviet states. It has also led to consternation in Moscow which could further erode the spirit of partnership that the Kremlin forged with US President George W. Bush in late 2001.
Full textUS Officials Warily Monitor Russian Policy Debate on the Caucasus
01-09-2004US official are warily monitoring a policy debate in Russia over how Moscow should deal with its former Soviet neighbors. Many in Washington believe that the strong showing by nationalists in the recent Russian parliamentary election could prompt the Kremlin to toughen its stance towards states in the Caucasus and Central Asia.
Full textIsrael Becomes an Eurasian Oil Transit Country
12-23-2003Russia and Israel have formally agreed to ship oil from the Russian oil terminals in the Black Sea via the Israeli Eilat-Ashkelon pipeline, to Asian markets. This pipeline has the potential to greatly decrease the transit time for oil exports from the Mediterranean to the Far East. This development signals a new level of cooperation between Russia and Israel in the energy field, and emergence of the Jewish state as a player in Russian and Eurasian pipeline politics.
Full textU.S. Should Support Georgian Democracy and Independence
11-26-2003Eduard Shevardnadze has done his country of Georgia one last, important service—resigning as president. While the resignation avoided the bloodshed of the use of force against demonstrators in the streets, it leaves the country in a volatile situation, which the United States can help to stabilize.
Full textRiyadh Attack Threatens U.S. Energy Security
11-14-2003Al Qaeda’s massive November 8 attack in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia, killed 17 and wounded over 120. This attack targeted the Saudi royal family as well as foreign presence in this kingdom, which is vital to the oil economy. It also gave a boost to the ultimate goals of Osama bin Laden: driving the “infidels” from the Land of Two Mosques and toppling the monarchy. As the result, Western oil supply is at risk.
Full textThe YUKOS Affair: Protecting Democracy, Private Property, and the Rule of Law
11-07-2003The Kremlin’s attack on YUKOS, the major Russian oil company--including the arrest of Chairman and Chief Executive Officer Mikhail Khodorkovsky, seizure of his shares of YUKOS, and his subsequent resignation--is a watershed event in post-communist Russia. This development has negative implications on several levels, and its ripple effects are far from over. Obviously, President Vladimir Putin has been listening to those who do not care about Russian integration into the global economy and who are undermining his stated goal of doubling Russian gross domestic product by 2008.
Full textRestarting the Flow: Restoring Iraqi Oil Production
10-01-2003The Iraqi people desperately need to have their oil flowing again to the global market. Restarting the flow of Iraqi oil would be a win-win proposition, as not only the Iraqis, but also consumers around the world would benefit from bringing the Iraqi oil supply back on line.
Full textRussian Peacekeepers for Iraq?
09-26-2003At the Camp David summit which started on September 25, Presidents George W. Bush and Vladimir Putin should put the recent U.S.-Russian differences over the Iraq war behind them and close ranks on rebuilding Iraq and defeating al Qaeda. The senior leadership of both countries recognize that global terrorism is a strategic threat to their countries and to the West in general, whether in New York, the Caucasus, Moscow, or Baghdad.
Full textCorruption Case Sharpens US Policy Conundrum Towards Azerbaijan
09-18-2003A US corruption case that has implicated top Azerbaijani officials is not expected to substantively alter Bush administration policy towards Baku, experts in Washington believe. At the same time, the case stands to deepen Washington’s conundrum over its short- and longer-term interests in resource-rich Azerbaijan.
Full textBear and Camel Rapprochement
09-17-2003Geopolitical tectonic plates have shifted as the de-facto ruler of Saudi Arabia, Crown Prince Abdullah, completed his recent visit to Russia.
No longer sure of its prior close relationship with Washington, the Saudi monarchy is reaching out to the former empire it helped America to defeat in Afghanistan only 15 years ago.
Full text
Saudi-Russian Rapprochement: U.S. Should Beware
09-12-2003The Bush Administration needs to monitor a new geopolitical shift that is taking place following the visit of de-facto ruler of Saudi Arabia, Crown Prince Abullah to Russia on September 1-2. Moscow and Riyadh, old rivals, now claim to have found a common agenda, which spans oil, terrorism, and arms sales.
Full textRusso-Saudi Romance May Marginalize the Caspian
09-10-2003Geopolitical tectonic plates have shifted as the de-facto ruler of Saudi Arabia, Crown Prince Abullah completed his visit to Russia last week. Oil-exporting Caspian states should watch with concern how the two largest energy producers are beginning their elephantine dance. In the process, smaller oil exporters on Russia’s periphery, such as Kazakhstan and Azerbaijan, may suffer if collusion between the major players results in pressure to limit oil production in order to keep global supply down.
Full textEmerging global menace?
07-14-2003The September 11 terrorist attack taught the United States government a painful lesson — it must be alert to emerging threats, including terrorism against its military assets, citizens and allies. Some of these emerging threats, combined with the actions of terrorist Jihadi organizations, such as al Qaeda, may also generate political instability in key geographic areas and threaten pro-American regimes, such as in Central Asia.
Full textCaspian Energy Projects Coming to Grips with Iraq War
07-02-2003In the aftermath of the Iraqi war, leaders and countries in the Caspian littoral are competing to obtain maximum geopolitical and economic advantage by attracting investors through lower bureaucratic barriers and reduced political risk. The Iraq war has generated rethinking on the part of regional governments, who now have to adapt to a more competitive situation. Iran’s stance is still ambiguous with contradicting hard and soft lines, while some Balkan operators are beginning to involve in the pipeline discussion.
Full textTechnology Defines Iran’s Defiance
06-23-2003While student demonstrations continue growing in Iran, Tehran is relentless in defiance of the Great Satan -- America. The mullahs are betting on a blend of nationalism and military technology that will secure the regime’s survival. Nuclear weapons and missiles technology from Russia, North Korea, and Pakistan are supposed to shore up the 24 year old Shari’a rule and protect it from a U.S.-led regime-change operation. However, Tehran is coming under geopolitical pressure from the increased U.S. presence in the Persian Gulf and Iraq. As such, the hard-liners may be miscalculating: American technological superiority in military and intelligence fields, and the spread of global communications may be the trends that will overpower the Islamic regime in the near future.
Full textEnergy Security At Risk
05-23-2003Al Qaeda’s recent attacks in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia, and the closure of the U.S. Embassy there, have exposed the weaknesses of the kingdom’s security apparatus. These developments also further one of Osama bin Laden’s goals — to drive the "infidels" from the "Land of the Two Mosques" and topple the monarchy.
Full textU.S.-Russian Relations Threatened By Iraq Arms Sales
04-01-2003The Bush Administration has accused Moscow of selling sensitive military equipment to Saddam Hussein in violation of U.N. Security Council sanctions. During a March 24th telephone conversation, President George W. Bush discussed the sales of night vision goggles, anti-tank Kornet missiles, and Global Positioning System (GPS) jamming equipment with Russian President Vladimir Putin. All information regarding Russian sales was based on U.S. intelligence reports.
Full textAchieving Economic Reform and Growth in Iraq
03-25-2003The future of Iraq depends not only on the ouster of the repressive regime of Saddam Hussein but also on the ability of the new Iraqi leaders to develop policies that will spur real economic growth and reverse the damage to the economy caused by 40 years of gross mismanagement.
Full textWar of Ideas - The old-new battlefield
03-19-2003The resignation of Charlotte Beers, undersecretary of state for public diplomacy, calls for a reexamination of how the U.S. is waging a war of ideas against Islamist terrorism. Beers’s resignation comes as the State Department is facing increasing difficulty marshalling international public opinion in support of the coming war against Iraq. The battle for hearts and minds is not a short-term campaign but a protracted conflict that will last decades, if not generations. It should be guided by an integrated strategy of public diplomacy and political covert action, something that the United States has not attempted for half a century, since the early stages of the Cold War.
Full textBoom and Bust of Eurasia’s Oil Bonanza
03-17-2003As the threat of the war in the Middle East is driving the oil prices up, and the demand for energy is growing due to the Asian economic recovery and a cold winter, Eurasia is flush with oil and gas revenue. However, absent active government policy, long term economic consequences of the Eurasian oil bonanza may lead to crowding out investment in the non-petroleum sectors and appreciation of currencies, known in the economic circles as the Dutch disease. Moreover, lack of the "trickle down effect" may lead to increase in poverty and underdevelopment, and, especially in the case of the poorest Eurasian states, such as Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, and possibly in Turkmenistan, result in political instability due to inflation of expectations. So far, governments in the region are doing little to prevent the Dutch disease, which strikes oil economies around the world with uncanny regularity.
Full textA Private Russian Oil Pipeline Is Good for U.S. Energy Security
03-14-2003With the winds of war blowing over the Middle East and Venezuela’s oil production down by over 30 percent due to labor protests against President Hugo Chбvez, the United States is considering diversifying its sources of oil away from politically unstable regions. To achieve this, the U.S. should support development of a privately owned oil pipeline from Western Siberia to Murmansk, Russia. The U.S. government should make this project a top priority in bilateral security, economic policy, and business frameworks.
Full textRussia-U.S.: A Beautiful Friendship?
02-20-2003With the United States and Iraq moving closer to war, America is finding out who its friends really are.
Dozens of countries have lined up alongside the United States, including Great Britain, Spain and the Czech Republic. More can be expected to get on board if war breaks out.
Full text
The U.S., Russia Iran: the Coming Crisis
02-10-2003In the wake of the wave of global instability generated by the U.S.-North Korean nuclear weapons disagreement, and beyond Iraq and the war on terrorism, a future crisis is looming which may derail U.S.-Russian relations and upset an uneasy geopolitical equilibrium in Eurasia between Russia, the U.S., Iran and Turkey. This is the Iranian nuclear weapons program, which will undoubtedly strain U.S.-Russian relations and may escalate friction in the Caucasus and Central Asia. In view of pending successions and state weakness in Georgia and Azerbaijan, and brittle regimes from Ashgabat to Bishkek, escalation of tensions between regional and international powers may be fraught with destabilizing consequences.
Full textChina’s Quest for Eurasia’s Natural Resources
01-07-2003As China continues its impressive economic growth, access to natural resources and raw materials is becoming increasingly vital, and will feature more prominently on the policy agenda of the decision makers in Beijing. If China seeks to maintain its economic growth rate of 1985-2000, it will face a major raw materials shortage and will be forced to focus on Eurasia as a source of major energy resources, water and food. This is likely to lead to growing economic and political involvement in Russia and Central Asia.
Full textPrivatize Iraqi Oil, Post-war planning
12-11-2002As the U.N. Security Council is caught up in a chain of events that is likely to end up in removal of Saddam Hussein’s regime, the Bush administration should plan for the future of a post-Saddam Iraq. Economic issues will loom large. Iraq’s economy has been grossly mismanaged, and its people brutally repressed, for 40 years. Iraq desperately needs an alternative to the failed policies of its dictator. Sound economics are needed to help the Iraqi people rebuild their lives and their country after two decades of wars and four decades of repression under the current regime.
Full textStrategic Cooperation Key to U.S.-Russia Summit
11-15-2002When President George Bush and Russian President Vladimir Putin meet for their historic summit later this month, the agenda should focus on the growing number of foreign policy and security challenges in which closer cooperation is necessary, if not crucial. These challenges include war against Iraq; the war on terrorism; North Korea’s nuclear and ballistic missile programs; Russia’s proliferation of weapons of mass destruction (WMD) and related technologies to countries like Iran; and energy security.
Full textThey’re B-a-a-a-ck!
10-30-2002The antiwar movement is trying to stage a comeback. It may be back with a whimper rather than with a bang — but back it is.
Full textEurope’s Multilateral Utopia
10-18-2002The Europeans’ near-hysteria on Iraq is but one more symptom of a growing rift between America and its allies. That gap stems from increasingly divergent perceptions of the nature of the international framework, of security threats, and of desired outcomes. Even as the U.S. lays plans to make the world safe from Saddam’s menace, European analysts, academics, and diplomats are voicing shrill criticism of American values and President Bush’s policies.
Full textNew Great Games in the Caspian Will Involve Complex Stakes
10-11-2002The start of construction on the Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan pipeline in September marked the conclusion of the latest round in the new Great Game over Caspian Basin energy resources. Less than a month later, the major competitors in the contest for regional economic and political influence are already jockeying for position in the next stage.
Full textU.S.-Russian Energy Cooperation Is Good Policy
10-10-2002Senator Conrad Burns (R-MT), Representative Curt Weldon (R-PA), and other Members of Congress plan to introduce a concurrent resolution calling for further cooperation with the Russian Federation on energy development. They have a strong case. Among their concerns are over-dependence on oil from Saudi Arabia and imports from Iraq and other rogue states. Over 20 percent of America’s foreign oil comes from the highly unstable Persian Gulf. Even before September 11, the United States faced the untenable possibility that some of these imports could be, in Senator Burns’ words, "rogue oil"--that is, oil from countries that use the proceeds to support terrorism or to purchase or develop weapons of mass destruction.
Full textThe Road to Economic Prosperity for a Post-Saddam Iraq
09-25-2002As the Bush Administration and Iraqi opposition groups plan the future of a post-Saddam Hussein Iraq without its menacing arsenal of weapons of mass destruction (WMD), economic issues loom large. Iraq’s economy has been grossly mismanaged for 40 years, and its people desperately need an alternative strategy to supplant the failed policies of its dictator. Sound economics are needed to help them rebuild their lives and their country after two decades of wars and four decades of repression under the current regime.
Full textEurope-Russia-America: Determining Factors of Cooperation in the 21st Century
09-10-2002The first anniversary of 9/11 attack. A good time to take stock of where we are and where should we go. We should be going there together, regardless of what appeasers, isolationists and anti-globalists may say. Because in this war, we are together.
Full textIran’s Claim Over Caspian Sea Resources Threaten Energy Security
09-05-2002The need for Washington to focus its attention on energy security and diversification became clear as the war on terrorism began. The U.S. should strongly oppose Iran’s threatening military actions to claim a larger portion of the energy-rich Caspian Sea.
Full textCurbing U.S. Enthusiasm - The Russia-China alliance.
09-04-2002Russian Prime Minister Mikhail Kasyanov recently concluded a visit to China with unusual declarations concerning key strategic areas. Moscow and Beijing are trying to keep American security initiatives in check.
Full textWho’s Afraid of U.S.-Russian Friendship?
08-23-2002Is America’s honeymoon with Russia over? Last weekend Iraq’s ambassador to Moscow, Abbas Khalaf, announced that Russia will be signing a $40 billion, ten-year economic cooperation pact with Saddam. Does this mean Putin supports Iraq against the possible U.S. military operation? Only recently, Moscow declared that it will sell five more nuclear reactors to the mullahs in Tehran — and that the North Korea’s "Dear Leader," Kim Jong Il, will visit Russia.
Full textBush’s Accomplishment: Getting energy from Russia
06-20-2002The U.S. has declared energy cooperation with Russia as one of the main points of a strategic framework the Bush administration is developing with the Kremlin. The May Bush-Putin summit declarations, as well as conversations with government energy officials in Moscow and senior managers of the major Russian oil producers, indicate the beginnings of a major energy-policy trend.
Full textAfter the Summit: US Focuses on Eurasian Energy Cooperation
06-07-2002Russia is emerging as a key point on the US energy agenda. Washington is encouraging Moscow to assume a greater international role in energy markets. The US aim is to develop Russia and other Central Eurasian states into major oil suppliers, along with Mexico, Nigeria and other non-OPEC producers. However, energy-sector cooperation faces substantial obstacles, including lingering mutual suspicion and Russia’s inefficient energy network.
Full textWhy Russia’s Accession to the WTO Is in America’s Economic and Strategic Interests
05-22-2002Among the important topics of discussion for President George W. Bush and Russian President Vladimir Putin at their May 23-25 summit meetings in Moscow and St. Petersburg will likely be Russia’s accession to the World Trade Organization (WTO). The issue richly deserves their attention. Since China’s accession to the WTO in November 2001, Russia is the largest economy that is not yet a part of this global trade forum. Given Russia’s growing importance as a strategic partner of the United States in the war on terrorism and the growth in its economy over the past three years, Russia’s accession to the WTO is clearly in America’s interest.
Full textThe Bush-Putin Summit: Crafting a 21st-century Security Framework
05-22-2002When President George W. Bush and Russian president Vladimir Putin meet for summits in Russia and Rome later this month, they will have an opportunity to define a new framework for U.S.-Russia strategic relations that extends beyond the Cold War. The meetings in St. Petersburg and Moscow on May 23-26 and at the NATO-Russia summit in Rome two days later will allow the two leaders to focus on matters of national security and economic policy. This can become a foundation for a new 21st-century security architecture.
Full textU.S.-Russia Summit Priorities: The Strategic Framework, a Nuclear Arms Agreement, and Trade
05-14-2002When President George W. Bush and Russian President Vladimir Putin meet for summits in Russia and Rome later this month, they will have an opportunity to define a new framework for U.S.-Russia strategic relations that extends beyond the war on terrorism. Such a framework could lay the foundation for a new 21st century security architecture while facilitating Russia’s integration into the European-North Atlantic security and economic environment.
Full textBringing Russia into an Anti-Saddam Coalition
04-29-2002As President George Bush prepares for the upcoming summit with Russian President Vladimir Putin in St. Petersburg and Moscow on May 23-26, he must look for ways to encourage Russia to become a full ally in the war on terrorism and a strategic partner in the new global security environment. This means encouraging Russia to support an effort to make the world safe from the growing threat posed by Saddam Hussein and his weapons of mass destruction (WMD).
Full textEchoes of Venezuela Reverberate in Eurasia
04-23-2002The repercussions of the failed coup against Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez extended halfway across the world to the shores of the Caspian, where the leaders of the littoral nations are set to meet to discuss dividing the sea’s abundant energy resources. Instability in Venezuela, the world’s fourth-largest oil supplier, has Eurasian states scrambling to seize the moment of opportunity for their own energy sectors.
Full textUS Officials Give High Marks to Karimov on Washington Visit
03-18-2002The US government is putting the best face possible on Uzbek President Islam Karimov’s visit to Washington. Officials from the State Department, National Security Council and the Pentagon stress that Karimov promised to improve Uzbekistan’s human rights record, adding that they believe Karimov is sincere in his desire to promote civil society in the Central Asian nation.
Full textMoscow, Washington and Tbilisi Wrestle with Instability in the Pankisi Gorge
02-19-2002Reports that al Qaeda fighters, possibly including Osama bin Laden himself, have found refuge in Georgia are stoking pressure for outside military intervention. Top Russian officials are once again hinting that Moscow may feel compelled to intervene militarily to contain Islamic radicals in Georgia. Georgian President Eduard Shevardnadze is categorically opposed to Russian intervention in the Pankisi Gorge, but he has indicated that he would consider a Georgian-US joint operation.
The top US diplomat in Georgia, Philip Remler, helped focus attention to the brewing crisis in the Pankisi with an announcement that al Qaeda fighters had infiltrated the region. Georgian leaders have not disputed Remler’s assertion.
SELECTED RECENT 
